Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Little Canada, MN

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:44PM Friday April 3, 2020 12:08 AM CDT (05:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 3:41AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MN
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location: 45.01, -93.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 030426 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1126 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Changes were pretty minimal during the short term period, with little changes made to the winter storm that will impact the area tonight into Friday. Basically, we're still looking at up to 0.2" of ice accumulations, with snow amounts generally an inch or less. The one thing that should help limit the impacts of the freezing rain on the roads is the fact that it will just plain rain ahead of the transition to wintry precipitation. Wet roads will not cool as fast as dry roads would, so this should help minimize the impacts from icing on roads, save for overpasses.

This is an impressive system out there this afternoon. The cold front moved little this morning, but has started its trek east this afternoon. The temperature gradient across the front is pretty strong. For example, at 1130 this morning, the temperatures across Yellow Medicine county ranged from 54 at Granite Falls on the east end of the county to 36 in Canby out west (a distance of about 40 miles). Beside the temperature gradient, we saw thunderstorms develop in central SoDak where temperatures were in the upper teens! So where has our precip been? Well, we've been under the influence of the ridge, while forcing with the front has all been well behind it. That starts changing this afternoon. First, showers developing over northern MO/southern IA are associated with a surge in the LLJ, which the RAP shows reaching to the Twin Cities around 00z, so we expect we'll start to see some warm sector showers push into south central MN this afternoon that will quickly move up into eastern central MN/western WI by 00z, which is what the HRRR has been depicting. Model spread for frontal timing is pretty low, so used HREF and a blend of the short term models to drive the temperature drop across the area and drive the transition from rain to something wintry. As for thunder chances, those look best with the LLJ surge this afternoon into the evening mentioned earlier, when the RAP shows best LIs dropping to around -1 (which is what we are seeing now out on the MN/SD border that's helping drive the thunderstorm activity out there).

For Friday, it will be cold. Airmass behind the cold front is very cold, as evidenced by temps around +10F at noon in the western Dakotas. The one advantage we'll have to tomorrow is there will be mostly sunny skies the afternoon, but it will still be a struggle to hit 40 in MN and have forecast highs for Friday that are 20 to 30 degrees colder than what we'll see today. Going into Friday night, the two changes that came about were to speed up the departure of PoPs in WI and drop temps a few degrees, with clear skies and a cold and dry airmass overhead. Should see lows Saturday morning range from the mid teens in western MN to the mid 20s in southeast MN and western WI.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Fortunately, the Friday cold snap will last all of one day. We'll quickly see upper heights build over the weekend as a flat ridge builds in, with quasi-zonal flow expected through Tuesday. Wednesday still looks to represent our pattern shift day, with a northern stream trough coming out of the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes that will transition us to a cooler northwest flow to end the week.

For Saturday through Tuesday, not much has changed with the forecast, other than a drying out of the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. There continues to be a prolonged period of chance pop mention from Sunday night through Tuesday as we continue to get peppered by weak waves. The periods that show the best model agreement for potential showers are Sunday night into Monday morning and Monday night into Tuesday. For temperatures, we'll see highs in the 40s on Saturday, up into the 50s on Sunday, with the NBM still hitting 60s on Monday and Tuesday. 70s still look possible on Tuesday, though what happens with cloud cover from precipitation Monday night will determine whether or not that will be achievable on Tuesday across southern MN.

From Wednesday on, we transition to northwest flow. However, there continues to be lots of disagreement with how long lasting and intense this cold snap will be. How strong the trough digging into the Great Lakes is for the end of the week will determine whether or not we see another storm system for the end of the the week. Looking back at the cold season just passed, anytime we saw these sorts of cool downs in the mean ensemble patterns in the one to two week out portion of the forecast, they almost always ended up not being as extreme or long lasting as they were indicated in the one to two week out timeframe, so we'll see what happens this time around.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Precipitation will continue to spread into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tonight, with with rain eventually changing over to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow behind a cold front trailing behind the leading edge of precipitation. Wintry precipitation is already ongoing at AXN/RWF, with the changeover expected shortly after midnight at STC/MKT and towards sunrise at MSP. A few hours of a rain/snow mix is possible tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise precipitation is expected to remain predominately rain at RNH/EAU. Confidence is low on when precipitation will end tomorrow with light snow or rain possibly lingering into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected at all terminals shortly after the start of the period, eventually dropping to IFR through the rest of the night. IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon, with scattering to VFR possible tomorrow evening. Southeast winds will abruptly change to northwesterly as a cold front moves east through the region. Wind speeds of 10-15 kts are expected through the period with gusts around 20 kts possible through the morning.

KMSP . MVFR rainfall should be ongoing by the start of the period, with ceilings dropping to IFR shortly after.. A brief period of freezing rain is still possible tomorrow morning after the cold front moves through the terminal. Any freezing rain should quickly change over to light snow or a light rain/snow mix, with light precipitation potentially lingering into the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat-Sun . VFR. Wind VRB <5 kts. Mon . VFR to MVFR. Chance -RA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for MNZ044- 050-051-059-066>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ041-047- 048-054>056-064.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ042-043-049- 057-058-065-073-074-082-091.



SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . MPG AVIATION . ETA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi16 minWSW 810.00 miOvercast53°F43°F69%1014 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN10 mi16 minSSW 510.00 miLight Rain48°F42°F80%1014.2 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi14 minSW 910.00 miOvercast56°F42°F62%1013.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN12 mi14 minSW 610.00 miOvercast55°F44°F67%1013.2 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi34 minSSE 11 G 1510.00 miOvercast57°F41°F55%1013.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN15 mi16 minW 510.00 miLight Rain48°F41°F77%1013.4 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN22 mi16 minSW 128.00 miLight Rain42°F37°F85%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

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2 days agoCalmE3E3E3CalmNE5CalmNE5E6NE6NE10NE6NE7N53E6E10E7E9E4CalmSE4S5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.