Friday, December6, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little Canada, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:33PM Friday December 6, 2019 12:28 AM CST (06:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.01, -93.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 060441 AAC AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1041 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 719 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Stratus is extensive across the region. Models aren't handling it well at all. It appears this stratus will persist for much of the night and maybe into Friday morning. Forecast soundings are too aggressive with dry air aloft eroding the lower level stratus. This resulted in a forecast update increasing sky cover into Friday morning and temperatures by several degrees into the teens to low 20s for lows tonight.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 410 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

A passing cold front will result in a wind shift to the north/northwest and usher in much colder air tonight. Depending upon the amount of cloud cover remaining behind the cold front this evening, will impact the temperatures Friday morning. If more clouds hold on, temperatures will be warmer. However, if the clouds move out faster, the low temps will likely need adjusted colder.

Several high res models attempt to develop a low cloud layer through 06z Friday while others clear out. Confidence is low, but temperature and sky cover trends will have to be monitored in case the temperatures need to be decreased for tonight. High pressure will cause cooler temps on Friday, but return flow develops by the afternoon with temperatures recovering into the teens and 20s. Friday night lows will remain in the teens with light winds from the SW.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 410 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

The long term forecast was focused mostly on the shot of snow Sunday night-Monday and then the arctic cold for next week.

Southerly flow will continue Saturday before a cold front comes through Saturday night. Models have been painting light QPF in the warm sector, particularly the NAM, implying freezing drizzle. The NAM is notorious for an overly saturated boundary layer which is likely the cause. There may be some low clouds, but the saturated layer is too thin to support any precip.

The first front will pass through Saturday night, but the second coming through Sunday night will be much more influential. At the same time, a clipper system will be tracking southeast along the same cold front across the Canadian Rockies and into the northern Plains. Snow is expected to spread east, along and behind the cold front Sunday night and Monday morning. The temperature profile suggests there may be two dendritic growth zones, one between 10-15kft and possibly another around 2kft depending on the degree of low level cold air advection. Isentropic lift isn't the best with the system positively tilted, but the system will be tapping into deeper moisture as it tracks east across the mid Mississippi Valley. QPF has increased on the deterministic models to between 0.25-0.4 inches along a stripe across the CWA. The ensembles aren't quite this wet, aside from the highest members. So, still some uncertainty with this snow forecast. Snow ratios should be high as temperatures fall into the teens, thinking at least 15:1. This is bolstered by light winds along the cold front that only begin to strengthen toward the end of the snow. Deterministic models would suggest 4-8 inches, while the ensemble mean would be more like 2-4.

Behind that system, very cold air will bleed south for the rest of the period. Temperatures will drop below zero Monday night and may not rise back above zero until Thursday. GFS appears a bit too cold with lows in the mid -20s Tuesday night and highs in the negative teens Wednesday. The ECMWF is a bit more reasonable. The official forecast took roughly the 50th percentile for temps, which was a few degrees below the NBM. MOS is probably having a negative influence keeping temps milder given near record temps, fresh snowpack and light winds Tuesday night. Cloud cover is always a concern, but at the moment models indicate mostly clear conditions. A few records could be tied or broken. MSP records are -3 for a high and -14 for a low on Wednesday, pretty close to the current NDFD forecast.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Extensive MVFR stratus doesn't seem to be going anywhere, contrary to the model guidance. Since there are virtually no improving trends, will hold onto the stratus well into Friday morning before mixing and scattering out late morning. This is a low confidence forecast, however.

KMSP . Cigs should remain MVFR overnight and into Friday morning. It isn't clear if/when the stratus will scatter out, but it's not appearing likely until at least mid morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind SW 10kts. Sun . VFR/MVFR. IFR/-SN Sun night. Wind SW 10kts bcmg N late. Mon . IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . BORGHOFF SHORT TERM . BPH LONG TERM . BORGHOFF AVIATION . BORGHOFF


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi36 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F23°F72%1022.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN10 mi36 minNNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F24°F73%1022.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi34 minNNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F23°F72%1021.7 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN12 mi34 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F24°F75%1021.3 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi34 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast32°F26°F80%1021.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN15 mi36 minNW 810.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1022.5 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN22 mi36 minN 1010.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1022.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4SE6SE7SE7S6S8S7S7S4E3CalmS3CalmNW7NW10NW8NW12N10
G18
N14
G25
NW10NW7
1 day agoW6NW3W5CalmW6W6W5W7W5W6NW9NW10NW7NW7W9W6W8W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
2 days agoSE3SE3SE3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW6W6W5W10W7W10W8W8W5W6W8W7W9W5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.