Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Gate, MT

DISCUSSION

Today through Thursday night...

Some scattered showers are possible this morning into the afternoon as moisture advects into the region. The best chance, 40-60%, will be over the mountains and foothills, and lower elevations from Billings south will have a 20-40% chance.

The chance for widespread precipitation will increase this evening into Thursday as a wave moves across the region.
Currently, the best chance for more than 0.25" is south of US-12, ranging from 30% near US-12 to 70% near the Wyoming border.
Elevations above 6000 ft will see all snow, with north and east facing mountain slopes favored. The highest peaks in the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains have a 50% chance of at least 6 inches of snow and the Bighorns have a 25% chance of the same.
Over the foothills and higher hills, some snow accumulating on grassy surfaces is possible, although there is a less than 25% chance of more than 0.5". There may be a rumble of thunder or two, especially over the western mountains (15% chance), but low instability and straight line hodographs will limit thunderstorm development.

High temperatures will be mostly in the 50s today, decreasing to mid 40s to low 50s Thursday. Archer

Friday through Tuesday...

We are keeping a close eye on the weather system for early next week. This could turn into a significant precipitation event for the Big Horns region and eastern plains. North facing slopes in the Absaroka/Beartooths could see significant snow as well.
Ensembles all agree that a strong upper trough will move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Sunday, and lift northeast into the Dakotas through Monday. This could potentially induce deep northerly upslope, perfect for the hitting the Big Horns, combined with plenty of upper dynamics to affect most of the CWA However, there remains some uncertainty in the exact track, strength and speed of this system. Model precipitation spreads remain quite large for any particular location (nearly an inch in spread between the 75th-25th percentiles). That said, the probability of at least a half inch of liquid Sunday through Monday continues to climb with most areas near 50% and the Big Horns over 70%.

Snow levels will remain at or above about 6500 ft in the mountains. Some areas could see 6-12 inches or more..but higher foothill locations may not see much snowfall accumulation due to the relatively warm nature of the system.

Due to relatively high snow levels, a primary concern is rain on snow over the foothills with the potentially high precipitation amounts. Minor flooding and even some debris flow issues are something to monitor, particularly over the Elk Fire burn scar.
Folks should be encouraged to prepare ahead and move equipment and livestock away from low lying areas and streams.

Overall trends...
Friday through Saturday looks fairly quiet with only isolated to scattered insignificant showers and possibly some thunderstorms, most of which will be over the higher terrain. There is enough instability where a few thunderstorms could develop, but we do not expect anything to widespread. Temps on Saturday should peak for the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. We may start seeing some showers into the western CWA by Sunday morning with mild temps ahead of the system...but things look to really pick up late Sunday as upper low moves into the central Rockies inducing deep east flow with diffluence aloft. Sunday night into Monday precipitation would spread across our region accompanied by brisk northerly winds. Precipitation would end from west to east Monday night as the system tracks into the Dakotas. This seems like the most likely case for now, but we are several days out yet, so please keep an eye on the forecast. BT

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated rain/snow showers are possible over and near the mountains creating obscurations. Patchy fog or a low cloud deck is possible through 15Z from KMLS to the Dakota border including KBHK. BT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054 041/049 039/060 040/071 047/069 048/058 040/063 2/W 47/W 52/W 12/W 26/T 78/W 43/W LVM 052 036/047 036/053 038/069 042/063 041/052 036/060 3/W 26/W 43/T 22/T 27/T 78/W 32/W HDN 057 039/050 038/061 040/074 044/071 046/058 039/062 3/W 68/W 52/W 22/W 26/T 89/W 53/W MLS 054 039/052 036/057 044/074 047/074 049/060 039/061 1/E 46/W 32/W 12/W 24/W 77/W 42/W 4BQ 055 040/046 039/054 044/074 049/073 048/057 040/058 1/E 58/W 42/W 11/B 13/T 68/T 53/W BHK 053 034/049 032/054 040/071 045/074 045/059 036/058 1/E 36/W 32/W 22/W 23/T 67/T 52/W SHR 057 036/045 034/056 039/071 041/069 041/055 035/058 3/W 69/W 62/W 22/W 14/T 79/W 54/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.