Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Menominee, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Sunday

A cold front will track across the region this evening. The atmosphere is rather dry; however moisture convergence along the front is expected to produce a broken line of showers and thunderstorms coincident with a mid level PV anomaly tracking through northern Wisconsin. Recent model runs show the best chances will be across northern Wisconsin, where the best moisture and dynamics will reside, with lesser chances further south. A fairly strong wind field aloft will mean a few of the more vigorous showers or storms could bring wind gusts to 50 knots to the surface. The elevated nature of the storms and MUCAPE profiles also indicate some large hail will also be possible. The front will be fairly quick moving, with the activity out of the area by midnight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s across the north, to the lower 50s across east-central Wisconsin.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front on Sunday, with continued breezy conditions as a tight pressure gradient remains across the western Great Lakes region. The gusty winds could result in elevated fire potential; however, with cooler temperatures and higher RH values the threat could be lower, depending on how much rain falls this evening. Highs on Sunday are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north, to the lower 60s across east-central Wisconsin.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday

Upper-level troughing will exit our area to the east, but then linger over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. through midweek. This will keep Northeast WI in a cooler pattern until a broad upper-level ridge builds in from the west later in the workweek. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s for most locations on Monday night and warm only slightly for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Low-lying areas in north-central WI could see lows around 30 Monday night. High temperatures across our region will generally be in the 60s through Wednesday before returning to the 70s on Thursday and Friday as the upper-level ridge arrives.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected this evening and tonight, with the exception being some MVFR (and possibly short-lived IFR)
conditions as a broken line of showers and isolated storms quickly spread west to east across the area this evening ahead of a cold front. Best coverage and lowest conditions will be across northern WI. Clearing is expected behind the front, with high-end MVFR (RHI) and low-end VFR (GRB/ATW/GRB) clouds (mainly between 2000-5000 ft) pushing into/across the area on Sunday as colder air arrives.

It will be breezy through much of the TAF period, but a lull is expected as we lose the better mixing this evening into tonight.
Gusty south winds up to ~25 kts, will shift to the west late this evening behind the cold front, gusting to ~20 kts through much of the night. As winds shift to the west, a period of LLWS will be possible, mainly across eastern WI, as winds at 2000 ft will remain between 45-55 kts. LLWS will also be present tonight when winds are not gusting at the surface. West-northwest winds will gust to ~30 kts on Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of an approaching cold front late this afternoon. Gale force winds will continue this evening as the cold front sweeps through Wisconsin, then ease below gale force back to small craft conditions late tonight.
Small craft conditions will continue Sunday and Sunday evening with gusty west to northwest winds behind the cold front.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.