Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calais, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
606PM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will continue to track eastward and out of the state this evening. Some scattered rain showers may continue to wrap around the low center and back into the eastern half of the forecast area through the early evening hours, but will continue to clear out by midnight tonight. Northwesterly winds will begin to advect cooler air into the region tonight into Sunday. For tonight, overcast skies will prevent much in the way of radiational cooling, so temperatures will remain mild in the low to mid 40s. Recent rainfall has increased low level moisture, and with falling temperatures from the northwest, patchy fog may develop overnight, leading to patchy limited visibility through the early Sunday morning hours.

For Sunday, overcast skies are likely to continue under a narrow ridge of high pressure. With overcast skies during diurnal heating and continued cold air advection, highs will only reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Clds with the next low from the Great Lks will cont to increase Sun Ngt with leading shwrs reaching Wrn and Nrn areas Mon Morn.
Shwrs will consolidate to lgt to mdt steady rn durg Mon Aftn and Eve as the warm advcn occluded front from this system apchs. Rnfl from this phase of the event will be arnd 0.50+ msly across Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA with a little less ovr Downeast areas.

Latest models are in a little better agreement with the idea of a deformation band of at least mdt, possibly hvy rnfl forming ovr the FA pre daybreak Tue and contg spcly ovr the Ern hlf of the FA thru Tue Aftn. The band forms as a result of sig s/wv energy digging SSE from the Ern Hudson Bay are of Can twrd the Gulf of ME, with a sfc low forming on the cold front as the front crawls ewrd across the FA Tue Morn. This scenario seems reasonable given that NAO is fcst to become more negative during this tm frame. Amgst the dtmnstc models, again Tdys 12z dtmnstc GFS is the most progressive and lightest with rnfl with this band, while the CanGem is the slowest and heaviest. The 12z ECMWF is somewhere in between, and this is where the fcst is currently hinged where we indicate upwards to an additional inch of rnfl msly Tue Morn and Aftn alg the NB border with lesser amts further west. Needless to say, there is uncertainty with rnfl with this phase of the event, with the potential of sharp QPF gradients. Only if the CanGem model solution were correct with its upward to 2 inches of rnfl Tue Morn into Erly Tue Eve would we have to be concerned of any flooding concerns and its to erly to have confidence in this scenario attm.

For now, we show rn tapering to shwrs from SW to NE across the Rgn Tue Eve into the Ovrngt as the deformation zone lifts out.
Colder llvl air advcg ewrd behind the cold front will likely result in rn chgng to sn Tue Aftn and Eve ovr trrn ovr 3500 ft MSL ovr the NW and Cntrl ME Highlands, including Mt Katahdin where a lgt slushy accumulation is possible from the table to summit.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Aftwrds, sig cooler and unsettled wx conditons will prevail ovr the FA Wed thru Fri with the nearby presence of an upper low and additional s/wv energy from Hudson Bay Can Wed Ngt and Thu.
It will cont to be cold enough for rn/sn shwrs over higher trrn ovr the NW/N Cntrl mtns, with additional lgt accumulating snfl ovr highest trrn like Mt Katahdin. Downeast areas will have more in the way of sunshine due to downslope winds. Blended long range models then slowly drop PoPs below chc across the N late Thu Ngt with drier but cont'd cool and msly cldy conditions on Fri. With the upper low finally moving further E from the Maritimes ovr the open N Atlc, we are optimistically fcstg partial clrg for Fri Ngt into Sat across the N with a little milder aftn high temps Sat, but this area may still hold on to intervals of BKN-OVC SC cld cvr durg this tm while Cntrl and Downeast areas hold on to ptly to msly sunny skies.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Low cigs are likely to continue through the night tonight, and be slow to lift through the day on Sunday. Cigs will generally sit around MVFR/IFR this evening, becoming IFR across the north overnight. Downeast terminals may hang onto MVFR a bit longer, though dips to IFR are possible through early Sunday morning. MVFR likely to remain across all terminals through the day on Sunday. NW winds 5 to 10 kts tonight may shift NE around 5 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low VFR/MVFR clgs.
Lgt and vrbl winds.

Mon Morn...all TAF sites MVFR clgs and intermittent vsbys in shwrs. Lgt SE winds.

Mon Aftn - Tue...all TAF sites low MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and patchy fog
Lgt SE winds
becmg lgt W Tue.

Tue Ngt - Thu...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs with sct rn shwrs.
Downeast sites MVFR-low VFR clgs with isolated shwrs. Lgt to mdt WNW winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA tonight through Sunday. A few wind gusts may approach 20 kts behind the frontal passage tonight. SE swell continues today through tonight, with 9 second period increasing to around 14 seconds on Sunday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Seas increase to SCA on Mon msly ovr outer MZs likely from some long pd swell from Hurricane Kirk, contg into Tue. After a break Tue Ngt thru Wed, WNW winds could reach SCA on Thu behind a departing Maritimes low. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs composed of a short pd group with 2 to 3 sec pds and an open Atlc group with 10 to 12 sec pds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.