Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Menominee, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Precipitation tonight...
A surface low will track into the area this evening, accompanied by a mid-level shortwave. The highest rain chances (70-90%)
accompanying the low will be on the northern edge of the warm air this afternoon across northern Wisconsin, mainly north of a line from Merrill to Oconto. Probabilistic guidance keeps a corridor of 40-60% chance of exceeding a half an inch of rainfall for the northern areas. Precipitation potential will quickly taper off south of this line, with around 20-40% chance across most of the rest of the area. Still, would expect some short-lived showers to produce some quick accumulations for central to east- central with more measurable precipitation for northern Wisconsin. Some meager upper instability accompanying showers could prove sufficient to produce an occasional rumble of thunder (10-20% chance), but expect widespread thunderstorms to be unlikely.

Precipitation Towards the End of the Week... A larger phasing system is expected towards the end of the week as southern and northern streams merge. Phasing systems generally have much uncertainty in terms of timing but some general agreement has come into alignment with the most recent forecast cycles. Rain will start sometime in the late morning to afternoon hours and cross the region into the overnight hours. How long the system remains around into Friday remains uncertain and will depend largely on whether the phasing occurs overhead or to our east. On the shorter end, dry conditions could be back by Friday morning and on the longer end some wrap around moisture could keep a few showers around into Friday afternoon. Both solutions do still suggest bringing enough cold air in on the backside of the system to produce the first snowflakes across far north- central Wisconsin near the Upper Peninsula border, but accumulations will generally be brief and light. This system will also bring another period of windy conditions for Friday.

Temperatures...
The near-record temperatures today will be the warmest temperatures in the forecast, with high temperatures seeing a downward trend through the end of the week. Friday is expected to be the coldest day, with highs in the upper 40s in the northwoods to middle 50s in the warmest areas. A small warmup trend is then in store for the region over the weekend into next week.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon as high clouds cross the region. Cloud coverage then increases ahead of a surface low pressure system that will bring showers into portions of northern and central Wisconsin. Confidence on the southern extent of showers remains low, so maintained a PROB30 group for TAF terminals across central to east-central Wisconsin. Confidence is higher for the north so included the TEMPO for the rain passage this evening.

Lower clouds will wrap in behind the low pressure system in the mid to late morning tomorrow, so would expect ceilings to drop to MVFR and eventually IFR during the mid-morning hours of Tuesday.
Some improvement will be possible towards the end of the TAF period as clouds begin to scatter out again.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.