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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 237 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm est this evening...
Through early evening..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 082006 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 306 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Cloudy and Mild with Rain Arriving Late

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Timing of the Rain.

991 mb low pressure over northern Minnesota will track northeast into Canada tonight while 1001 mb currently across Oklahoma approaches from the southwest while deepening. Lift/deep moisture associated with the southern system arrives late tonight. This should spread rain into southwest zones after midnight on into much of the remainder of northern lower by early Saturday.
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph tonight should hold temperatures from falling off too much. Lows only expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s which in combination with dewpoints of well above freezing to melt down much of the remaining snow on the ground where there still is some.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/

High Impact Weather Potential: Increasing lake effect/enhanced snow showers late this weekend/early next week with a return of colder temperatures.

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Saturday morning, longwave troughing centered across the nation's midsection...
sandwiched between ridging over both coasts. Embedded shortwave expected to be over MN with attendant low pressure centered over southeast WI. This system will continue to trek north through Saturday, becoming situated near James Bay by Saturday evening. Much cooler air to follow this system for the second half of the weekend into the start of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday. Cooler Saturday night onward with some snow possible across parts of northern MI.

Low pressure passes by to our west Saturday morning continuing to drive rain chances from north to south across northern MI. Latest trends have the bulk of notable precip exiting the forecast area by 18-20z. Morning probabilistic guidance still hinting at highest chances of 0.25" QPF (50-75%) west of I-75. 25-35% chance across that same area of 0.50" Lower probs for those some thresholds elsewhere.

Cooler air begins to arrive Saturday afternoon and evening, reinforced by a secondary cold front Saturday night. Lingering synoptic support combined with an increasingly favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely prove to be enough to activate lake processes. Additional scattered/rain snow showers Saturday evening turn to primarily snow overnight with low probabilities over some minor accumulation across the higher terrain.

Snow chances perhaps briefly enhanced early Sunday morning before activity transitions to primarily pure lake effect as lingering synoptic supports departs...potentially continuing to some extent into Monday. Latest day 3-4 probs for 2"+ of snow still pretty low at this juncture (25-35% chance)...largely focused across the typical snow belts of northwest lower. As the prior forecaster mentioned, low probs Sunday night/early Monday for some freezing drizzle to mix in as well given cloud tops struggling to reach -10 C.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Shortwave ridging crosses the western Great Lakes Monday night. A northern stream wave punches toward the northern Lakes by late Monday night - Tuesday before some signals that longwave ridging at least briefly returns toward the end of the forecast period.

Overall, not a lot in the way of potential high impact weather through the long term, but certainly some nuisance precip chances remain. Low pressure passing to our north late Monday night - Tuesday is expected to send a cold front across the region through that time frame, perhaps providing enough support to kick off some snow showers -- especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Latest ensemble trends favor another period with above to well- above normal temperatures arriving by Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Lots of clouds across the taf sites at the moment, mainly VFR except IFR at CIU. Temporary clearing is expected from southwest to northeast across northern lower this afternoon (probably not reaching CIU). Low pressure is then expected to spread rain into the area late tonight and Saturday morning as well as lowered cigs. Current gusty southerly winds will come down a bit tonight into the 5 to 10 knot range.

MARINE

Small craft advisory level gusts will continue into this evening before decreasing overnight. Winds will pick up again this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday when a fresh set of sca's will be likely needed.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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