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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 303 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Through early evening..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Tuesday..West wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 102016 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 316 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snow today- tonight.

Forecast Details: Northwest flow lake effect snow is ongoing across the forecast area and is expected to continue through the night. The most persistent bands impacting the forecast area are primarily across Antrim and Kalkaska counties (with a Lake Superior connection evident), and another in eastern Lake Superior cutting across central Chippewa County south of the Sault. The setup is still not ideal with inversion heights not much higher than 4K feet and inversion top temperatures not much cooler than -10C to -11C. Still, lake-inversion top Delta Ts are about 15C or a little greater. In addition, a subtle synoptic forcing boost/moisture enhancement is expected over the next several hours as an impulse within the mean upper-level trof overhead slides across the area. However, while this upper-level wave should provide additional forcing, low-level winds are now forecast to wobble a little as it moves through.
Earlier model progs suggested low level winds would be locked in from the northwest through the night, but recent high- resolution runs of several models now support winds going from northwest to north and back to northwest. The shifting winds will result in the snow being sprayed over a larger area, likely reducing peak snowfall totals.

Snowfall accumulation in most favored northwest flow snow belts is still expected to be on the order of 1 to 3 inches total by tomorrow morning. Accumulation of 3 to 6 inches remains possible for the Antrim and Kalkaska county Winter Weather Advisory area, especially across Kalkaska county. This is a slight decrease from earlier forecast due to the above described wind wobbling and also because temperatures have been warm enough today for most snow to melt as it falls or shortly thereafter.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Occasional Snow Shower Chances

High Impact Weather...Additional snow in some areas.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and snow accumulations.

Northwest flow lake effect snow showers linger into Monday morning but activity is expected to diminish in the afternoon with waning over lake instability and drier air working their way in from the southwest. Additional accumulations should be on the order of an inch or less.

Attention then turns to an Alberta Clipper system dropping down across central Ontario Monday night into Tuesday. Much of the forcing and moisture associated with this system will be focused across eastern upper and perhaps far northern lower. System snow is expected to arrive late Monday night into early Tuesday with an inch or less of accumulation anticipated. A shot of sharply colder air then follows with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -13 to -16 C range. This should fire up the lake effect machine once again Tuesday into early Wednesday. The flow is west or perhaps just north of west. Moisture however does not appear to be very impressive across northern lower (mean 1000-850 mb rh 40 percent or less).
Better moisture across eastern upper could lead to a couple of impressive lake effect bands up that way with a few to perhaps as much as several inches of accumulation possible.

Ridging/drier/milder air return by Wednesday afternoon which should end any lake effect activity.

Forecast highs will be in the low and mid 30s Monday and Tuesday then the mid 20s to low 30s Wednesday. Lows Monday night in the mild mid 20s to near 30 with the colder mid teens to low 20s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Uneventful and Mild Conditions Expected

A nearly zonal flow aloft through the period which is expected to lead to unseasonably mild temperatures. Chances for precipitation will be on the low side with perhaps a couple of ripples moving through the flow bringing low end chances for rain and/or snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Low clouds, enhanced by over-lake instability, will provide mainly MVFR CIGs across the area through the 18Z TAF valid time.
Most of the lake effect snow in this setup is expected to miss the terminals, with KCIU being the most notable exception. Gusty northwest winds will gradually taper off tonight, with a shift to westerly late in the period.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory winds and waves will taper off tonight for a time. However, SCA conditions are expected to return Monday night into Tuesday as the next weather system moves through the area.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MIZ021-027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LHZ347>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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