Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glen Arbor, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A relatively stagnant weather pattern remains in place early this morning, with a stalled frontal boundary stretched across Michigan. This boundary continues to act as a focus for deeper moisture, with a narrow band of light to moderate showers lifting slowly northward through the early morning hours, generally centered near and just north of the M-32 corridor. A bit of embedded drizzle and patchy fog also continues in spots, especially where showers passed earlier and surface temperatures cooled into the upper 40s.

As the day progresses, broad forcing from subtle upper-level energy passing overhead, combined with modest low-level convergence along the boundary, will maintain off and on shower chances. Heaviest rainfall potential looks to focus across the tip of the Mitt northward, where deeper moisture and better mid- level support overlap, especailly this afternoon/ evening.
Cannot rule out some locally heavier rainfall totals approaching 0.50" by this evening in the aforementioned areas. Meanwhile, areas further south will see lighter, more sporatic activity, or even mostly dry conditions if showers fail to overcome shallow dry layers near the surface. Also, tightening pressure gradients will turn winds breezy this afternoon into the early overnight hours with occasional gusts across northwest Lower reaching 15-20 mph at times.

Cloud cover will be slow to break, especially across northeast Lower and eastern Upper where cooler east-northeast flow off the lakes continues. Inland southwest locations may sneak a few peeks of sun late in the day. Temperatures will remain cool under the clouds and showery regime, with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Areas that do see sun, especially south and west of M-72, could nudge near 70/ low 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The slow moving frontal boundary remains draped across the area Friday night, with a narrow axis of deeper moisture and weak lift lingering through early Saturday. This may keep a few showers going overnight, especially across the tip of the Mitt and into eastern Upper, but coverage should gradually diminish into Saturday morning as the boundary weakens and surface high pressure starts to expand southward from Ontario.

Saturday is shaping up as a drier and slightly milder day overall. While some low clouds may linger early, especially north and east, drier air filtering in from the northeast will help aide in eroding cloud cover as the day progresses. Highs Saturday will range from the low 60s near the lakeshores to near 70/ low 70s inland (sill a touch below normal for June, but closer to average than recent days). Sunday looks like it could be a beautiful day with high pressure breifly in control. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs climbing well into the 70s across much of the area. However, southerly flow will begin to return, pushing dewpoints up slightly by the evening along with slight shower chances.

By Monday, an approaching upper-level trough and surface front will begin to impact the western Great Lakes. Increasing cloud cover and moisture will lead to increasing precipitation chances, particularly Monday afternon and evening. The front looks to push through Monday night into Tuesday, with continued scattered showers and embedded storms. Cooler and drier air filters in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, but enough lingering upper-level energy and residual low-level moisture may keep things at least partly unsettled with continued slight chances for showers through at least midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 104 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Light rain showers will continue to spread across the area tonight through this afternoon, especially across the Tip of the Mitt and the eastern U.P. TVC, APN, PLN, and CIU will likely experience showers at points through the issuance period, with showers being less likely at mbL. CIGs will continue to lower as showers spread east tonight, but current confidence is that most areas will remain VFR with cloud heights mainly between 4-6kft. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs /VSBYs will be possible within any heavier showers that pass over TAF sites. Otherwise, east winds around 7-12 kts are expected today with gusts to 15-20 kts at times into the evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.