Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Gate, MT
December 4, 2023 5:40 AM MST (12:40 UTC)
Sunrise 7:46AM Sunset 4:42PM Moonrise 11:50PM Moonset 12:59PM
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 040901 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 201 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023
DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday night...
Strong shortwave moving across north central Montana has developed a strong lee surface trough. Surface pressure gradient from Idaho Falls to Lewistown was at 17mb, which is right in line with what the GFS has been forecasting for this time of night the last several days. The orientation of the gradient supported strongest winds from Big Timber to Harlowton as opposed to Livingston. 700mb winds were sitting around 65kts and are expected to back off through the morning. Big Timber airport picked up a gust of 74mph earlier tonight, and was still hitting 60mph as of this writing. Livingston was struggling to hit 50mph. Gradient and 700mb wind will stay strong enough to keep Advisory and Warning in place into the early morning. May be able to cancel the Wind Advisory early at Livingston, but will give it a little more time before dropping. NBM probabilities for Big Timber have 10% chance of 70mph continuing past 4am, with a 60% chance of 60 mph. Those 60mph percentages for Big Timber drop to 20% by 9am. Harlowton has similar numbers to Big Timber.
Winds will gust 30-35mph over the central and eastern plains today, with the strongest winds over the far east. 850mb winds were progged at 45kts over the far southeast, but ascent will be in there at that time, which should prevent a lot of that wind from mixing to the surface. That being said, NBM probabilities place a 70% chance of Baker seeing gusts of 45mph. Winds will be strongest over central zones this morning, with decreasing winds this afternoon. Probabilities of 35mph winds at Billings this morning were 50%, with a 20% chance of 40mph.
The shortwave trough moving through this morning will produce a few light showers, with the best chance (30-40%) southeast of Billings and in the higher terrain (40-60% chance). The mountains will get some light additional accumulation this morning from what has already fallen the last couple of days, but this will be not significant. There is only a 50% chance of 2 inches of additional snow this morning over the west and northwest facing slopes around Cooke City.
Winds Look to crank again along the west slopes tonight. This will impact more so Livingston than Big Timber, due to the orientation of the surface pressure gradient. Probabilities of 60mph winds at Livingston were at 70%, with a 30% chance at Big Timber. May need another highlight for Livingston for tonight, but will let the current Advisory work through before pulling the trigger on that. Will have to keep a close eye of Harlowton too.
700mb winds were progged at 50kts and probabilities for 60mph were at 50% there. 700mb winds look a little too northwest there to drive those kind of speeds down. Winds will be gusty on Tuesday across the plains too with gusts again in the 20-30mph range.
Temperatures will be warmer today and Tuesday, with the warmer day being Tuesday. Highs today will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 50s. Will have to watch grassland fire danger (mainly Tuesday) given the mild temperatures (15-20 degrees above normal) and wind gusts to 30mph.
Minimum humidity values don't look to drop tremendously low though with readings hitting around 30 percent. Will need to watch this closely, as models do have a tendency to be too high on minimum humidity forecasts. TWH
Wednesday through Sunday...
Ridging will gradually move east out of the region Wednesday ahead of a pattern change. Models are in better agreement for a weak trough to influence the region late Wednesday through Friday, followed by weak ridging building in over the weekend.
A front moving through Thursday will bring gusts around 30-35 mph across the plains. During the long term, winds over the western foothills will be strongest Wednesday morning and will decrease through the day as the favorable pressure gradient and strong 700 mb winds weaken. Currently, winds are expected to remain below advisory levels, with a less than 5% chance of 58+ mph winds near Livingston through Wednesday afternoon.
Late Wednesday through Friday, the chance of precipitation will be 30-40% over the foothills, 40-60% over the mountains, and 15-30% over the plains. Over the mountains and higher elevations, precip will mostly be snow. Overnight Thursday into Friday, a little snow (less than 1 inch) may fall over lower elevations.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. With the pattern change, temperatures will decrease to upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday and upper 30s to low 40s Friday and Saturday. As the ridging build in, temperatures may increase slightly into the 40s for Sunday. Archer
AVIATION
High wind gusts of 50-60 kts near KLVM, K6S0 and K1KM will gradually decrease through the day before increasing again overnight up to 40-50 kts. Over the plains, gusts will reach 30-40 kts late this morning through early evening. The chance of showers will move out of the region this morning, except over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. Expect mountain obscuration. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 036/058 042/060 039/052 029/043 025/040 026/044 2/R 10/N 00/B 13/R 32/S 20/B 12/S LVM 050 038/056 040/057 036/046 025/038 019/036 023/042 3/O 10/N 00/N 55/O 43/S 21/B 23/S HDN 052 029/062 034/062 034/056 025/046 023/042 021/047 2/O 10/B 00/B 13/R 32/S 21/B 12/O MLS 046 027/057 037/058 034/052 026/041 023/039 022/042 0/N 10/B 00/B 12/R 11/B 10/B 01/B 4BQ 046 029/059 034/059 035/054 027/043 024/039 023/042 1/N 00/B 00/B 01/N 11/B 10/B 01/B BHK 042 021/053 033/057 031/050 022/039 019/036 016/039 0/N 10/B 00/B 12/R 11/B 10/B 01/B SHR 046 027/059 033/060 033/052 023/041 020/038 016/043 4/O 00/B 00/B 12/R 33/S 31/B 02/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM MST this morning FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM MST this morning FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 201 AM MST Mon Dec 4 2023
DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday night...
Strong shortwave moving across north central Montana has developed a strong lee surface trough. Surface pressure gradient from Idaho Falls to Lewistown was at 17mb, which is right in line with what the GFS has been forecasting for this time of night the last several days. The orientation of the gradient supported strongest winds from Big Timber to Harlowton as opposed to Livingston. 700mb winds were sitting around 65kts and are expected to back off through the morning. Big Timber airport picked up a gust of 74mph earlier tonight, and was still hitting 60mph as of this writing. Livingston was struggling to hit 50mph. Gradient and 700mb wind will stay strong enough to keep Advisory and Warning in place into the early morning. May be able to cancel the Wind Advisory early at Livingston, but will give it a little more time before dropping. NBM probabilities for Big Timber have 10% chance of 70mph continuing past 4am, with a 60% chance of 60 mph. Those 60mph percentages for Big Timber drop to 20% by 9am. Harlowton has similar numbers to Big Timber.
Winds will gust 30-35mph over the central and eastern plains today, with the strongest winds over the far east. 850mb winds were progged at 45kts over the far southeast, but ascent will be in there at that time, which should prevent a lot of that wind from mixing to the surface. That being said, NBM probabilities place a 70% chance of Baker seeing gusts of 45mph. Winds will be strongest over central zones this morning, with decreasing winds this afternoon. Probabilities of 35mph winds at Billings this morning were 50%, with a 20% chance of 40mph.
The shortwave trough moving through this morning will produce a few light showers, with the best chance (30-40%) southeast of Billings and in the higher terrain (40-60% chance). The mountains will get some light additional accumulation this morning from what has already fallen the last couple of days, but this will be not significant. There is only a 50% chance of 2 inches of additional snow this morning over the west and northwest facing slopes around Cooke City.
Winds Look to crank again along the west slopes tonight. This will impact more so Livingston than Big Timber, due to the orientation of the surface pressure gradient. Probabilities of 60mph winds at Livingston were at 70%, with a 30% chance at Big Timber. May need another highlight for Livingston for tonight, but will let the current Advisory work through before pulling the trigger on that. Will have to keep a close eye of Harlowton too.
700mb winds were progged at 50kts and probabilities for 60mph were at 50% there. 700mb winds look a little too northwest there to drive those kind of speeds down. Winds will be gusty on Tuesday across the plains too with gusts again in the 20-30mph range.
Temperatures will be warmer today and Tuesday, with the warmer day being Tuesday. Highs today will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 50s. Will have to watch grassland fire danger (mainly Tuesday) given the mild temperatures (15-20 degrees above normal) and wind gusts to 30mph.
Minimum humidity values don't look to drop tremendously low though with readings hitting around 30 percent. Will need to watch this closely, as models do have a tendency to be too high on minimum humidity forecasts. TWH
Wednesday through Sunday...
Ridging will gradually move east out of the region Wednesday ahead of a pattern change. Models are in better agreement for a weak trough to influence the region late Wednesday through Friday, followed by weak ridging building in over the weekend.
A front moving through Thursday will bring gusts around 30-35 mph across the plains. During the long term, winds over the western foothills will be strongest Wednesday morning and will decrease through the day as the favorable pressure gradient and strong 700 mb winds weaken. Currently, winds are expected to remain below advisory levels, with a less than 5% chance of 58+ mph winds near Livingston through Wednesday afternoon.
Late Wednesday through Friday, the chance of precipitation will be 30-40% over the foothills, 40-60% over the mountains, and 15-30% over the plains. Over the mountains and higher elevations, precip will mostly be snow. Overnight Thursday into Friday, a little snow (less than 1 inch) may fall over lower elevations.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. With the pattern change, temperatures will decrease to upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday and upper 30s to low 40s Friday and Saturday. As the ridging build in, temperatures may increase slightly into the 40s for Sunday. Archer
AVIATION
High wind gusts of 50-60 kts near KLVM, K6S0 and K1KM will gradually decrease through the day before increasing again overnight up to 40-50 kts. Over the plains, gusts will reach 30-40 kts late this morning through early evening. The chance of showers will move out of the region this morning, except over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. Expect mountain obscuration. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 036/058 042/060 039/052 029/043 025/040 026/044 2/R 10/N 00/B 13/R 32/S 20/B 12/S LVM 050 038/056 040/057 036/046 025/038 019/036 023/042 3/O 10/N 00/N 55/O 43/S 21/B 23/S HDN 052 029/062 034/062 034/056 025/046 023/042 021/047 2/O 10/B 00/B 13/R 32/S 21/B 12/O MLS 046 027/057 037/058 034/052 026/041 023/039 022/042 0/N 10/B 00/B 12/R 11/B 10/B 01/B 4BQ 046 029/059 034/059 035/054 027/043 024/039 023/042 1/N 00/B 00/B 01/N 11/B 10/B 01/B BHK 042 021/053 033/057 031/050 022/039 019/036 016/039 0/N 10/B 00/B 12/R 11/B 10/B 01/B SHR 046 027/059 033/060 033/052 023/041 020/038 016/043 4/O 00/B 00/B 12/R 33/S 31/B 02/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM MST this morning FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM MST this morning FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
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Airport Reports
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Billings, MT,
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