Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlevoix, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

First round of convective activity now well stage-right. Some clearing earlier this afternoon in its wake...but clouds now spreading back in as moisture increases from the southwest ahead of the positively tilted trough axis aloft...and subtle PV maxes embedded in the main flow. Surface low over SW WI with an area of convection developing over northern IL...and subtle/nebulous boundary across southern WI into northern MI to a surface low well north over Ontario. Winds generally NW behind this; generally some kind of southerly component ahead of this. Expecting the overall front/surface trough axis to slowly drop southeastward through the night; troughing lingers in the region through Saturday afternoon, with a much cooler but potentially breezy day...until high pressure finally tries to build back into the area late in the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Thunderstorm/severe(?) potential through tonight...at this point...not sure how much in the way of actual severe weather will end up developing. Do think we still have a shot at seeing some rain and perhaps embedded thunder through this evening. A lot of gravity waves showing up on satellite imagery with the mid/high moisture moving in...and do wonder if this will be able to influence anything that does try to crop up. Area of convection developing over S WI/N IL...and initial thoughts are this will primarily track through SW Lower MI again...where temps are warmer despite morning convection.
Across our area...think there is still enough instability aloft to support somewhat deeper convection if we can get enough forcing aloft to kick things off. Best chance for this would be generally along and south of the M-72 corridor...with hail still the most likely threat, followed by wind...though we may very well end up on the stratiform rain side of things yet again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Easter Sunday looks like it will be alright weather wise with sunshine giving way to increasing cloudiness. Temperatures for most will be near seasonable levels (low and mid 50s), except cooler near the Lake Huron shorelines as easterly winds come off the cold lake.
More much needed rainfall is then expected Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves across the region. Winds will be gusty at times as well. The remainder of the forecast looks mainly uneventful with extended guidance varying on possible disturbances moving through the flow. Seasonably warm Monday followed by cooler readings on Tuesday. This is likely to be followed by a warming trend through the remainder of the work week with highs in the 50s and even 60s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

IFR cigs and accompanying showers with some embedded thunderstorms expected to spread across the taf sites this evening into the early overnight. Some storms may produce brief heavy rains and small hail. Slow improvement expected very late tonight into Sunday morning. Cigs expected to rise to VFR as we head through Sunday afternoon. Light winds become gusty out of the northwest later tonight and Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.