Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Menominee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:44 AM CDT (13:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 409 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing S by mid-day. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..S wind 10 to 15 kts veering sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Periods of showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
LMZ521 Expires:201908171615;;767530 FZUS53 KGRB 170909 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 409 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-171615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menominee, MI
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location: 45.12, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 170857
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
357 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
through tomorrow. Warm and rather humid weather then next couple
days will transition to cool and dry weather by the latter part
of the upcoming work week.

The primary band of westerlies across north america will flatten
and recede north to the northern u.S. And southern canada the
couple days, then undergo amplification early in the upcoming
work week. Initially during the amplification, troughs will deepen
near the west coast and in the hudson bay region, while ridging
builds over the rockies. Slow progression and a gradual loss of
amplitude is expected during the latter part of the work week.

Warm and humid conditions are expected the next couple days as the
westerlies recede north and upper heights across the area rise.

The humidity will drop off Monday, but the warm temperatures will
persist through Tuesday. Then developing northwest upper flow
downstream from the ridging slowly advancing east across the
plains will bring a cooler air mass of canadian origin into the
area for the remainder of the work week. AOA normal precipitation
is expected for the period, mainly due to the rain that falls late
tonight through Sunday. Amounts during the rest of the period will
probably be rather limited.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
the overall weather situation during the short-term portion of the
forecast is straightforward--a strong upper trough will swing
through the area during the next 18-36 hours, bringing another
round of significant rainfall. But there is still considerable
uncertainty concerning the exact details.

Quiet weather is expected today as shortwave ridging shifts across
and off to the east of the area. A couple of the hi-res models
indicated that a few air mass showers might pop up this afternoon
over northeast wisconsin. But the support for precipitation did
not seem sufficient to warrant breaking up the dry forecast. Even
if something develops, coverage will be very limited.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight as a warm front lifts
toward the area from the south and a strong shortwave approaches
from the west. A considerable number of models drive an mcs
northeast into the area late tonight as 850 mb flow over the
approaching boundary increases. While that is possible, have
concerns that the boundary is currently pretty far south and there
does not appear to be much of an organized southerly flow to push
it northward very quickly. Convection currently firing down near
the boundary won't help, either. Brought chance pops quickly ne
across the area after midnight as scattered convection could
develop over the area, but held pops below likely due to concern
the MCS tonight could stay displaced south of what is shown on the
models. If an organized MCS does reach the area, the main risks
would be of heavy rainfall and gusty winds, though severe winds
are unlikely.

Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday
morning as isentropic lift over the boundary continues and some
upper support arrives from the west. The bulk of the convection
should shift off to the east by early afternoon, prior to the
arrival of a cool front from the northern plains. Thunderstorm
chances Sunday afternoon will depend on how quickly the morning
convection departs and if some clearing occurs behind it. The
most likely scenario is that there won't be enough destabilization
for severe storms to fire along the front and that's why the area
was left out of the severe risk designation on the SPC swody2.

But that is not a given, and increasing winds aloft shear along
with mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 k km would certainly be
favorable for strong or severe storms if low-levels destabilize
enough to support surface based convection.

Stayed close to a blend of recent top-performing guidance products
for temperatures.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
the latest ensemble means continue to intensify the cold snap
centered around the Wednesday to Thursday time period of the
upcoming week. No other significant changes, however, are apparent
during this part of the forecast. In addition to temps during this
time, forecast concerns generally revolve around thunderstorm
chances early in the week. Will continue to rely on the ECMWF gfs
for this part of the forecast.

Sunday night through Monday night... A cold front will be progressing
southeast across northeast wi on Sunday evening. Models show some
decent instability ahead of this front, but wonder if this is overly
ambitious given the rain that is expected to move across the region
during the morning. Furthermore, moisture convergence is pretty
weak, while most of the upper support has exited to the northeast.

Will therefore keep only a small chance of a storm in the forecast
in case instability does develop as models show. High pressure then
is expected to build into the region from the northwest behind the
front for the rest of the night. A decent surge of dry air will
accompany the high, which should lead to ground fog formation
especially where rainfall is most prolific on Sunday. Models
project the front sliding far enough south that rain chances on
Monday look too low to mention. Temps should remain slightly above
normal on Monday afternoon. The front will try to lift north again
on Monday night at the same time as another cold front moves into
northern mn. Between systems, Monday night is looking more dry as
well.

Rest of the forecast... The next cold front then is projected to
slide southeast across the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Given the arrival time near peak heating with substantial
instability ahead of the front estimated to develop, will have to
watch this time period for a chance of severe weather. Behind the
front, a substantial cool down takes place for Wednesday and
Thursday. 850mb temps are progged to fall 6 to 8 degrees below
normal in the ECMWF ensemble mean by 12z thu. Forecast low level
temps equate to upper 60s to mid 70s for highs during these days.

Temps will rebound at the end of the week ahead of the next front,
which looks to arrive sometime next weekend.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019
patchy ifr lifr conditions are likely with fg st across the area
this morning. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected until
showers begin to overspread the area tonight.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 2 mi56 min SW 7 G 8.9 63°F 72°F1012.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 36 mi64 min SSW 1 G 2.9 64°F 1012.2 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi56 min W 6 G 7 66°F 1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI1 mi1.8 hrsSSW 55.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1011.3 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI23 mi1.8 hrsSW 69.00 miFair62°F62°F100%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW10SW9S8SW9
G18
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SW5CalmE3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4SW53
1 day agoN3SW3E6E76SE8SE7SE8SE8S6S4S6S6S4SW4CalmS4SW5S5SW4S3CalmS4S7
2 days agoNE7NE10
G17
E13E12NE10NE10E8E95E4NE3N3CalmCalmN3NW3N3NW3NW3CalmNW3N3N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.