Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:39PM Saturday September 21, 2019 5:16 PM EDT (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 347 Pm Edt Sat Sep 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Numerous showers and a chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201909220400;;139730 FZUS53 KAPX 211947 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 347 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-220400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211921
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
321 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 319 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019

Locally heavy rain possible tonight...

high impact weather potential: localized rainfall amounts in excess
of an inch tonight.

A (final?) hot humid day in northern mi. Temps are pushing 80f in
eastern upper mi, and well into the 80s in northern lower. With
summertime dew points in the upper 60s, MLCAPE values are in the
500-700j kg range. That is enough to pop some showers in lower
mi. SE lower mi has had a few t-storms, but no lightning noted
this far north just yet. Warm moist air will continue to stream
northward, ahead of a cold front pushing into western mn. This
moisture has a tropical component (imelda remnants). Precip trends
are the main concern.

Very rich 850mb theta-e air advecting into the region. 12z NAM gfs
both have pwat values of around 2" crossing central lower mi this
evening. We exceed the 90th percentile at circa 1.15", so it is
ridiculously moist. But forcing for ascent here is not impressive;
1000-850mb convergence is maximized overnight in central and
southern lower mi. We see slow and steady 500mb height falls
tonight, well ahead of a closed 500b pushing into far western quebec
toward daybreak. Still, with an extremely moist and marginally
unstable airmass, it should take very little to sustain showers and
a few t-storms tonight. Likely numerous pops in order across
northern mi thru the 1st half of the night. Pops will dwindle just a
bit late overnight north of m-72, as more concentrated convection
just downstate sucks up the available energy.

Given the extremely moist airmass, it would not take much of healthy
rainfall amounts, even with a relative paucity of forcing. Highest
qpf in the grids is down toward saginaw bay, 0.5-1.0", but locally
higher amounts are certainly possible. Will continue a mention of
locally heavy rain across the entire area in the hwo. However, given
tropical-like warm temps aloft and limited instability, svr storms
are unlikely.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 319 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019
short term (Sunday through Tuesday):
high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible Sunday night
through Monday morning. Heavy rain potential Sunday through Monday
morning.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
return moisture from the gulf of mexico (possibly enhanced by the
remnants of tropical storm imelda) will impact northern michigan.

Models have 1.50-2.00" pwats progged for our area through Sunday
night ahead of a weak, very slow moving cold front associated with a
low pressure system near hudson bay approaching from the west. This
will provide southerly to southwesterly winds through Sunday and
then veer to more westerly and northwesterly Monday after frontal
passage. There is even a larger spread from ensemble members today
for QPF amounts... Ranging from a tenth of an inch to nearly
3.00"... For a mean of about an inch to an inch and a half. The mean
has increased the past couple runs overnight and this morning, with
another 1.00"+ throughout the day Sunday into Monday morning. So
still not very confident with QPF amounts and will have to continue
monitoring each model run for updates. Wpc still has the forecast
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for day 2. With
unfavorable synoptic conditions for strong to severe
thunderstorms... Any thunderstorms that do develop should not have
any severe threat... With mostly heavy rain and lightning being the
main threats. Cold frontal passage will be Monday morning, with wrap
around moisture continuing the threat for rain showers throughout
the day. High pressure and drier air will finally build back into
the area Monday night into Tuesday morning... Bringing a return to
precipitation free weather and a bit warmer than Monday. High
temperatures will be back to normal, only reaching into the upper
mid 60s to low 70s. South to southwesterly winds will be gusty
through Sunday ahead of said cold front... Gusting to 20-30 mph, with
the strongest gusts near the lake michigan shoreline. Winds will
veer Monday to northwesterly behind aforementioned cold front and be
a bit breezy before becoming light and variable under high pressure
Tuesday.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 319 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
Tuesday night will see continued weak shortwave ridging moving
overhead with surface high pressure continuing to dry things out.

Another low treks through ontario Wednesday into Thursday, dragging
another front across us for renewed shower chances. Temperatures
return to near normal or slightly above normal for much of next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 128 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019
strong heating has boosted temps into the low mid 80s in northern
lower mi. A few showers are already popping in response, a bit
south of mbl. These will gradually expand ne-ward this afternoon,
with shower risks (and perhaps a t-storm) for mbl tvc pln by early
evening. Showers t-storms will become more numerous tonight,
impacting all TAF sites, with heavy rainfall possible. CIGS will
eventually lower, with MVFR to ifr CIGS by Sunday morning.

Gusty S to SW winds.

Marine
Issued at 319 pm edt Sat sep 21 2019
gusty S to SW winds will continue into Sunday, before a cold front
crosses the area. Small craft advisories are already issued for
all waters, and these are reasonable. Showers and a thunderstorms
will occur during these periods, with heavy rainfall possible.

Some spotty marine fog is also possible.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Sunday
for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Sunday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Sunday
for lsz321-322.

Near term... Jz
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi17 min S 16 G 21 79°F 66°F2 ft1014.8 hPa (-2.0)67°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi37 min S 6 G 9.9 80°F 1014.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi53 min N 5.1 G 9.9 68°F 66°F1014.8 hPa
45175 46 mi18 min WSW 1.9 G 5.8 71°F 65°F1 ft1014 hPa66°F
WSLM4 48 mi47 min SSW 16 74°F 67°F1014.2 hPa65°F
45183 49 mi17 min SSW 9.7 G 14 74°F 65°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI17 mi42 minSW 7 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F56%1014.2 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI17 mi24 minSSW 14 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds80°F64°F60%1015.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI19 mi37 minS 7 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F66°F53%1014.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI20 mi22 minSSW 9 G 1810.00 miFair84°F67°F57%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGLR

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE55CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S9S10S12
G19
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G20
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G22
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1 day agoS7S6S3S4SW3S3S5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmN333SE543
2 days agoS13S9S7S8S9S9S10S10S12S10
G19
S12S8
G17
SW8S9S8S9S13SW8S7SW9SW10SW10SW10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.