Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rib Lake, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Monday

Light rain continued to spread northward into central and east- central Wisconsin this afternoon. Temperatures were in the middle 40s to lower 50s, with the coolest readings near the bay and Lake Michigan.

For the rest of the afternoon, will spread int north-central and far northeast Wisconsin, with rain continuing overnight as low pressure moves into Wisconsin. Across portions of east-central Wisconsin, the first wave of rain will move north this afternoon, then there may be a break or lull in the rain early this evening before the steadier rain arrives later this evening. Attention turns to late tonight into early Monday morning where the precipitation may change over to sleet or snow for a period of time, generally from 09z to 16z on Monday. Official forecast has up to an inch of snow in Vilas County. The HRRR probabilities indicated a 20-60% chance of 1" of snow, with the highest probabilities across northwest Vilas County.

Rain and snow will continue early Monday morning, then precipitation chances will be on the decrease through the day as low pressure moves away from the area. The HRRR probabilities indicated a 80-100% chance of 1" of precipitation north and west of the Fox Valley with a 50-70% chance across the Fox Valley east to the lake. Gusty northwest up to around 35 mph are possible from late morning through late afternoon on Monday. Highest gusts are expected across northeast Wisconsin.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday

Precipitation will quickly come to an end Monday evening across north-central Wisconsin, as a shortwave ridge provides dry conditions for the rest of Monday night. The dry weather will be short lived as another low pressure system brings a period of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system will not be as dynamic as the one earlier this week, with rainfall amounts expected to be much lower. Probabilities of reaching or exceeding 0.25 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night are only 15-25% across central and east-central Wisconsin.

After another brief break in precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night, another low pressure system will affect the area to end the week. There are model uncertainties in the Thursday to Friday timeframe regarding the amount and placement of the highest rainfall amounts. However, there is consensus that a low pressure system will emerge from the Plains and track through the western Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. The main question that continues to plague the forecast is what happens after that.
The GFS/ECMWF plunge high pressure from southern Canada across the midwest on the heels of the departing low, with dry conditions most of Friday and into next weekend. The Canadian still brings a second low through the central Great Lakes region on Saturday, keeping Wisconsin wet through Saturday and delaying the dry conditions until Sunday. Both of these conflicting solutions have been remarkably consistent from run to run, which doesn't lend confidence in either solution, with the LREF 500mb clusters showing quite a bit of variability in this time frame. The wettest time frame still appears to be Thursday night, which continues to be the target for the highest chance for rain (50-60% chance). However, given the model differences beyond Thursday night there isn't much clarity in how this low will continue to affect the region into next weekend.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Area of light rain with VFR conditions is quickly shifting north this evening. A lull in the rain will occur through 02z-03z east- central, while showers continue from central to north-central WI as conditions trend more MVFR. Widespread showers with potential for thunder (LIFR-IFR cigs and IFR-MVFR vsby area-wide) then return for the rest of the night as low pressure over northeast MO arrives across WI. Greatest risk of thunderstorms (IFR vsby)
will be at MTW, ATW and GRB 05z-10z, for which TEMPO groups have been added. Rain ends from south to north on Monday as low pressure system exits across northern Lake Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan. Before the rain ends over the north, it will switch to rain/snow north of a line from TKV to IMT.

East winds gusting to around 20 kts this evening, increase to around 25 kts overnight. LLWS will be present as low-level jet increases to 45 kts 2kft AGL. Winds shift to the west and northwest on Monday, with gusts AOA 30 kts area-wide, strongest from 17z-22z.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.