Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:22PM Friday February 28, 2020 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 305 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
.gale warning in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Tonight..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Isolated snow showers early in the evening. Freezing spray through the night. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202002290415;;237763 FZUS53 KAPX 282005 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 305 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-290415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 282006 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 306 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

. And the LES Keeps Rolling On .

High Impact Weather Potential . Moderate to heavy snow bands will continue over the region for mainly NW Lower and E Upper Michigan tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . As was expected, the sfc low in southern Quebec, which is very broad, has kept the winds NW over the forecast area all night and now all day. This is expected to continue into the evening, before dry air moves into the region, slowing the LES down a bit, then warm advection at 850 mb will raise the temperatures by 12z/Sat to around -11c in Lake Michigan. Almost all of the models are pegging the same area that has been getting the snow the last 24 hours (SE Antrim/NE Kalkaska/SW Otsego/NW Crawford) to continue into the evening. After 12z/Sat, the winds begin to back to the west and then SW by 00z/Sun, and the warm advection stops the instability over the Upper Great Lakes. So have some minor to light amounts for Saturday, with the expectation that it all stops by 00z/Sun as high pressure builds into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns . As with any LES event, there is always a risk of this continuing, and that the snow amount could be larger. This case is no different, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the initial portion of the evening the snow amounts will be dependent on the residence times of the bands. And if the dry air doesn't get in here until Saturday morning, and the warm advection doesn't start on time, which are the main uncertainties of LES forecasting, then we could get some heavier snow amounts, even into Saturday.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Winds will continue to back to southerly by Sunday morning ahead of a weak cold front associated with a clipper system over western Ontario and a high pressure ridge moving off to the east of the forecast area. This clipper system will produce some clouds, but no precipitation is expected at this time as aforementioned cold front is moisture starved at the low and mid levels. These southerly winds will continue to advect warmer than normal temperatures to the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, while nighttime lows Sunday night drop into the the upper 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

High pressure appears to dominate the forecast area through at least Tuesday evening . producing precipitation-free weather and mostly clear skies to partly cloudy skies. The next chance for precipitation midweek with a clipper system to our north dragging another weak cold front through northern lower and a developing low in the southern Plains trekking towards the Great Lakes region . although models have not been very consistent nor in agreement on said systems. Will have to keep an eye on these systems and continue to update the forecast as necessary. Any snow we do get has a chance to mix with or completely change over to rain during the warmer than normal temperatures during the afternoon hours continuing. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows will generally be in the 20s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 107 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

Northwest winds continue to gust to 30 knots around N Lower and E Upper today. With the tight gradient from the sfc low in southern Quebec, winds will continue this way through the evening and probably won't start to diminish until after 06z/Sat. The Northwest winds will continue the lake effect snow as well, with the main focus being TVC and then to a lesser extent PLN with MVFR CIGs and VSBYs that drop to IFR from time to time. APN is on the end of several bands, and will be in and out of snow through the evening, but should remain mainly MVFR for CIGS and VSBYS. mbL looks to remain VFR with occasionally dropping to MVFR VSBYs. However, there is chance that if the winds shift a bit more north, then the bands could shift more to the south and produce some lowered VSBYs.

After 06z/Sat, the winds will diminish and begin to back to the SW overnight and into Saturday. This begins warm advection, and the colder air retreats to the NE and the lake effect will end. It looks like the TAF sites would be out of the LES by 17z/Sat.

MARINE. Issued at 304 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

Tonight through Sunday . As the sfc low continues to move from southern Quebec and into Nova Scotia, the pressure gradient will slowly slacken this evening, and slacken much more overnight, winds will diminish a bit this evening, but really am expecting the wind to fall below Gales around midnight and be close to falling below small craft criteria by 12z/Sat. High pressure then builds into the Upper Great Lakes through Sunday and keep winds and waves below small craft criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ088. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ086- 087-095-096. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ016>018-020-022>024-026-028-029-033-099. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 018-020-021-025-031-099. WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ021-027. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345-346-349. GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JL SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JL MARINE . JL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi57 min NW 23 G 31 25°F 1011.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi55 min NW 17 G 23 21°F 33°F1007.7 hPa16°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KGLR

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5N7NE95N75N46N4Calm6NW7NW6NW5NW5NW456NW8
G23
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G26
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2 days ago----------6
G14
66CalmN4N65N4CalmNE5NE6NE7NE9NE6N8
G16
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.