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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 129 Am Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am cdt early this morning through late tonight...
Overnight..S wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Today..S wind 15 to 25 kts. A chance of light showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts veering W after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 040303 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1003 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM
Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Forecast focus on a cold front that will bring an end to the record breaking warm temperatures on Wednesday.

A surface high will push east of the area this evening, allowing a low pressure system and attendant cold front to approach the region from the west. The cold front will make its way over the upper Mississippi Valley tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms entering western Wisconsin late tonight. The precipitation is expected to hold off tonight, with another dry and warm night expected across the area. Lows tonight are expected to only fall into the lower to middle 60s, which is around what our normal high temperature should be for this time of year.

The cold front will push its way into the area during the day on Wednesday, but will only make it as far as central and north- central Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon. This will mean another very warm day across the region on Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures across northeast and east-central Wisconsin since the cold front will not have moved through by then. Temperatures across these areas are not expected to reach record values given the cloud cover expected ahead of the cold front, but they will be within a few degrees of those records. Highs on Wednesday are expected to range from the lower 70s across north-central to the upper 70s across east-central Wisconsin. A very tight pressure gradient will mean very gusty winds on Wednesday as winds gust as high as 35 mph at times.

The cold front will also bring an area of showers and a few thunderstorms from west to east as the day progresses; however, the weak dynamics with the frontal boundary should keep the activity scattered at best instead of a solid line of rain pushing through the region. Despite the possibility for thunderstorms, MUCAPEs will only be at best 500 J/kg so severe weather is not expected. Some gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms given inverted-V sounding profiles; however, given synoptic winds will gust as high as 35 mph these winds may not gust much higher than the winds being experienced for much of the day.

LONG TERM
Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Synopsis: A pattern change will be occurring early in the period as the longwave trough-ridge pattern will translate east over the coming days. By Friday, the trough will become centered over the Great Lakes before stalling over the eastern Great Lakes and Appalachians by next Monday. Beneath and on the backside of the trough, much cooler and showery weather is expected for the region.

Precipitation: The chance of light precip will be ending early in the evening as a cold front exits northeast Wisconsin. A trailing cold front will bring a secondary small chance of showers on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rainfall amounts look very light, however.

As the upper trough axis settles overhead, showers are likely on Friday across the region, with coverage increasing with the heat of the day. Delta T's will be increasing to 20C by late Friday night over western Lake Superior so expect showers to continue across far northern WI into Saturday. Drier air finally pushes across western Lake Superior by Saturday night, which should end the lake effect showers. Then drier weather is expected for Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures: Will be trending downward into Saturday before leveling off. The largest temp drop will occur on Friday behind the secondary front when highs range from the middle 40s to middle 50s.
A frost or freeze appears possible for Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night with forecast lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Clouds and winds will lead to challenging low temp forecasts during this time period.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Middle and high clouds will increase overnight. A cool front moving across the region Wednesday may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday morning north of a Wausau to Iron Mountain line, but VFR ceilings are expected otherwise.

Skies should clear Wednesday night, with patchy ground fog possible in the northcentral part of Wisconsin late at night.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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