Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menominee, MI

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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI

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Fxus63 kgrb 170857 afdgrb area forecast discussion national weather service green bay wi 357 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019 forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance Synopsis Issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019 periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight through tomorrow. Warm and rather humid weather then next couple days will transition to cool and dry weather by the latter part of the upcoming work week. The primary band of westerlies across north america will flatten and recede north to the northern u.S. And southern canada the couple days, then undergo amplification early in the upcoming work week. Initially during the amplification, troughs will deepen near the west coast and in the hudson bay region, while ridging builds over the rockies. Slow progression and a gradual loss of amplitude is expected during the latter part of the work week. Warm and humid conditions are expected the next couple days as the westerlies recede north and upper heights across the area rise. The humidity will drop off Monday, but the warm temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Then developing northwest upper flow downstream from the ridging slowly advancing east across the plains will bring a cooler air mass of canadian origin into the area for the remainder of the work week. AOA normal precipitation is expected for the period, mainly due to the rain that falls late tonight through Sunday. Amounts during the rest of the period will probably be rather limited. Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019 the overall weather situation during the short-term portion of the forecast is straightforward--a strong upper trough will swing through the area during the next 18-36 hours, bringing another round of significant rainfall. But there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the exact details. Quiet weather is expected today as shortwave ridging shifts across and off to the east of the area. A couple of the hi-res models indicated that a few air mass showers might pop up this afternoon over northeast wisconsin. But the support for precipitation did not seem sufficient to warrant breaking up the dry forecast. Even if something develops, coverage will be very limited. Precipitation chances will increase tonight as a warm front lifts toward the area from the south and a strong shortwave approaches from the west. A considerable number of models drive an mcs northeast into the area late tonight as 850 mb flow over the approaching boundary increases. While that is possible, have concerns that the boundary is currently pretty far south and there does not appear to be much of an organized southerly flow to push it northward very quickly. Convection currently firing down near the boundary won't help, either. Brought chance pops quickly ne across the area after midnight as scattered convection could develop over the area, but held pops below likely due to concern the MCS tonight could stay displaced south of what is shown on the models. If an organized MCS does reach the area, the main risks would be of heavy rainfall and gusty winds, though severe winds are unlikely. Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning as isentropic lift over the boundary continues and some upper support arrives from the west. The bulk of the convection should shift off to the east by early afternoon, prior to the arrival of a cool front from the northern plains. Thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon will depend on how quickly the morning

convection departs and if some clearing occurs behind it. The most likely scenario is that there won't be enough destabilization for severe storms to fire along the front and that's why the area was left out of the severe risk designation on the SPC swody2. But that is not a given, and increasing winds aloft shear along with mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 k km would certainly be favorable for strong or severe storms if low-levels destabilize enough to support surface based convection. Stayed close to a blend of recent top-performing guidance products for temperatures. Long term Sunday night through Friday issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019 the latest ensemble means continue to intensify the cold snap centered around the Wednesday to Thursday time period of the upcoming week. No other significant changes, however, are apparent during this part of the forecast. In addition to temps during this time, forecast concerns generally revolve around thunderstorm chances early in the week. Will continue to rely on the ECMWF gfs for this part of the forecast. Sunday night through Monday night... A cold front will be progressing southeast across northeast wi on Sunday evening. Models show some decent instability ahead of this front, but wonder if this is overly ambitious given the rain that is expected to move across the region during the morning. Furthermore, moisture convergence is pretty weak, while most of the upper support has exited to the northeast. Will therefore keep only a small chance of a storm in the forecast in case instability does develop as models show. High pressure then is expected to build into the region from the northwest behind the front for the rest of the night. A decent surge of dry air will accompany the high, which should lead to ground fog formation especially where rainfall is most prolific on Sunday. Models project the front sliding far enough south that rain chances on Monday look too low to mention. Temps should remain slightly above normal on Monday afternoon. The front will try to lift north again on Monday night at the same time as another cold front moves into northern mn. Between systems, Monday night is looking more dry as well. Rest of the forecast... The next cold front then is projected to slide southeast across the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Given the arrival time near peak heating with substantial instability ahead of the front estimated to develop, will have to watch this time period for a chance of severe weather. Behind the front, a substantial cool down takes place for Wednesday and Thursday. 850mb temps are progged to fall 6 to 8 degrees below normal in the ECMWF ensemble mean by 12z thu. Forecast low level temps equate to upper 60s to mid 70s for highs during these days. Temps will rebound at the end of the week ahead of the next front, which looks to arrive sometime next weekend. Aviation For 12z TAF issuance issued at 352 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019 patchy ifr lifr conditions are likely with fg st across the area this morning. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected until showers begin to overspread the area tonight. Grb watches warnings advisories None. Synopsis... ... .Skowronski short term... ..Skowronski long term... ... Mpc aviation... ... .Skowronski

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI	2 mi	56 min	SW 7 G 8.9	63°F	72°F		1012.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI	36 mi	64 min	SSW 1 G 2.9	64°F			1012.2 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI	46 mi	56 min	W 6 G 7	66°F			1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI

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S10 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI	1 mi	1.8 hrs	SSW 5	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	59°F	57°F	96%	1011.3 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI	23 mi	1.8 hrs	SW 6	9.00 mi	Fair	62°F	62°F	100%	1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)

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S8

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.