DISCUSSION
Through Sunday... Broad troughing across the region will result in a southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. This will result in temperatures remaining near average, with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana each of the next few afternoons and early evenings. A wave progressing through this southwesterly flow aloft may result in a few showers lingering into the overnight Saturday night, though confidence in this is low at this time.

Monday and Tuesday... Flow aloft turns briefly zonal Monday afternoon, which will result in a day of breezy westerly winds across the plains. Overall Monday is looking dry, with temperatures continuing to remain near average.

An upper level disturbance then approaches the region from the Pacific Northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to overspread the region as a result on Tuesday, though confidence on timing is low at this time.

Wednesday into late next week... Upper level ridging looks to build back in Wednesday into late week. This will result in a dry period, with temperatures trending back above average. Uncertainty remains with respect to exactly how hot it will get, but confidence is high that we will trend warmer. -AM



AVIATION
27/00Z TAF Period

Main concern this evening is thunderstorms, mainly south of a line from Dillon to Bozeman. The storms will continue to slowly slide southeastward through the evening hours. Expect some dense smoke to move into Southwest MT after 3z. Visibility could fall below 3SM at times in some areas. Mountains/passes will be obscured. On Saturday, smoke in the morning, then another chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly south and east of a line from Helena, to Great Falls to Lewistown. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

FIRE WEATHER
Windy/dry conditions will continue over the northern half of the districts into early this evening. There is a small chance for storms Sat south of a Great Falls to Lewistown line. On Sunday, the storms shift to areas mainly east of a line from Havre to Helena.
Windy conditions expected on Monday, with another chance for more widespread thunderstorm activity on Tuesday. Temperatures look to trend back above average late week. Brusda/AM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 49 86 53 87 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 46 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 53 90 57 89 / 0 10 20 10 BZN 49 88 51 87 / 10 20 40 20 WYS 40 77 41 74 / 20 20 50 50 DLN 47 83 47 82 / 0 20 30 20 HVR 51 86 54 90 / 0 0 10 10 LWT 49 83 54 82 / 10 10 20 30

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-Hill and Blaine Counties.