Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Menominee, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Main focus is on active period of storms with possible severe weather and heavy rain through Wednesday evening.

Near Term Trends: Main cold front is over central MN with storms starting to develop from northeast SD into west central MN, but showers and storms have been developing most of the day along outflow from morning storms that crossed Lake Superior and northern Upper Michigan. These storms have not been handled well by majority of models, but thus far they also have not moved much to the east.
Eventually, given effective shear around 30 kts and MLCAPES 1000-2000J/kg isolated severe risk could move into Vilas County this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch mainly west and north, but Vilas County is included as severe storms could clip far north- central Wisconsin. Main risk will be damaging wind gusts and smaller hail. PWATs up to 1.8 are well above 90th percentile and warm cloud depths above 12kft will support locally heavy rainfall especially within training storms. Showers and some storms will continue through rest of the night at times over northern WI, though capping will keep rest of area free of showers and storms.
Will be warm and humid night ahead of the approaching front.

Thunderstorm chances and severity Wednesday/Wednesday Evening: Active, potentially high impact, weather in store for Wednesday as MCV approaches and interacts with building instability of MLCAPES of 1500-2000J/kg late morning to early afternoon. Effective shear of 30-40 kts will result in organized storms will all hazards possible. Enhanced 0-1km and 0-3km SRH along and north of the northern edge of the MCV lead to at least a small potential of a tornado. Heavy rain is a concern with robust moisture laden convection as PWATs increase to over 2 inches and possibly as high as 2.25 inches which would be a maximum for the day. Warm cloud depths are forecast to be over 13kft which will lead to very efficient rainfall. Higher-end HRRR QPF forecasts of 3+ inches are probably reasonable in this setup, but it is just not clear where exactly the heaviest rain will occur with the MCV. Thought about issuing a Flood Watch, but uncertainty in the heaviest rain precludes it at this time.

Outlook: Frontal boundary shifts east by Thursday. Trend is for a drier day now as main bulk of showers are well to the east by daybreak. High pressure still forecast to settle over the western Great Lakes for the end of the week. The high will bring cooler and less humid, more comfortable conditions to the region. Dry weather will be brief. West-northwest flow will bring the next chance of showers and storms to the state as early as Friday night. Currently it looks like greatest chances for rain will last into Saturday evening, with Sunday mainly dry. Temperatures look seasonable with highs upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Primary risk of showers and storms through tonight will be over north-central WI, including RHI, late this afternoon through this evening. Scattered showers could linger most of the night.
Continued to include mention of gusty winds at RHI when greatest risk of thunder occurs this evening. Otherwise, sct-bkn VFR CIGS will become bkn and lower to IFR and MVFR late tonight through end of the TAF period central to north-central WI as cold front approaches from the west. VFR CIGS will prevail farther east at GRB/ATW/MTW. Southerly gradient winds will remain gusty to 15-20 kts through 00z-01z this evening.

Looking ahead, showers and storms, some strong to severe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, are expected to impact majority of the TAF sites just beyond the TAF period Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.