Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menominee, MI

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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 051157 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 557 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Friday Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Main focus will be dealing with light snow associated with a clipper system today/tonight, chances for freezing drizzle as clipper departs, and how much clearing will occur tonight which will impact just how low temps will drop.

For today and this evening . weak clipper system still on schedule to track across the area . with the surface low moving from near Minneapolis around noon . to Milwaukee this evening. Some dry air below 10,000 ft will need to be overcome at the onset, then look for a band of light snow to set up north of the surface low track, roughly north of a Wausau to Kewaunee line. Totals still look to be on the light side as far as clipper systems go, but around 1" still a good bet near the MI border, with lower amounts farther south. A narrow band of slightly higher totals could set up where the combination of stronger lift in the dendritic grown zone (DGZ), deeper moisture, and higher snow ratios (15:1) occur. As the system exits this evening, model soundings showing mid-level moisture stripping out limiting ice crystals in the cloud, which could lead to a period of drizzle or freezing drizzle, but not sold on this scenario so limited the mention of freezing drizzle.

Overnight . the system snow will transition to lake effect snow showers across north central WI as winds shift to the northwest and 850mb temps drop to between -10C and -13C, producing delta Ts in the middle teens. Best period of lake effect snow in Vilas Co. should be from 03z to 09z Friday when NNW flow combines with the higher inversion heights and deepest moisture. But overall setup does not look impressive and does not last long. Highest accumulations will be in the U.P., but minor additional accumulations are possible in Vilas Co. Some questions remain on just how much clearing will take place in the late evening and overnight hours. While drier air will filter into the area, some moisture below 5,000 ft will keep at least some low clouds in the area. This will especially be the case across the north where the added moisture from Lake Superior should keep skies mostly cloudy. Partial clearing is expected farther south. If skies do clear out over the north, a fresh snowpack would allow temps to drop into the single digits, even with surface winds in the 4-7 mph range.

For Friday . lingering lake effect snow activity will come to an end across far north central WI early in the day as inversion heights drop and moisture diminishes. Otherwise, a dry and cold day will be on tap as a large area of high pressure spreads into the western Great Lakes. Any lingering morning clouds should give way to mostly sunny skies. Mid-upper clouds will increase in the afternoon as a increased moisture aloft and a shortwave approach from the north west. Highs should range from the lower 20s across north central WI to the upper 20s in the Fox Valley and lake shore.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

The main weather stories over the next week mainly revolve around snow potential followed by the bitter cold during the Monday thru Wednesday time period. The latest ensemble means indicate the upper air pattern briefly amplifies during this period, with low pressure tracking across the southern Great Lakes, and arctic air arriving in its wake. Because there remains substantial model spread regarding the details of the surface low, prefer to take a general model blend for these later periods.

Friday night through Saturday night . High pressure, initially over the region at the start of Friday evening, will depart to the east at the same time as clipper energy slides towards the northern Great Lakes. Similar to the system expected today, the clipper may bring light snow to areas over far northern WI on late Friday night into early Saturday morning, but little to no accumulations are expected at this time. Temperatures may have a brief opportunity to tank early Friday evening when winds are light and before mid and high clouds arrive ahead of the clipper. Once this system passes, southerly winds will bring in warmer temps on Saturday. Low pressure will be passing north of the region on Saturday night. Southerly winds will continue, which should lead to mild temps. But some low clouds may return, particularly over the upslope areas of central and north-central WI. The blend insisted on a small precip potential late on Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but this is likely overdone due to a lack of deep saturation.

Rest of the forecast . The low will slowly drag a cold front across the area on Sunday. Dynamics will remain to the north, so the threat of precip will remain low. Temps will be quite mild, and most likely the warmest over the next week, with highs ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s. As the front moves east of the area on Sunday night, digging shortwave energy over the Plains will generate a surface wave along the front, which is then expected to track northeast into the southern Great Lakes during the late Sunday night and Monday time frame. Colder temps will be arriving by this time, while forcing aloft increases ahead of the shortwave. Because Gulf moisture will be already shunted east of the region, it is difficult to see a big snow event out of this system. But a few inches of accumulations do appear possible. A bitterly cold airmass will then follow for late Monday night into Wednesday. The arctic high is forecast to track southwest of the region, which will be favorable for wind chill headlines.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings prevailed across central and northern WI this morning. MVFR VSBYs due to patchy fog were found across central WI. VFR conditions prevailed across eastern WI.

Any lingering fog across central WI will lift early this morning. Then look for the MVFR CIGS to expand across the area as a clipper system and upper level disturbance push across the state. Light snow will spread into mainly northern WI late this morning and afternoon then end this evening. KRHI will see some minor accumulation, with brief IFR conditions possible north of a Rhinelander to Marinette line as the snow moves through. KGRB and KAUW could see some flurries. The rest of the TAF sites look to remain dry.

Partial clearing is expected early Friday morning, except at KRHI were lake effect clouds and possibly a flurry will remain in place. High pressure will bring good flying conditions later Friday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Bersch LONG TERM . MPC AVIATION . Bersch

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI	2 mi	60 min	N 5.1 G 7	27°F	36°F		1015.7 hPa	19°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI	15 mi	74 min	N 1.9 G 4.1	28°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI	46 mi	60 min	Calm G 2.9	33°F			1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI	1 mi	58 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	21°F	67%	1017 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI	23 mi	58 min	no data	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	31°F	21°F	69%	1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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