Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:56 PM Moonrise 1:03 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 959 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Overnight - North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 160345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost over inland Northern Lower Michigan late tonight

- Warm through early next week with occasional rain chances

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Low level ridge axis extends from James Bay thru Eastern Ontario into much of the Western Great Lakes region late this evening.
Skies are clear across our entire CWA ..and will remain so thru the overnight hours. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s...with some patchy frost expected across some interior sections of Northern Lower Michigan.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging sliding across northern Michigan through tonight, sandwiched between eastern CONUS troughing and upstream troughing over the upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the region from the north. Upstream trough approaches the western Great Lakes by later Thursday, introducing shower chances.

Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan through tonight with just a few high clouds at times.
Likely also still some low concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke from time to time, although the heaviest concentrations of this remain west of us. Another night with decent radiational cooling leading to large diurnal temperature ranges, with colder locations in the lower to mid 30s with patchy frost. Upstream trough approaches on Thursday with increasing afternoon clouds and a few showers possible in Lake Michigan coastal areas by early evening with increasing PWAT's and mid level isentropic upglide. Widespread highs in the 70s, with 60s near the coasts and over eastern Upper.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A fairly progressive weather pattern through the long term. Possible upper level disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional rain chances. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

Forecast: Energy emerging out of the Plains will likely bring a line of showers across the region Thursday night with rain chances lingering into Friday. Embedded non-severe thunderstorms are possible as well. The timing/strength of individual waves this weekend is a bit uncertain but at this point am not expecting a whole lot of shower activity. The best chance of any rain appears to be Sunday with Saturday likely to remain rain free (the wetter GFS looks overdone with phasing of northern and southern stream energy unlikely). Even Sunday could be overdone with a weakening/moisture starved northern stream wave moving through. So overall, a comfortably warm weekend with small shower (and perhaps thunderstorm) chances in order. Mainly weak waves possibly moving through the flow early next week present more rain chances but again the timing/extent of which remain uncertain at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be several degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. Perhaps not quite as warm heading into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Pronounced low level ridge axis currently extending thru Ontario and much of the Western Great Lakes will slowly slide eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes and New England overnight and Thursday
Meanwhile
an upstream cold front will push into the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight and into the Western Great Lakes on Thursday
Skies will remain mostly clear overnight
then mid and high clouds will gradually increase from west to east on Thursday well in advance of that cold front. Still appears increasing precip chances along and ahead of this front will hold off until after 00Z Friday. VFR conditions will hold over Northern Michigan for the next 24 hours despite increasing clouds. Light/variable surface winds overnight will become E/SE at around 10 kts on Thursday...with some lake breeze development expected near the lakeshores.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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