Alpena, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alpena, MI

December 9, 2023 8:01 PM EST (01:01 UTC)
Sunrise 7:55AM   Sunset 5:00PM   Moonrise  4:20AM   Moonset 2:37PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 555 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Overnight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 600 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty Winds and Turning Colder...

High Impact Weather...Minimal once winds diminish this evening.
Advisory or near Advisory level wind gusts may cause a few power outages into early evening.

Complex upper-level troffing currently moving through/impacting the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. A broad southern stream long-wave trof is over much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. with a weaker northern stream wave moving across northern Canada. Between these mean trof axes is a cutoff low over the upper Midwest, and a short wave of interest ejecting northeast from the southern stream trof across northern Michigan. A surface low associated with this short wave is heading northeast out of northern Lake Michigan an the moment with an associated cold front curving along the eastern edge of lower Michigan.

Rain showers in the vicinity of the surface low should lift northeast out of the forecast area within the next few hours, while the showers along the cold front will be pushing into Lake Huron very soon. Once the rain moves out of the area, there should be a lull in the precipitation threat for much of the first half of the night.

The upper-level low over the upper Midwest is forecast to arrive after midnight tonight, accompanied by a secondary cold front. A period of rain/snow mix and eventually all snow will accompany the passage of these features. The low-level flow turns northwesterly in the wake of the secondary cold front, and low-level temperatures cool sufficiently to produce over-lake instability. However, little/no snow accumulation is expected tonight, with better chances for snow accumulation in northwest flow snow belts expected to hold off until the daytime hours Sunday.

Winds, while gusty, have largely stayed below Wind Advisory criteria. However, there have been scattered Advisory level gusts, and associated power outages within a few hours of the first cold frontal passage. For this reason, plan to keep ongoing Wind Advisory in effect through its early evening expiration time.

Lake Effect Snow Showers...

High Impact Weather...Accumulating Snow in the Snowbelts.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow accumulations.

Fairly steady cold air advection Sunday into Sunday night which will activate the lake effect snow machine (though lake/850 mb delta ts are only in the modest mid teens range). The flow is primarily northwest so expect lake effect bands to form across the three big lakes. Parts of northwest lower should see a long fetch due to an expected double connection off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.
Looking at model soundings however indicates that moisture will be fairly shallow with inversion heights in the 3000-4000 feet range.
The long fetch length could still produce 1 to 2 inches of snow with locally up to 3 inches during the day Sunday in favored areas of northwest lower with similar amounts again possible Sunday night.
Could see a few inches in total across western sections of Chippewa and Mackinac counties as well. It's borderline but can't rule out a few areas needing winter weather advisories. Activity could linger into Monday morning followed by a break for Monday afternoon and evening as over lake instability wanes due to warm air advection.

Another shot of colder air advects in Tuesday into Tuesday night behind an Alberta Clipper which passes by to our north late Monday night. Synoptic (system) snow is expected to be limited to eastern upper and far northern lower where around an inch of accumulation is possible late Monday night into early Tuesday. The colder air following will increase over lake instability once again leading to more snow showers Tuesday (though moisture looks even more limited).
The best chances for accumulating snow appears to be confined across eastern upper.

Temperatures will definitely feel cooler but still above normal.
Highs in the 30s with lows in the 20s. It will be brisk at times due to gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

Lingering Lake Effect then Another Warming Trend...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to linger Tuesday night into perhaps early Wednesday. Appreciably warmer air then advects into the region Wednesday into Thursday. A surface cold front crosses the region Friday with cooler (but not cold) air to follow into early next weekend. All in all fairly benign weather is expected during the long term.

Deep low pressure will quickly lift NE from Eastern Lake Superior to James Bay a closed upper low pivots thru the Western Great Lakes tonight and into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.
Another wave of precip will move thru Northern Michigan tonight associated with the upper low...but precip type will be a mix of rain and snow showers. Precip type will switch to mainly snow showers later tonight thru Sunday as colder air arrives in the wake of the upper low. This colder air will increase over-lake instability...producing scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers Sunday and Sunday night. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR thru the 24 hour forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the W/SW at 15 to 25 kts tonight...shifting to the NW on Sunday.

Gale force wind gusts remain possible into this evening with winds out of the south to southwest. While winds will diminish tonight, Small Craft Advisory conditions will be seen into Sunday as winds turn to the northwest. Scattered rain showers this evening will transition to northwest flow snow belt lake effect snow heading into Sunday.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi32 min WSW 11G13 45°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi62 min W 6G14 45°F 29.6634°F
TBIM4 13 mi92 min WSW 19G20 44°F
PRIM4 - Presque Isle Light, MI 20 mi72 min 19G30
SPTM4 - Sturgeon Point Light, MI 26 mi72 min 0G9.9
45212 37 mi37 min 43°F6 ft

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Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAPN ALPENA COUNTY RGNL,MI 6 sm67 minSW 11G2010 smPartly Cloudy45°F34°F66%29.69

Wind History from APN
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes   

Gaylord, MI,

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