Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 4:25 AM

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LMZ364 Expires:202404192130;;015862 Fzus63 Kmkx 191353 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 853 am cdt Fri apr 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
a high pressure of 30.3 over the central us and low pressure of 29.6 over western ontario will contribute to gusty west/northwest winds for today. Winds will calm with the ridge's progression into the area by late Saturday, before ramping back up out of the southwest moving into the next week with an approaching low to the northwest.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-192130- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 853 am cdt Fri apr 19 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of today - West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Saturday - West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Saturday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Sunday - West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - South winds to 30 kt veering to northwest. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 191728 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow chances return this afternoon and evening, with the potential for graupel to mix in with any heavier showers.

- Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday.

- Next chance of precipitation returns Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified troughing centered over southern Canada/Upper Midwest will progress eastward, working over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight. The associated surface cyclone currently over Ontario will trek northeast across James Bay/northern Quebec in conjunction with favorable forcing aloft. An attendant cold front pushing across the area will also depart east this morning.

Forecast Details:

Light showers ongoing across parts of the area associated with the aforementioned front are expected to diminish over the next few hours, leaving quiet weather in place for areas south of the bridge for most of today. Dry air filtering in behind the front will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies for northern lower through this afternoon, whereas better low-level moisture in closer proximity to the surface low will keep more cloud cover in place and support scattered showers across eastern upper beginning this afternoon.
Chances for showers across northern lower look to hold off until this evening.

Relatively steep lapse rates and increasing saturation up to around 700mb amidst support aloft will help develop some more robust showers. With these steep lapse rates and potential for deeper showers, graupel will be possible with activity tomorrow afternoon through tonight. Surface temperatures near freezing underneath falling precip will also likely lead to snow mixing in -- especially tonight with the arrival of coolest temperatures. High confidence exists in any snow accumulations being limited to a dusting/a quick few tenths at most. The primary impact from any snowfall may be quick drops in visibility as showers move overhead. As the previous forecaster expressed, there is still uncertainty in how far southeast to take precip chances across the area due to drier low- level air with extent in that direction away from Lake Michigan.
Best chances will come across northwest lower with lesser chances further inland.

Otherwise, highs in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store this afternoon with lows dipping into the low 30s for most areas tonight.
Temperatures will feel cooler during the day with breezy west winds gusting to 25-35 mph at times.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale closed low pressure over Central Canada continues to push cooler than average temperatures into the Great Lakes region. Midlevel ridging currently over the Northwest Territories with upstream troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will support slow moving midlevel flow for the majority of the long term forecast period keeping a mainly quiet weather pattern for the next several days.

Aformentioned troughing will slowly pivot across Canada and settle over Hudson Bay by Saturday. Non impactful weather is expected for the entirety of the forecast period, but embedded height disturbances will keep chances of precipitation Saturday morning and again in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a midlevel shortwave progresses through the Great Lakes region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday. Next chance of precipitation returns Tuesday: Saturday morning will start off cool, with temperatures around freezing for most areas and H8 temperatures around -8 to -10 degrees. Lingering moisture along with breezy WNW flow will continue snow showers with rain mixing in until the afternoon hours. Little to no QPF is expected but minor accumulations could result in a general dusting for typical snowbelt locations of northern lower and eastern upper on Saturday.

Conditions dry Saturday evening and remain quiet Sunday and Monday until a shortwave trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska makes its way to the Great lakes region by Tuesday. Current guidance depicts the system weakening as it progresses across the country. Still a bit too far out to message details such as QPF or even P-type, but chances of active weather continues to increase for the region next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Largely VFR expected through the TAF period with the possible exception coming late tonight into early Saturday morning with low probabilities for MVFR CIGs -- primarily at CIU/PLN.
Scattered rain/snow showers return to CIU this afternoon with lower probabilities at northwest lower MI terminals tonight into Saturday. Occasional gustiness this afternoon to near 30 kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

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Gaylord, MI,