Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Little Canada, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:01PM Sunday September 27, 2020 12:21 PM CDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 1:26AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MN
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location: 45.01, -93.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 271105 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

The well advertised pattern change is underway with the jet stream starting to take a deep dive to the south allowing much colder air to flow down over the forecast area.

A short wave this afternoon will bring the chance for isolated to scattered showers across the area from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. There could be some thunder as well, especially in the northwest part of the area where the instability will be better. QPF is light with this system with a tenth of an inch or two in the northwest to perhaps a few hundredths for the rest of the CWA. Highs today will be in the 60s with breezy west/northwest winds gusting to around 30 kts in western parts of the CWA to gusts reaching past 20 knots in the eastern portions of the CWA. Any showers should end during the evening leading to a dry overnight and beginning to Monday. Low temperatures Monday morning will fall into the 40s area wide.

On Monday a strong shortwave will move from north to south through the CWA bringing another chance for isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. Any showers that do develop Monday afternoon will be fighting dry low level air so rain amounts will be very light, maybe a few hundredths. High Temperatures on Monday will only be in the 50s with breezy northwest winds gusting past 20 knots in the afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

The week ahead will be dominated by a very amplified pattern across the western hemisphere, with a deep trough over the Gulf of Alaska, ridge across western North America, a trough down into the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS, and another blocking high up into the north Atlantic. This will give us persistent northwest flow, cooler temperatures, and several chances for light precipitation as shortwaves rotate through in the cyclonic flow.

The warmest day of the long term comes Tuesday, when chances of seeing highs into the low 70s northeast of the Buffalo Ridge out in western MN are looking increasingly likely, as we get into the warm sector of a surface low tracking through the Hudson Bay region. We'll also see slightly higher mid level heights on Tuesday, which will greatly limit shower potential, with the MPX area looking to remain mostly dry as the mid-level cold pool briefly moves away from our area.

Wednesday, a deep h5 low will come down from Hudson Bay toward the Great Lakes, with a strong shortwave extending to the west dropping south across WI/MN. This will bring back the threat for diurnally driven showers on Wednesday and also bring down the core of the coldest air we will see during this cool spell, with h85 temps looking to remain below 0C area wide from Thursday through the weekend. This will spell daily highs in the 40s/50s with overnight lows in the 30s. The coldest mornings look to be Friday and Saturday, which for many south of I-94 will be their first frost/freeze of the fall (which is pretty much right on schedule climatologically). How cold we get will depend on winds and cloud cover, but 10th percentile lows for both mornings are into mid/upper 20s north of I-94 and low/mid 30s south of I-94, so there's potential for both mornings to be cooler than currently forecast depending on how the placement of surface pressure centers and cloud cover goes. For precip chances, we should see scattered showers again Wednesday and Thursday, we look to get a break from them Friday, then get back into shower activity over the weekend as more shortwave energy dives south across the region. Even though there will be ample chances for precipitation, none of the chances look to amount to much, with our dry weather pattern looking to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

VFR conditions except MVFR possible with rain showers this afternoon at AXN and STC. The showers will move from northwest to southeast reaching all terminals except for EAU.

KMSP . VFR conditions throughout. Showers possible this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Tue . VFR. Slight Chc -SHRA. Wind WSW at 10G20 kts. Wed . VFR. Slight Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

UPDATE . CEO SHORT TERM . CEO LONG TERM . MPG AVIATION . CEO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi28 minW 13 G 2010.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1005 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN10 mi28 minW 12 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F44°F54%1005.2 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi26 minW 1010.00 miFair60°F43°F56%1005.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN12 mi36 minW 13 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F44°F52%1004.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi46 minW 7 mi57°F44°F63%1005.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN15 mi28 minW 14 G 2710.00 miFair61°F44°F54%1004.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN22 mi28 minW 15 G 2410.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

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Last 24hr3E4S8SE4SE3N3N95N84NW5CalmW4W4CalmCalmCalmW11W6W6W5W7W8W13
G20
1 day agoSE9
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W6W8W8NW5NW4CalmS3CalmCalmSE3SE5CalmCalmCalmS4SE4SE5
2 days ago44N4NE5N5NE8N5NE4CalmCalmS3SE4E3SE6SE8SE7SE8SE6SE5SE8SE6S6S11SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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