Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Little Canada, MN

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:14PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:56 PM CDT (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Canada, MN
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location: 45.01, -93.11     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 200055
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
755 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Issued at 739 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 401 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
quiet start to the forecast period through this evening, but
thunderstorm chances return overnight and through the day tomorrow
as a cold front advances through the region. Southwest flow has
developed this afternoon on the back side of departing high
pressure and ahead of a cold front dropping south across the
international border. This warm advection will bring in much more
humid air through tomorrow morning, with upper 60s dewpoints
already present across southwest minnesota and low to mid 70s
dewpoints over northeast nebraska expected to eventually make
their way into the region. With 2000-3000 j kg MUCAPE building in
this increasingly unstable atmosphere, a compact shortwave
skirting just south of the minnesota iowa border is expected to
intitiate a thunderstorm complex overnight, and track southeast
through iowa. There is a chance this complex initiates far enough
north to impact the i-90 corridor, but expect the bulk of this
activity to remain south of the cwa. North of this complex, some
guidance suggests a band of thunderstorms induced by forcing along
the low-level jet forming out ahead of the advancing cold front.

Best chances for these thunderstorms will be across western and
southern minnesota, with uncertainty on how far east they will
linger into central and eastern minnesota as forcing will be
waning after sunrise. Can't rule out some isolated damaging wind
gusts or large hail with these thunderstorms given the unstable
atmosphere in place.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms looks possible along
the cold front as it passes from central minnesota into west-
central wisconsin late tomorrow morning into the evening. Despite
up to 2000 j kg MUCAPE present out ahead of this front,
thunderstorm development will be conditional on how widespread
cloud cover will be during the day and on whether any shortwave
energy can pivot this far south from the upper low lover manitoba.

For now, cloud cover looks to remain fairly stout throughout the
day so have kept pops in the chance range to account for this
conditional threat. If thunderstorms are able to initiate along
the front, bulk shear of 30- 40 kts along with the unstable
atmosphere will be sufficient to support at least an isolated
severe weather threat Tuesday afternoon- evening. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail would be the primary hazards.

Temperatures Tuesday will depend on the amount of cloud cover
present during the afternoon, but a muggy day is expected as
dewpoints rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs in the low to
mid 80s are possible if skies clear out, with highs in the 70s low
80s looking more likely under more cloud cover. Much cooler and
drier air filters in behind the front Tuesday night.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 401 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
not much has changed with thinking in the long term, with what
will be two of the nicest weather days of the year Wednesday and
Thursday, followed by increasing humidity and chances for
thunderstorms this weekend.

For Wednesday and Thursday a strong h5 low by james bay with a
building ridge in its wake across central canada will promote the
development of a surface high over the canadian prairies that will
slowly spread across the upper ms valley Wednesday and Thursday.

This will drop dewpoints down into the 40s and 50s, with highs in
the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
absolutely perfect weather to kick off the mn state fair.

For the end of the week, a strong short wave will move across
southwestern canada into the canadian prairies. This will knock
down the canadian ridge and will leave behind an upper trough that
will remain across western canada into the northern CONUS through
the weekend. This first wave will send a cold front into mn Friday
night, but as this upper wave moves toward western hudson bay,
we'll see the upper flow become more parallel to the front, which
means once this front arrives, we will be dealing with it bouncing
between eastern mn and the eastern dakotas until a kicker wave
finally shunts it east of the area Monday or Tuesday next week.

Southerly winds with the front in the area will allow dewpoints to
creep back up, likely back into the mid 60s low 70s. This
moisture in turn will support the development of an unstable
airmass and the result is the prolong period of pops in the
forecast starting Friday afternoon in western mn and lasting
through Monday. Through all of this, the windows where storms look
most likely are Friday night when the front initially arrives.

After that, it will retreat west on Saturday before returning
Sunday, so precip chances really pick up again Sunday into Monday.

Given instability shear parameters, some severe weather would be
possible with any activity we see, so that will be something to
keep an eye on as we approach the weekend.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 739 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
vfr with mostly clear skies through this evening. Ra tsra chances
develop overnight at axn rwf rnh and after daybreak at stc msp.

Ceilings will begin to lower overnight with MVFR conditions
expected by tomorrow morning at mn terminals and by late morning
at rnh eau. Ifr ceilings appear possible across western mn where
ceilings will be lower. A thunderstorm complex is expected to
develop over southwest mn and generally progress east along the
i-90 corridor overnight, but confidence is low on how widespread
thunderstorm coverage becomes north of this complex through
tomorrow morning. Best chances for ra tsra will be at
axn rwf mkt, but have maintained prob30 mentions at all mn

Kmsp... Ceilings are expected to lower overnight, with MVFR
ceilings expected by mid-morning. Two periods of ra tsra appear
possible: late morning early afternoon and then again tomorrow
evening, but confidence remains low in how widespread coverage
will be at the terminal.

Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Jpc
short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
aviation... Jpc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi2.1 hrsSSE 310.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1014.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN10 mi2.1 hrsSSW 510.00 miFair77°F61°F58%1014.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F64%1015.2 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN12 mi2.1 hrsVar 410.00 miClear73°F60°F65%1014.9 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN13 mi99 minN 010.00 mi64°F60°F88%1016.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN15 mi2.1 hrsS 310.00 miFair74°F60°F62%1014.3 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN22 mi2.1 hrsS 510.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTP

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm--Calm----CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalm3S3--W8--SW7S8S9S9S4SE3
1 day agoSE5SE6CalmSE9NE4--NW10NE3NW13
2 days agoCalm--Calm--CalmCalm--CalmS7SE6--SE3S6S9SW9SE6S10S10SE8S11SE10S12SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.