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FXUS65 KBYZ 032236 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 336 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION

Tonight through Monday night...

Tonight into Monday, an upper air shortwave trough and surface low will track from southern Canada to the Dakotas. This pattern will generate a strong sea-level pressure gradient especially over the foothills of south central MT tonight and then over southeast MT on Monday. The pattern will also facilitate strong winds to near 70 kt at 700 mb tonight into Monday. These factors should act constructively to produce strong wind gusts to 65-70 mph in the Livingston-Nye corridor northward to Big Timber and Harlowton. The probability of wind gusts reaching 70 mph is 80% at Big Timber, 50% at Harlowton, and 10% at Livingston. As the surface low moves southeastward Monday, surface pressures will rise in south central MT, which should help to end the strongest winds in the foothills west of Billings, but should also strengthen the pressure gradient in southeast MT and produce wind gusts to about 50 mph there.

For the rest of south central MT and north central WY, it will still be windy tonight into Monday with wind gusts to 30-50 mph, with those strongest gusts on the hilltops.

Monday night, the SLP gradient looks to re-strengthen over the western foothills as mid-level winds strengthen and turn more westerly, which should help lee troughing redevelop east of the Rocky Mountains. SLP pattern favors Livingston-Nye for strong wind gusts to 50-60 mph with this wind episode. The probability of wind gusts reaching 60 mph at Livingston Monday night is 50%.

In terms of precipitation, moist northwesterly flow will bring additional snow to the mountains tonight into Monday morning, mainly on west-facing slopes. The probability of receiving at least 4 inches of snow in the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains near Cooke City is 60% through Monday night.

Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight then 20s to lower 40s Monday night. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Monday. RMS

Tuesday through Sunday...

Ridging with NW flow remains over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a continued warm, windy, and dry period.
Highs in the 60s are currently forecasted for much of the CWA on both days. These highs are well above normals for this time of year, many areas will be 20F warmer than average.
A favorable pressure gradient for KLVM will persist into Wednesday as well, with a pressure gradient of 13-17mb from KIDA to KLWT. Tuesday into early Wednesday morning the probabilities of wind gusts of 50+ mph, 58+ mph, and 75+ mph at KLVM are as follows, 90%, 60-70%, and 5%. The probabilities for gusts diminish greatly by midday Wednesday, with a 20-40% chance of 50+ mph gusts, up to a 5% chance of 58+ mph gusts, and 0% chance of 75+ mph gusts. The stronger period of these winds remain just below advisory level for Livingston. As for Big Timber and Harlowtown, gusty winds will remain through Tuesday morning before winds shift to the SW, becoming unfavorable for strong winds. Big Timbers chances of 50+, 58+, and 70+ mph gusts Tuesday morning are 40-75%, 20-40%, and up to 5%. For Harlowtown, 90%, 35-65%, and 10%.

A pattern shift to WSW zonal flow ahead of a weak, approaching trough will begin Wednesday evening, bringing increasing precipitation probabilities through Friday. Chances of precip will move west to east, with the western zones seeing a 30-60% chance, 20-40% chance to the central zones, and a 10-20% chance out east. Rain and snow are possible, with snow more likely in the higher elevations.
High temps in the 30s and 40s are forecasted beginning Thursday and persisting into the weekend.

With the well above normal temps and windy conditions to start the week, some concerns of fire weather still exist. Ample cloud cover and min RHs only bottoming out in the mid 30s, will greatly help limit the extent of any fire danger.

Matos

AVIATION

Winds from KHWQ to K6S0 to KLVM will gust to 50-60 kts this evening through about 14z Monday. Winds over the plains will gust to 20-40 kts through the TAF period, and will change direction from southwest to northwest from 06z to 18z Monday. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will be around the lower elevations (20-40% chance), but not expecting reductions below VFR at this time. Mountains will be obscured in clouds and snow showers into Monday. RMS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 033/051 036/058 041/058 039/054 030/043 025/040 026/046 22/R 10/B 00/B 23/R 23/S 21/B 11/B LVM 034/050 038/056 040/056 038/048 026/038 020/036 025/042 42/O 10/N 01/N 44/O 34/S 21/B 22/S HDN 028/052 029/061 034/060 033/057 026/044 023/042 022/048 23/R 10/B 00/B 13/R 23/S 21/B 11/B MLS 026/046 027/057 037/058 033/053 027/040 023/037 022/042 20/N 00/B 00/B 12/R 12/S 11/B 01/B 4BQ 027/046 028/059 034/059 034/055 028/041 024/039 022/044 12/R 00/B 00/U 01/N 12/S 21/B 00/B BHK 021/042 020/053 033/057 030/050 024/038 018/035 017/039 10/N 00/B 00/B 11/N 11/B 11/B 00/B SHR 022/046 027/059 033/060 032/054 025/040 021/037 018/046 12/O 00/B 00/B 12/R 33/S 32/S 11/B

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM MST Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

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