Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horton Bay, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

First round of convective activity now well stage-right. Some clearing earlier this afternoon in its wake...but clouds now spreading back in as moisture increases from the southwest ahead of the positively tilted trough axis aloft...and subtle PV maxes embedded in the main flow. Surface low over SW WI with an area of convection developing over northern IL...and subtle/nebulous boundary across southern WI into northern MI to a surface low well north over Ontario. Winds generally NW behind this; generally some kind of southerly component ahead of this. Expecting the overall front/surface trough axis to slowly drop southeastward through the night; troughing lingers in the region through Saturday afternoon, with a much cooler but potentially breezy day...until high pressure finally tries to build back into the area late in the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Thunderstorm/severe(?) potential through tonight...at this point...not sure how much in the way of actual severe weather will end up developing. Do think we still have a shot at seeing some rain and perhaps embedded thunder through this evening. A lot of gravity waves showing up on satellite imagery with the mid/high moisture moving in...and do wonder if this will be able to influence anything that does try to crop up. Area of convection developing over S WI/N IL...and initial thoughts are this will primarily track through SW Lower MI again...where temps are warmer despite morning convection.
Across our area...think there is still enough instability aloft to support somewhat deeper convection if we can get enough forcing aloft to kick things off. Best chance for this would be generally along and south of the M-72 corridor...with hail still the most likely threat, followed by wind...though we may very well end up on the stratiform rain side of things yet again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Easter Sunday looks like it will be alright weather wise with sunshine giving way to increasing cloudiness. Temperatures for most will be near seasonable levels (low and mid 50s), except cooler near the Lake Huron shorelines as easterly winds come off the cold lake.
More much needed rainfall is then expected Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves across the region. Winds will be gusty at times as well. The remainder of the forecast looks mainly uneventful with extended guidance varying on possible disturbances moving through the flow. Seasonably warm Monday followed by cooler readings on Tuesday. This is likely to be followed by a warming trend through the remainder of the work week with highs in the 50s and even 60s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Some clearing over most of northern Lower attm, but redevelopment of MVFR cigs from TVC/MBL toward Y31 already ongoing as of 17z. Cigs slowly improving for CIU this afternoon. Expecting some rain/TS to develop across the area later this afternoon into this evening, esp for APN to TVC
with cigs/visbys crashing to MVFR/IFR
and LIFR largely after 0z for all sites. Window for TS should be 20z to 05z.
Wind shift from SW to NW expected starting first in the EUP and tracking toward Saginaw Bay; variable winds elsewhere with some lake breezes possible (already seeing this at TVC). Winds increase for Sat AM with sustained 10-15kts gusting 25kts; MVFR cigs with some daytime showers possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349.