Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alpena, MI
February 17, 2025 4:01 PM EST (21:01 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:28 AM Sunset 6:10 PM Moonrise 11:39 PM Moonset 9:22 AM |
LHZ348 105 Am Edt Wed Jul 24 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - . The areas affected include - . Lake huron from presque isle lt. To sturgeon point mi 5nm off shore to us/canadian border - . Presque isle light to sturgeon pt mi including Thunder bay national marine sanctuary - .
at 104 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located near Thunder bay, moving east at 10 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4481 8282 4487 8343 4490 8347 4510 8342 4512 8338 4516 8341 4520 8340 4525 8280
at 104 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located near Thunder bay, moving east at 10 knots.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4481 8282 4487 8343 4490 8347 4510 8342 4512 8338 4516 8341 4520 8340 4525 8280
LHZ300
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Area Discussion for Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 172010 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating lake effect snow continues across parts of northern Michigan through Thursday night. Brisk winds will lead to some blowing snow and quick drops in visibility.
- Bitter cold wind chills expected tonight - Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night - Wednesday morning..
- Temperatures likely to rebound by the weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:
Longwave troughing has set up shop across much of the eastern CONUS into Canada, driving an arctic airmass across the Great Lakes and those sorta-still-open lakes are generating a convective response yet again. Expect this cyclonic flow to continue its reign of dominance across the region, with little relief in sight from lake effect snows over much of the forecast period.
The caveat with this particular outburst is that we have gotten so cold, that the overlake instability is being generated **above** the DGZ, resulting in minimal dendritic growth, and more of a gunpowder composition. This has led to rapid onset whiteouts from the combination of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Current satellite imagery shows general WNW flow lake effect getting pumped into lower Michigan off of Lake Michigan, with "strong diurnal heating" warming surface temperatures in the teens helping to extend instability profiles well inland, and thus, these snow showers are achieving "cross peninsular" status... i.e., going from Lake Michigan to Lake Huron. For our friends north of the bridge, most activity is confined well west of I-75. Dominant lake / low level troughing over Lake Superior has yielded an exceptional convergence zone stretching roughly from the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula to the Pictured Rocks region, and the fallout from this is spilling into western Mackinac County at the moment.
Forecast Details:
Eastern Upper: Primary spot of concern remains western Mackinac county this afternoon, though heaviest snowfalls should remain just NW of there. Models haven't really honed in on a consistent solution... but thus far, based off satellite and radar, there isn't much to buy into with heavier snowfall. In addition, the composition of the snow will make it difficult to really pile up, so will be holding on upgrading them to an advisory. As winds back slightly overnight, this will bring western Chippewa county into play, so will be hoisting an advisory for them thru 12z Tuesday. As far as additional snowfall goes, the areas in the advisory likely see 3-6" of additional snowfall through 12z Tuesday. Additional snowfall is anticipated on Tuesday, though it will be more focused on western Chippewa County, with an additional 1-3" possible through 00z Wednesday
Another caveat to consider
winds will still be pretty persistent overnight as temperature drop near to slightly below zero (exception is the Sault, which may approach -10F). Wind chills will bottom out around -20 to -25F, tonight... so that has warranted a cold weather advisory outside of western Chippewa and Mackinac counties. This will run from 9pm tonight through 9am Tuesday.
Northern Lower: Current trends show the most dominant banding extending from Emmet through Presque Isle counties, along with another band extending through the "quad corner" of Antrim, Otsego, Crawford, and Kalkaska counties. Expecting most of these trends to continue through the evening into the overnight, with that banding over the Tip of the Mitt generally fading out as winds turn just slightly more northwesterly, and the moisture tap from Lake Michigan is cut off by ice cover north / east of Beaver Island. The focus for the majority of tonight's lake effect activity in northern lower will focus on Kalkaska and Antrim counties, where an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow (locally more) is possible through Tuesday morning. Did already upgrade Antrim at the morning update, and after some deliberation, have decided to upgrade Kalkaska into the Winter Storm Warning as well considering the most persistent banding will hover over them. Another addition to the headline group is Presque Isle County... persistent banding has consistently leaked into south central Presque Isle County. Expecting activity to fire back up tomorrow with more lake effect snows... favoring the northwest lower snowbelts... emphasis on the "Big Five" of Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Crawford, and Kalkaska... southwest all the way to Manistee. Lesser accums elsewhere with some passing snow showers. Cold weather headlines are also in play for northern lower... wind chills ranging from -15 to -20 expected tonight, probably most pertinent across the interior and east / south to Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay where lesser lake effect cloud cover will allow for air temperatures to drop below zero.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Ridging looks to amplify over the Atlantic Coast as troughing digs across the Great Plains and down over the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Said troughing will punch across the southeast CONUS on Thursday as ridging folds over the Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft will build strong surface high pressure across much of the central CONUS, expanding all the way down to the Gulf Coast and over the Great Lakes by Friday. A more unsettled pattern looks to return later this weekend and into next week.
Forecast Details:
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue across parts of northern Michigan through Thursday. Forecast soundings are relatively unimpressive, but sufficient low-level moisture should be in place to support at least light lake effect snow across varying portions of northwest lower and eastern upper heading into the end of the week. Aforementioned high pressure building in looks to shut off lake effect chances by the end of the week. This will be short lived, however, as additional chances return this weekend.
Otherwise, below zero wind chills will continue Wednesday morning before temperatures finally beginning to warm some Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through the weekend, potentially reaching into the mid 30s during the daytime by the start of next week.|
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Lake effect snow showers are set to continue this afternoon across all TAF sites in northern Michigan, with the exception of CIU.
Largely MVFR CIGs across the board, with the occasional drop to IFR during any given passing snow shower. Tonight, clouds thin closer to APN and PLN, perhaps bringing some brief VFR conditions, while lake effect snow showers continue at all other sites, including CIU, who could see some increasing snow shower activity later tonight.
Generally WNW to NW winds this afternoon gust to 25kts, tapering but remaining persistent with sustained winds of 10-15kts. Looking into Tuesday, those NW to WNW winds flare up again by mid-morning, with snow shower activity again ramping up. There may be some longer lasting VFR CIGS at times on Tuesday, but the overall prevailing conditions will largely be MVFR with continued lake effect snow showers.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-017- 020-022-025-026-028-031>033-095-099.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-087-088-096>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-086.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ021-027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating lake effect snow continues across parts of northern Michigan through Thursday night. Brisk winds will lead to some blowing snow and quick drops in visibility.
- Bitter cold wind chills expected tonight - Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night - Wednesday morning..
- Temperatures likely to rebound by the weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:
Longwave troughing has set up shop across much of the eastern CONUS into Canada, driving an arctic airmass across the Great Lakes and those sorta-still-open lakes are generating a convective response yet again. Expect this cyclonic flow to continue its reign of dominance across the region, with little relief in sight from lake effect snows over much of the forecast period.
The caveat with this particular outburst is that we have gotten so cold, that the overlake instability is being generated **above** the DGZ, resulting in minimal dendritic growth, and more of a gunpowder composition. This has led to rapid onset whiteouts from the combination of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Current satellite imagery shows general WNW flow lake effect getting pumped into lower Michigan off of Lake Michigan, with "strong diurnal heating" warming surface temperatures in the teens helping to extend instability profiles well inland, and thus, these snow showers are achieving "cross peninsular" status... i.e., going from Lake Michigan to Lake Huron. For our friends north of the bridge, most activity is confined well west of I-75. Dominant lake / low level troughing over Lake Superior has yielded an exceptional convergence zone stretching roughly from the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula to the Pictured Rocks region, and the fallout from this is spilling into western Mackinac County at the moment.
Forecast Details:
Eastern Upper: Primary spot of concern remains western Mackinac county this afternoon, though heaviest snowfalls should remain just NW of there. Models haven't really honed in on a consistent solution... but thus far, based off satellite and radar, there isn't much to buy into with heavier snowfall. In addition, the composition of the snow will make it difficult to really pile up, so will be holding on upgrading them to an advisory. As winds back slightly overnight, this will bring western Chippewa county into play, so will be hoisting an advisory for them thru 12z Tuesday. As far as additional snowfall goes, the areas in the advisory likely see 3-6" of additional snowfall through 12z Tuesday. Additional snowfall is anticipated on Tuesday, though it will be more focused on western Chippewa County, with an additional 1-3" possible through 00z Wednesday
Another caveat to consider
winds will still be pretty persistent overnight as temperature drop near to slightly below zero (exception is the Sault, which may approach -10F). Wind chills will bottom out around -20 to -25F, tonight... so that has warranted a cold weather advisory outside of western Chippewa and Mackinac counties. This will run from 9pm tonight through 9am Tuesday.
Northern Lower: Current trends show the most dominant banding extending from Emmet through Presque Isle counties, along with another band extending through the "quad corner" of Antrim, Otsego, Crawford, and Kalkaska counties. Expecting most of these trends to continue through the evening into the overnight, with that banding over the Tip of the Mitt generally fading out as winds turn just slightly more northwesterly, and the moisture tap from Lake Michigan is cut off by ice cover north / east of Beaver Island. The focus for the majority of tonight's lake effect activity in northern lower will focus on Kalkaska and Antrim counties, where an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow (locally more) is possible through Tuesday morning. Did already upgrade Antrim at the morning update, and after some deliberation, have decided to upgrade Kalkaska into the Winter Storm Warning as well considering the most persistent banding will hover over them. Another addition to the headline group is Presque Isle County... persistent banding has consistently leaked into south central Presque Isle County. Expecting activity to fire back up tomorrow with more lake effect snows... favoring the northwest lower snowbelts... emphasis on the "Big Five" of Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Crawford, and Kalkaska... southwest all the way to Manistee. Lesser accums elsewhere with some passing snow showers. Cold weather headlines are also in play for northern lower... wind chills ranging from -15 to -20 expected tonight, probably most pertinent across the interior and east / south to Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay where lesser lake effect cloud cover will allow for air temperatures to drop below zero.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Ridging looks to amplify over the Atlantic Coast as troughing digs across the Great Plains and down over the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Said troughing will punch across the southeast CONUS on Thursday as ridging folds over the Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft will build strong surface high pressure across much of the central CONUS, expanding all the way down to the Gulf Coast and over the Great Lakes by Friday. A more unsettled pattern looks to return later this weekend and into next week.
Forecast Details:
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue across parts of northern Michigan through Thursday. Forecast soundings are relatively unimpressive, but sufficient low-level moisture should be in place to support at least light lake effect snow across varying portions of northwest lower and eastern upper heading into the end of the week. Aforementioned high pressure building in looks to shut off lake effect chances by the end of the week. This will be short lived, however, as additional chances return this weekend.
Otherwise, below zero wind chills will continue Wednesday morning before temperatures finally beginning to warm some Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm through the weekend, potentially reaching into the mid 30s during the daytime by the start of next week.|
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Lake effect snow showers are set to continue this afternoon across all TAF sites in northern Michigan, with the exception of CIU.
Largely MVFR CIGs across the board, with the occasional drop to IFR during any given passing snow shower. Tonight, clouds thin closer to APN and PLN, perhaps bringing some brief VFR conditions, while lake effect snow showers continue at all other sites, including CIU, who could see some increasing snow shower activity later tonight.
Generally WNW to NW winds this afternoon gust to 25kts, tapering but remaining persistent with sustained winds of 10-15kts. Looking into Tuesday, those NW to WNW winds flare up again by mid-morning, with snow shower activity again ramping up. There may be some longer lasting VFR CIGS at times on Tuesday, but the overall prevailing conditions will largely be MVFR with continued lake effect snow showers.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-017- 020-022-025-026-028-031>033-095-099.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-087-088-096>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-086.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ021-027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI | 1 mi | 31 min | W 15G | 15°F | ||||
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 | 1 mi | 43 min | 15°F | -3°F | ||||
TBIM4 | 13 mi | 91 min | W 23G | 15°F | ||||
PRIM4 - Presque Isle Light, MI | 20 mi | 71 min | 23G | |||||
SPTM4 - Sturgeon Point Light, MI | 26 mi | 71 min | W 8G | |||||
45212 | 37 mi | 101 min | 36°F | 6 ft |
Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KAPN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAPN
Wind History Graph: APN
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes
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Gaylord, MI,

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