Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Gate, MT

DISCUSSION

Through next Sunday...

Ongoing cold advection is producing breezy north winds and advecting higher concentrations of surface-based smoke. Miles City and Baker have seen visibility drop to 5SM, and visibilities are lower further north along the high line. Some stations are reporting air quality in the "unhealthy for all" range so keep this in mind if you are venturing outdoors. HRRR seems to have a decent handle on current smoke trends. Expect thickening smoke early to give way to gradual improvement through this afternoon as mixed north winds advect cleaner air behind a secondary cold front which arrives early this morning. As surface smoke conditions improve, upper level winds will likely continue to advect lofted smoke from the west.

Satellite imagery shows a Canadian trof dropping into northern ID and northwest MT. Mid level frontogenesis/instability produced areas of showers and a few weak t-storms in the evening over the west, perhaps even a little more than expected as some stations reported measurable rain. As the upper trof swings thru northern MT expect another period of isolated to scattered showers across our north from late morning thru afternoon. Regarding fire wx, the cooler temps and higher humidities will lessen fire weather concerns from the past two days, but there remains a window of breezy north winds and near 20% RH over our far east today.

Look for high temps in the 70s today. A 1020mb surface high settles in tonight bringing a seasonably chilly night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. In fact, a few daily record lows for August 4th may be approached. Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak shortwave moving thru northern WY may produce a few showers/weak t-storms in the southeast near the WY/MT border Tuesday night. Heights start to rise Wednesday behind this final wave, and temps should respond accordingly with highs into the 80s.

The 2nd half of the week will see a transition to flat ridging, warmer temps and dry conditions. Expect temps back to the 90s to near 100F by Friday & Saturday, and possibly Sunday. Ensembles show increasing uncertainty as we get into next weekend and beyond. We should see at least slight cooling by Monday if not Sunday. Wednesday to Sunday will be dry, with high confidence, as pwats are expected to linger somewhere near 0.50". By late Sunday or Monday as the next trof approaches we should start seeing the moisture increase again, leading to a return to potential thunderstorms beginning late Sunday or Monday. Ensembles show a fairly strong signal for above normal pwats moving thru the first part of next week. JKL

AVIATION

12z TAF Discussion...Gusty northerly winds and reduced visibility in smoke will be the main threats to aviation today. Northerly winds of 15 to 30kts will be common today, diminishing quickly this evening. High smoke concentrations have built into the area overnight, knocking visibility down as low as 4sm at times.
Surface smoke concentrations should improve from north to south this afternoon into the evening, as northerly winds usher in cleaner air. A few light showers are possible along the northern tier of the forecast area today, but this activity should not impact flight categories. VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected tonight. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 073 050/077 054/085 059/092 062/099 067/098 066/094 0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 074 043/077 046/085 051/092 056/098 058/096 058/092 1/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U HDN 074 047/079 050/086 055/093 058/100 063/098 063/096 1/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B MLS 073 048/077 051/084 057/091 060/098 065/096 065/095 3/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B 4BQ 077 049/075 052/083 057/089 061/097 066/096 067/095 1/N 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B BHK 078 044/075 047/082 053/089 056/096 061/096 060/094 2/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B SHR 075 044/078 048/084 053/091 056/097 060/097 061/095 0/N 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 133.
WY...None.