Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alpena, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 1024 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Still plenty of lake enhanced shallow clouds across a good portion of the area this evening (even a few flurries as well).
Expect clouds to slowly thin with time...although it may take until after sunrise for eastern upper and parts of northeast lower to clear substantially. A cold night, with lows in the 20s and 30s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 425 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Initial cold front now stretching from Saginaw Bay to Berrien County in SW Lower MI...with additional wind shifts in the flow upstream yet...as another shortwave trough punches in from the NW. Strong pressure gradient on the backside of the low resulting in strong sustained W-NW winds...15-25kts. Strong winds aloft still able to mix down, especially given strong turbulence/gravity waves present, thanks in part to strong cold advection. Early-day temps in the 70s and even upper 80s near the Sunrise Side now dropping to the 30s and 40s with lingering drizzle/snow showers at times. High pressure to slowly build in from the west overnight tonight into Monday...resulting in a cooler but quieter/pleasant day for Hump Day across the Northwoods.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Cold Tonight; Near Records? To be honest...have been primarily focused on winds this afternoon and haven't had much time to look deep into the cold potential for tonight
However
do have some potential caveats for lows for tonight from a conceptual standpoint... While incoming air mass is cold/dry (temps in the 20s/dewpoints in the teens upstream over W. Ontario)...do think it is cold enough to keep overlake instability and lake clouds present through the night...which could very well keep things from bottoming out. (Would not even be entirely surprised if there was some rogue drizzle/flake-age overnight in NW flow areas.) Additionally...while some areas didn't receive a ton of rainfall with this event (areas especially near and south of M-72) and could bottom out more than elsewhere...do think the areas that got better rainfall (i.e., the EUP and Tip of the Mitt) may have enough boundary layer moisture to limit the amount of radiational cooling if skies did clear out up there (least likely to do up there...better chance near and south of M-72). Do have to wonder if this idea could lead to development of some radiational fog overnight. Also think we may very well struggle to decouple tonight with the pressure gradient struggling to more fully relax until closer to morning...which could also keep temps from bottoming out
If we do clear out and decouple
think at least some records will be in jeopardy tonight...as temps could very well drop into the lower 20s or even a touch cooler.

Fire Weather concerns Wednesday? On the flipside...incoming dry air mass paired with little in the way of rain for some areas with this last event certainly has potential to keep fire weather concerns on the table. Even with minRHs this afternoon in the 45-60 percent range...have been hearing of some wildfires out there thus far (strong winds and antecedent dry air mass/fuels certainly big players in this). Looking like we will tap into a very dry air mass tomorrow, to an event better extent than today...with mixing heights up around 4-5kft in the afternoon...and have reasonable confidence in min RHs in the 25-30% range across much of the interior. Perhaps one saving grace is the high pressure bringing in light winds
which should be at least somewhat helpful
but still worth keeping an eye on fire weather concerns going forward.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 425 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Little short wave advecting northward from ~Desert Southwest - Southern Plains will lift up into portions of MI along with a subsequent sfc low pressure system. Warm, moist advection will aid in a blossoming of precipitation across the region, likely focusing across the southeastern half-ish of northern lower MI. Could see a half inch to inch in spots of liquid, the highest probability across the southeastern portions of our forecast area. I suppose that pesky southeast trend could manifest, in which case the far southeastern portions of our county warning area would be most likely to see the steadiest, wetting rains. But still could be a wetting rain for a chunk of northern lower. Much less the farther northwest you go, eastern UP for instance. As short wave and low pressure eject east/north, big conglomerate of a cold upper trough shifts over N MI on Friday resulting in perhaps a few showers scattered about (E UP may be the focus as there's two separate lift regions within this broader trough, one being across the E UP). Expect cooler conditions to continue, with an eventual drying trend overnight.

High pressure builds in this weekend with cooler temps lingering Saturday, with a warming trend this Sunday. Any consequential moisture/instability will be evacuated by the high pressure system and subsidence behind the upper low and east of a building ridge.

High pressure/increasing heights/blocking pattern still anticipated for next week and thus, increasing temperatures (70s likely) and generally dry conditions. This is also highlighted by the CPC outlooks.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

MVFR cigs look to persist through early this morning...especially at KCIU, KPLN, and KAPN. Improving conditions to VFR under clearing skies expected as we head through later this morning into this afternoon. VFR conditions expected to continue into tonight. Winds become light southeast today, with local lake breeze development expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.