Thursday, September19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marinette, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:57PM Thursday September 19, 2019 2:21 PM CDT (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1224 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 19 2019
This afternoon..S wind 5 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday..SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
LMZ521 Expires:201909192230;;032886 FZUS53 KGRB 191724 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-192230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marinette, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 191736
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1236 pm cdt Thu sep 19 2019
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Update
Issued at 641 am cdt Thu sep 19 2019
although conditions will become less favorable for training of
storms and upstream regeneration later today when the 925-850 mb
flow weakens, it is still strong enough this morning to result in
a persistent band of convection from central into northeast
wisconsin. Cells are starting to develop south of the main band in
east-central wisconsin. That and the MCS developing over southwest
wisconsin should lead to a gradual weakening and southward shift
in the position of the band. But that is not apparent yet. Luckily
the heaviest rains thus far have fallen over the bay. Calls to
marinette and door county have not revealed any reports of
flooding yet. Will continue to monitor closely. If the position of
the band does not change substantially in the next 1 2 hour, the
flood advisory will at least need to be extended and perhaps
expanded south some.

Synopsis
Issued at 402 am cdt Thu sep 19 2019
continued warm and rather humid with scattered showers and
thunderstorms the next few days, then turning a little cooler and
much less humid by late in the weekend.

A highly amplified upper pattern was in place across north
america, with a seasonably deep trough in the west and an
intense expansive ridge from the lower mississippi valley through
western quebec. The pattern will gradually lose amplitude and
become progressive as energy ejecting out of the western trough
rides northeast and flattens the ridge. The large scale flow will
evolve toward a lower amplitude longer wavelength regime, with
broad ridging off the west coast and a large shallow trough over
the central and eastern portion of the continent by the middle of
next week.

Southwest upper flow between the current western trough and
eastern ridge will maintain a feed of warm, moist air into the
area for a few more days. That will result in continuation of well
above normal temperatures and rather humid conditions through
Saturday. After that, a more westerly trajectory aloft will bring
much drier and a little cooler air into the area, through
temperatures are likely to remain above normal. Very high pwats
will be across the area during the first portion of the forecast
period, and probably result in above normal precipitation amounts
for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 402 am cdt Thu sep 19 2019
a weak diffuse warm front was slowly shifting east across the
area, with mid-upper 60f dew points gradually overspreading the
area from the west behind the front. The cold front that was
advancing east into wisconsin from the west was slowing and
weakening, and will likely wash out near the western edge of the
forecast area. That will leave a very moist and somewhat unstable
air mass across the forecast area until a stronger cold front
arrives this weekend. There will be upticks and lulls in the
showers and thunderstorms across the area as subtle forcing and
diurnal trends modulate the convection. Adding meaningful detail
to the pop grids rapidly became difficult with time, and went with
a general trend toward low-end chance pops as the ability to
latch onto specific forcing for lift decreased with time.

In general, severe weather parameters were marginal at best this
morning and expected to weaken with time. Deep-layer shear was
20-30 kts early this morning, and will weaken to 10-20 kts. Wet-
bulb zero heights will remain high. Isolated gusty winds could be
generated by wet microbursts from cell mergers, but those will
most likely remain sub-severe. Pwats will be very high and
combined with the weak shear that will favor heavy rainfall. 850
mb flow was 25-35 kts this morning, but forecast to weaken later
today, making continued regeneration of intense rain producing
storms over the same area somewhat unlikely. So while locally
heavy rainfall is possible with the storms, the threat of
excessive rainfall does not appear great.

Trended toward a blend of the recent top performing guidance
products for temperatures, with some local modifications--
especially near the lake and bay.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 402 am cdt Thu sep 19 2019
warm and humid air ahead of an approaching surface cold front and
mid level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
Saturday and Saturday night. Generally dry but cooler conditions
will prevail the rest of the weekend into next week as surface
high pressure and a weak mid level ridge pass across wisconsin.

Though it will be cooler, temperatures will still be near or a
little warmer than normal into the middle of next week. Another
passing cold front will bring chances for showers and storms back
to the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1234 pm cdt Thu sep 19 2019
vfr conditions are expected at most TAF sites through this
afternoon; however, some MVFR conditions may linger briefly into
the early afternoon hours. Tonight, models continue to indicate
ifr lifr conditions are possible at each of the TAF sites
tonight. The lowest ceilings and visibilities are expected to be
across the central and north-central portions of the area, where
some clearing is possible. Winds will be light, so any clearing
could lead to rapid fog development, potentially dense.

Intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
through Friday. Timing is difficult to pin down at this point and
confidence in them impacting the TAF site is low; therefore, have
left this out of the tafs. &&

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 1 mi52 min S 5.1 G 8 67°F 65°F1016.5 hPa65°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 14 mi42 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 67°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 35 mi42 min SE 6 G 8.9 64°F 1016.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi52 min S 8 G 9.9 61°F 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI3 mi26 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F87%1017 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI21 mi26 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRB

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS14SE14S11S12S10S11S8S11S10S10S9
G17
S9S11S7S9W4SE6E3S4CalmSW7CalmSW6SW5
1 day agoSE10SE8SE10SE12SE9SE7S5S7S3S3S5S6S4S5S6S6S5SW4S8S8SW12S12
G17
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G16
2 days agoSE33S5SE3SE6SE4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6S8S7S10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.