Glen Arbor, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glen Arbor, MI

June 13, 2024 5:27 AM CDT (10:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 12:05 PM   Moonset 12:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202406131515;;932171 Fzus63 Kmkx 130811 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 311 am cdt Thu jun 13 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.

Synopsis -
southwest winds this morning will become west to northwest this afternoon into the evening as a cold front drops through the area. There will be a chance for Thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Winds will be northerly on Friday behind departing low pressure and ahead of an approaching high of 30.1 inches. Winds will be lighter on Saturday, picking back up out of the south on Sunday as the high pushes east of the area.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-131515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 311 am cdt Thu jun 13 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .

Today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.

Friday - North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Friday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.

Sunday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 130759 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe storms will be possible across northern Michigan this afternoon.

- Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking highs.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Low amplitude shortwave/jet max looks to punch across the Great Lakes today as the parent longwave trough amplifies over the region into Friday. Forcing provided aloft will result in surface low pressure deepening along an advancing cold front from Quebec back across the central Great Plains, which is set to swing across the area this afternoon.

Forecast Details:

Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon -- Ongoing thunderstorms across parts of northern Michigan will continue to track east and gradually weaken with time this morning amidst fumes of elevated instability. Severe storms are not anticipated through the morning hours. A break in thunderstorm chances is anticipated later this morning before additional scattered storms develop along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front this afternoon. The best chances for storms seem to be split, with one area of higher storm chances coming across the eastern U.P./Tip of the Mitt and another south of M-72. Thunderstorms this afternoon will be in the presence of strong buoyancy (~2,000 J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (~40 kts). Forecast hodographs display shear that is relatively evenly distributed through the vertical profile, increasing the likelihood for organized storms later today -- a few of which could be strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with any strong storms that develop. While not necessarily expected, a tornado or two will be possible with any strong storms as well. These thoughts are echo'd by SPC as the Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a 2% tornado probability area across most of the northern lower peninsula. Otherwise, temperatures looks to warm into the low to mid 80s for many areas south of the bridge today before the cold front swings through, dropping temperatures back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Midlevel zonal flow with an internal jet maxima across the northern half of the CONUS will continue chances of showers and storms at times due to embedded height disturbances. Ridging currently over southwestern U.S will progress over upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period and build surface level high pressure.

Biggest focus for the entirety of the long term is the temperatures building well above normal as the aformentioned midlevel flow advects northward. Chances of precipitation is still expected at times with convective storms along with weak frontal passages but diurnal heating to near record breaking temperatures through the majority of the work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking highs: Surface high pressure will build at the start of the long term resulting in dry and pleasant weather pattern this weekend.
Clear skies and sinking air will result in cool overnight lows (especially Friday night) and daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for the weekend. Attention quickly turns toward the start of the next work week as midlevel ridging strengthens across the eastern half of the U.S allowing for hot and humid air to build across the CWA (humid for northern Michigan). Long range guidance is hinting at Tuesday and Wednesday being the hottest during the entirety of the long term with daytime highs near 90 degrees for most locations while overnight lows remain in the upper 60s/low 70s. Enough atmospheric energy will trigger come convective showers and thunderstorms at times next week that would aid in cooling localized locations, but overall northern Michigan will remain warm until a cold front finally puts an end to the heat around the Thursday timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A cold front will cross northern MI on Thursday. Multiple rounds of showers, and perhaps embedded TSRA, will be possible until then. Rain chances arrive at CIU/PLN shortly after midnight, and later tonight TVC/APN/MBL. Chance for TS at any one TAF site is small enough to not include for now. Mainly VFR conditions, but cigs will eventually lower. Do have MVFR cigs for part of Thursday at CIU. Brief vsby/cig restrictions are possible with stronger showers and any TSRA.

Sw winds will increase tonight and Thursday, veering west late in the day. LLWS is included at PLN/CIU for part of tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi37 minSW 9.7G12 54°F2 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi47 minSW 11G14 65°F 29.73
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi87 minS 4.1G8 67°F 29.72


Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFKS27 sm12 minSSW 063/4 sm-- Haze 70°F57°F64%29.75


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Gaylord, MI,




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