Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
|Sunrise 7:34AM||Sunset 4:33PM||Friday December 6, 2019 12:28 AM CST (06:28 UTC)||Moonrise 2:05PM||Moonset 1:32AM||Illumination 69%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 060441 AAC AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1041 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
UPDATE. Issued at 719 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
Stratus is extensive across the region. Models aren't handling it well at all. It appears this stratus will persist for much of the night and maybe into Friday morning. Forecast soundings are too aggressive with dry air aloft eroding the lower level stratus. This resulted in a forecast update increasing sky cover into Friday morning and temperatures by several degrees into the teens to low 20s for lows tonight.
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 410 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
A passing cold front will result in a wind shift to the north/northwest and usher in much colder air tonight. Depending upon the amount of cloud cover remaining behind the cold front this evening, will impact the temperatures Friday morning. If more clouds hold on, temperatures will be warmer. However, if the clouds move out faster, the low temps will likely need adjusted colder.
Several high res models attempt to develop a low cloud layer through 06z Friday while others clear out. Confidence is low, but temperature and sky cover trends will have to be monitored in case the temperatures need to be decreased for tonight. High pressure will cause cooler temps on Friday, but return flow develops by the afternoon with temperatures recovering into the teens and 20s. Friday night lows will remain in the teens with light winds from the SW.
LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 410 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
The long term forecast was focused mostly on the shot of snow Sunday night-Monday and then the arctic cold for next week.
Southerly flow will continue Saturday before a cold front comes through Saturday night. Models have been painting light QPF in the warm sector, particularly the NAM, implying freezing drizzle. The NAM is notorious for an overly saturated boundary layer which is likely the cause. There may be some low clouds, but the saturated layer is too thin to support any precip.
The first front will pass through Saturday night, but the second coming through Sunday night will be much more influential. At the same time, a clipper system will be tracking southeast along the same cold front across the Canadian Rockies and into the northern Plains. Snow is expected to spread east, along and behind the cold front Sunday night and Monday morning. The temperature profile suggests there may be two dendritic growth zones, one between 10-15kft and possibly another around 2kft depending on the degree of low level cold air advection. Isentropic lift isn't the best with the system positively tilted, but the system will be tapping into deeper moisture as it tracks east across the mid Mississippi Valley. QPF has increased on the deterministic models to between 0.25-0.4 inches along a stripe across the CWA. The ensembles aren't quite this wet, aside from the highest members. So, still some uncertainty with this snow forecast. Snow ratios should be high as temperatures fall into the teens, thinking at least 15:1. This is bolstered by light winds along the cold front that only begin to strengthen toward the end of the snow. Deterministic models would suggest 4-8 inches, while the ensemble mean would be more like 2-4.
Behind that system, very cold air will bleed south for the rest of the period. Temperatures will drop below zero Monday night and may not rise back above zero until Thursday. GFS appears a bit too cold with lows in the mid -20s Tuesday night and highs in the negative teens Wednesday. The ECMWF is a bit more reasonable. The official forecast took roughly the 50th percentile for temps, which was a few degrees below the NBM. MOS is probably having a negative influence keeping temps milder given near record temps, fresh snowpack and light winds Tuesday night. Cloud cover is always a concern, but at the moment models indicate mostly clear conditions. A few records could be tied or broken. MSP records are -3 for a high and -14 for a low on Wednesday, pretty close to the current NDFD forecast.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
Extensive MVFR stratus doesn't seem to be going anywhere, contrary to the model guidance. Since there are virtually no improving trends, will hold onto the stratus well into Friday morning before mixing and scattering out late morning. This is a low confidence forecast, however.
KMSP . Cigs should remain MVFR overnight and into Friday morning. It isn't clear if/when the stratus will scatter out, but it's not appearing likely until at least mid morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind SW 10kts. Sun . VFR/MVFR. IFR/-SN Sun night. Wind SW 10kts bcmg N late. Mon . IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNW 10-15 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.
UPDATE . BORGHOFF SHORT TERM . BPH LONG TERM . BORGHOFF AVIATION . BORGHOFF
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Downtown Holman Field, MN||6 mi||36 min||NNW 7||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||31°F||23°F||72%||1022.7 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||10 mi||36 min||NNW 10||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||32°F||24°F||73%||1022.8 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||11 mi||34 min||NNW 8||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||32°F||23°F||72%||1021.7 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||12 mi||34 min||NNW 9||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||32°F||24°F||75%||1021.3 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||13 mi||34 min||NNW 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||32°F||26°F||80%||1021.7 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||15 mi||36 min||NW 8||10.00 mi||Overcast||32°F||23°F||69%||1022.5 hPa|
|Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN||22 mi||36 min||N 10||10.00 mi||Overcast||32°F||23°F||69%||1022.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSTP
Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||SE||SE||SE||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W||W |
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (1,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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