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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 354 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow in the morning. Snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 030840 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Mixed precip today

High Impact Weather Potential...Slushy snow accums into this evening in much of northern lower and part of eastern upper MI.
Touch of freezing drizzle this morning interior of northern lower.

High pressure is retreating eastward from Quebec, while 1007mb low pressure is near the WV/OH border. As a negatively-tilted upper trof moves over the central lakes today, the surface low will deepen as it moves nne-ward toward central Lk Ontario. These features will spread a swath of synoptic precip across the area today and this evening.

First off, shallow weak returns are seen on the APX radar early this morning, as lower cigs make slow northward progress into the area. OSC is reporting actual DZ (air temp 37f), and radar supports something similar inland, where temps are below freezing. Thus patchy DZ/FZDZ remains possible in central and southern areas this morning, before moisture deepens and snowflakes are introduced from further aloft.

Widespread synoptic precip will advance quickly ne-ward across most of northern MI this morning. The deepening system will support increased mid-level fgen and deformation forcing to its nw. Eastern upper MI will be the northern fringe of the expected precip shield, as dry easterly low-level flow tries to hold precip off. Expect central and northern Chippewa Co to see little if any precip. By contrast, most of northern lower MI will see 0.25-0.35" of precip (with lesser amounts as you get close to the Straits).

P-type: near and se of an APN-Gladwin line, the BL will remain relatively warm, assisted by easterly flow off of relatively warm Lk Huron. Though some snowflakes will mix in, rain will be the primary p-type there. In nw lower MI, downsloping winds and any weak diurnal heating contribution may allow precip to mix with rain for a time (especially near Frankfort and mbL). Elsewhere, snow should be most common, though a mild BL will help keep snow- liquid ratios somewhat low (10-13:1). Highest resulting snow amounts are progged at 2-3" with some localized 4", from GLR to Atlanta and Rogers. Up to 2" elsewhere. This somewhat slushy snow will likely bring some travel impacts, but these do not appear to rise to the level of an advisory.

Winds backing more northerly tonight will contribute to bringing drier air to the region, but this is a gradual process. Spotty light snow/flurries could linger into overnight, mainly in northern lower MI.

Max temps today 30s. Lows tonight mid 20s to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Likely minimal... outside freezing drizzle chance Monday morning; Clipper largely stays south of the CWA Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis: What can only be described as "disheveled troughing" is set to encompass the Great Lakes region through the short term forecast period. Initial departing wave that resulted in Sunday's precipitation will be ejecting eastward as drier air returns in conjunction with a drier surface high pressure setting up shop just south and east of James Bay. This will be quite integral in the influences of another approaching shortwave (Alberta Clipper)
from the Canadian prairies. This wave will likely become a bit more sheared as it dives into the Great Lakes, taking a drastic southerly turn through Wisconsin into central and southern lower Michigan, likely limiting the influences of lift and moisture across much of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Feasibility of freezing drizzle Monday morning; will there even be snow in the CWA Tuesday?

Potential concerns regarding freezing drizzle Monday morning should be mitigated rather quickly through the morning hours as lowering inversion heights and drier air aloft moving into the region should flush out any lingering low level moisture. Overall chance of any freezing drizzle remains very low as it is... and beyond this, not expecting much in the way of sensible weather through the day Monday owing to those upper levels just being too doggone dry to wring out any appreciable precipitation. Highs expected to be in the low-to- mid 30s (perhaps near 40 in some spots near the big lakes).
Attention then turns to the next incoming wave to the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. Given cold air overhead, any precipitation to be seen from this system should fall in the form of snow... but with that all being said, those upper levels will still be a bit stubborn in trying to moisten up as the system as a whole ducks south through central and southern lower Michigan. Best chances for any snowfall would likely favor areas away from the lakeshores along / south of a Frankfort to Gladwin line... and even then, potential for snow accums exceeding 1" remain quite low for the time being. Concerns could perhaps arise if enough moisture can pool in the low levels to produce some freezing drizzle (sfc temps in the upper teens to low 20s)... but the extent of any deeper surface moisture (and how far north it creeps into the region)
remain subject to uncertainty and will have to continue to be monitored in the coming forecast cycles. Highs Tuesday likely in the low-to-mid 30s, perhaps near or slightly above 40 closer to Lake Michigan from Empire to points south.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Ridging is expected to build over the Plains into the day on Wednesday, with resultant height rises and the departure of the troughing expected to signal a warming trend to close out the week.
there will be a catch, though... one last wave riding the outer reaches of the longwave troughing will likely allow for some active weather to commence around or perhaps just slightly after midweek.
This will bring about a temporary reprieve in the colder temperatures (if you want to call it that... average highs this time of year are in the low-to-mid 30s, so it has actually been rather seasonable in the grand scheme of things). Ridging builds into the Great Lakes on the heels of this passing wave, and the result will likely be highs swelling above normal, as of now looking at upper 30s to as high as upper 40s... which, in theory, should lead to at least a temporary setback in our newly acquired snowpack across the snowbelts.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Low level ridging in place across the Western Great Lakes will give way to a developing low pressure system that will quickly lift out of the Southern Plains and thru the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and then into the Eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Large area of mixed rain/snow will spread into Northern Michigan from south to north on Sunday...dropping conditions to MVFR during the onset and then to IFR as the precip shield becomes well established. Surface winds will remain from the E/NE under 10 kts tonight...strengthening to 10 to 20 kts on Sunday and then shift to the north Sunday night.

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Low pressure will strengthen as it moves ne-ward toward Lk Ontario today and early tonight. Current ene winds will gradually back toward the north thru tonight. Winds/waves are expected to remain below advisory levels.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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