Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Sky, MT
May 19, 2024 5:42 AM MDT (11:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 4:10 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 191120 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 520 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
Seasonably cool temperatures will be around the next week or so, with opportunities for precipitation most days. There is still some uncertainty in amounts, but Wednesday into Thursday looks to be the most impactful from a precipitation perspective.
DISCUSSION
Through Tuesday... To start the period, a series of upper level disturbances are in places from the Pacific NW northeastward across much of southern Canada, forming a congealed mess of a broad upper level trough. The next disturbance in the parade will shift eastward from the Pacific NW toward the Northern Rockies this morning, shifting eastward away from the region late today.
A brief period of frontogenesis in the 700-600 mb layer will result in a band of precipitation early this morning, generally in the Helena area east-northeastward toward Lewistown. This band will slowly shift southeastward through the morning, dissipating as mid-level support diminishes and shifts eastward late morning.
High resolution ensembles give high confidence in snow as the precipitation type in terrain. The Kings Hill Pass area has the best chance for a couple inches of snow with this band. A mix of rain and snow looks to be a good bet at lower elevations of Central Montana south toward the I-90 corridor through late morning. Given warm roadways I am not expecting too many impacts outside of reduced visibility at lower elevations where snow does mix in.
Given the cool temperatures aloft working in with this system, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms look to develop late morning into the afternoon, especially in areas that see less cloud cover early in the day. Most showers will diminish by sunset.
The next in the parade of upper level disturbances will largely miss the region to the south cool Monday into Tuesday. Although this is the case, cool temperatures aloft stick around into Monday and Tuesday, allowing additional showers to develop late morning through early evening across much of the region each day. Overall, not expecting much impact from these showers. Cool temperatures at the surface trend a touch warmer Monday, and get close to average for Tuesday.
Wednesday into next weekend... Ensembles are converging on a solution where a closed upper low dives southward from northern BC late Tuesday into the Pacific NW Wednesday, eastward across Southwest Montana Wednesday night into Thursday, finally exiting eastward late Thursday night or early Friday. This solution would bring a round of accumulating precipitation to the region, largely rain at lower elevations, with high mountain snow. The chance for a half an inch of total precipitation Wednesday through Thursday night is largely greater than 50% across much of the plains and across terrain.
Ensembles get a bit murky on the Friday through Sunday period, though temperatures near to slightly below normal with chances for lingering precipitation look reasonable at this point. -AM
AVIATION
19/12Z TAF Period
The first concern for today include a band of rain/snow across Central Montana, shifting southeastward through the morning.
Mountains are likely to be obscured around this band of precipitation. Next, as this band diminishes late morning, a round of late morning through evening showers is forecast for much of the region. Thunderstorms will be around, but confidence in timing and location were too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Trends will need to be monitored for introduction of thunderstorm mentions in TAFs later this morning or early afternoon. -AM
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 55 35 59 37 / 80 30 60 20 CTB 55 33 57 35 / 70 30 50 10 HLN 57 37 60 39 / 70 30 60 20 BZN 55 32 56 34 / 80 20 70 40 WYS 52 27 51 28 / 40 30 70 50 DLN 53 31 55 33 / 40 20 60 30 HVR 59 37 60 38 / 60 20 40 10 LWT 52 32 54 33 / 80 30 70 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 520 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
Seasonably cool temperatures will be around the next week or so, with opportunities for precipitation most days. There is still some uncertainty in amounts, but Wednesday into Thursday looks to be the most impactful from a precipitation perspective.
DISCUSSION
Through Tuesday... To start the period, a series of upper level disturbances are in places from the Pacific NW northeastward across much of southern Canada, forming a congealed mess of a broad upper level trough. The next disturbance in the parade will shift eastward from the Pacific NW toward the Northern Rockies this morning, shifting eastward away from the region late today.
A brief period of frontogenesis in the 700-600 mb layer will result in a band of precipitation early this morning, generally in the Helena area east-northeastward toward Lewistown. This band will slowly shift southeastward through the morning, dissipating as mid-level support diminishes and shifts eastward late morning.
High resolution ensembles give high confidence in snow as the precipitation type in terrain. The Kings Hill Pass area has the best chance for a couple inches of snow with this band. A mix of rain and snow looks to be a good bet at lower elevations of Central Montana south toward the I-90 corridor through late morning. Given warm roadways I am not expecting too many impacts outside of reduced visibility at lower elevations where snow does mix in.
Given the cool temperatures aloft working in with this system, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms look to develop late morning into the afternoon, especially in areas that see less cloud cover early in the day. Most showers will diminish by sunset.
The next in the parade of upper level disturbances will largely miss the region to the south cool Monday into Tuesday. Although this is the case, cool temperatures aloft stick around into Monday and Tuesday, allowing additional showers to develop late morning through early evening across much of the region each day. Overall, not expecting much impact from these showers. Cool temperatures at the surface trend a touch warmer Monday, and get close to average for Tuesday.
Wednesday into next weekend... Ensembles are converging on a solution where a closed upper low dives southward from northern BC late Tuesday into the Pacific NW Wednesday, eastward across Southwest Montana Wednesday night into Thursday, finally exiting eastward late Thursday night or early Friday. This solution would bring a round of accumulating precipitation to the region, largely rain at lower elevations, with high mountain snow. The chance for a half an inch of total precipitation Wednesday through Thursday night is largely greater than 50% across much of the plains and across terrain.
Ensembles get a bit murky on the Friday through Sunday period, though temperatures near to slightly below normal with chances for lingering precipitation look reasonable at this point. -AM
AVIATION
19/12Z TAF Period
The first concern for today include a band of rain/snow across Central Montana, shifting southeastward through the morning.
Mountains are likely to be obscured around this band of precipitation. Next, as this band diminishes late morning, a round of late morning through evening showers is forecast for much of the region. Thunderstorms will be around, but confidence in timing and location were too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Trends will need to be monitored for introduction of thunderstorm mentions in TAFs later this morning or early afternoon. -AM
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 55 35 59 37 / 80 30 60 20 CTB 55 33 57 35 / 70 30 50 10 HLN 57 37 60 39 / 70 30 60 20 BZN 55 32 56 34 / 80 20 70 40 WYS 52 27 51 28 / 40 30 70 50 DLN 53 31 55 33 / 40 20 60 30 HVR 59 37 60 38 / 60 20 40 10 LWT 52 32 54 33 / 80 30 70 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEKS ENNIS BIG SKY,MT | 18 sm | 32 min | NNW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 27°F | 56% | 29.82 |
Billings, MT,
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