Big Sky, MT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Sky, MT

June 16, 2024 10:39 PM MDT (04:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 9:17 PM
Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Sky, MT
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Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 170244 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 844 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region. Mountain snow and widespread low elevation rain are forecast, through the early part of the coming week. Low elevation high temperatures reach back into the 70s by Thursday.

UPDATE

Only minor adjustments needed to this evening's forecast period.
Cooler Canadian air has already pushed south over the plains of North Central Montana, so have lowered hourly temperatures to reflect this.

Mid-level moisture is increasing from the southwest ahead of the approaching system, but no precipitation has been observed yet west of the Continental Divide, so the timing of the precipitation moving into the area mainly after midnight appears to be on track.
-Coulston

AVIATION
17/00Z TAF Period

Expect increasing and lowering ceilings through the overnight hours. A few light showers will affect areas north of Highway 2 this evening. The precipitation starts to become more widespread over Central and Southwest MT after 12z Monday. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet by Monday afternoon. Some IFR conditions are possible in areas of heavier showers. Overall, expect widespread rain/snow showers to affect much of the CWA Monday afternoon and night. Mountains/passes will be obscured starting later this evening then throughout the day on Monday.
Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ Today and Tomorrow...Cool low elevation temperatures are forecast. Areas of light rain are forecast north of the Hi-Line through this afternoon. This evening, the next weather producer enters the region, beginning with precipitation falling across southwest Montana. The forecast is for low elevation rainfall, with accumulating snow forecast at elevations, generally, above 6000 feet.
- Fogleman

Tomorrow, continued...Precipitation will become more widespread and heavier Monday morning with the upper level low moving passing through the region. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms with precipitation on Monday/Tuesday afternoon due to a little amount of instability present. Precipitation lingers into Tuesday along another wave passing through the region. Snow probabilities in the mountains are between 30-50% for exceeding 8" of snow. Considering the bulk of the snow being above pass level and probabilities for accumulations to reach winter warning criteria (9 inches) remain on the lower side, I have opted to transition the Winter Storm Watches for mountain zones into Winter Weather Advisories. Another change I've made to the winter highlights is to move up the timing to 6pm Sunday to 6pm Tuesday to account for the earlier start and end times for precipitation.
Greatest QPF amounts look to set up across Central MT, where they have around a 50% of exceeding 1". Most other lower elevations across the CWA have at least a 50% of exceeding 0.25". In terms of possible higher end QPF amounts, the 75th NBM percentile ranges between 1.25-1.5" across Central MT and 0.35-0.75" across most other lower elevations.

With the upper level low bringing down colder air, cold overnight temperatures are forecasted for Monday and Tuesday morning.
Tuesday morning wind chills in the mountains can drop down to the teens and 20s. Those in the backcountry should prepare for cold/raw conditions.

Wednesday and looking beyond...The main upper level low will move off to the east, and a zonal/southwest flow aloft pattern will settle in behind for the remainder of the week. There looks to be enough moisture around and small disturbances that passes through to keep low chances of precipitation daily. With the southwest flow aloft bringing in warmer air, temperatures will gradually warm up through the weekend. By Saturday, lower elevations have a 60-80% of high temperatures reaching 80 degrees or higher.
-Wilson

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 42 49 40 57 / 40 90 80 80 CTB 37 53 37 55 / 20 80 60 70 HLN 44 54 42 63 / 60 100 80 80 BZN 41 56 37 59 / 30 90 90 70 WYS 38 52 30 52 / 20 70 70 60 DLN 39 52 34 56 / 30 90 70 50 HVR 42 57 42 61 / 10 90 70 60 LWT 38 52 35 55 / 30 90 90 80

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Northwest Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KEKS ENNIS BIG SKY,MT 18 sm24 minNNE 1410 smOvercast50°F19°F30%29.84
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Billings, MT,




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