Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday March 28, 2020 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 418 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning...
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202003281630;;187115 FZUS53 KAPX 280818 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 418 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-281630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 281046 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 646 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

. Brief periods of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms tonight .

High impact weather potential: Marginal risk for severe storms along and south of a Manistee to Harrisville line this evening . with large hail being the primary severe weather concern.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Amplified mid and upper level pattern found across the Conus at this early hour, with most prominent feature being full tropospheric trough emerging out of the Intermountain west. Active baroclinic axis already well estabilished out ahead of this system, as evident by developing surface low pressure back across the high plains, with a warm front extending east from this low across the lower Ohio Valley. Moisture rich environment along and south of this front as deep Gulf of Mexico connection has resulted in dewpoints in excess of 60F and precipitable water values up an over an inch. Deep layer jet dynamics spreading an elevated moisture plume much further north, interacting with northward bowing elevated portion of the warm front . kicking off showers and isolated thunderstorms across the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Dry low level environment across the northern Great Lakes keeping much of this activity off to our south, although suppose a few light showers may yet spread into northern lower Michigan early this morning. Otherwise, plenty of higher level clouds spreading overhead as upper level jet streak does the same. Combination of those increasing clouds and development of southeast winds on backside of retreating surface high has kept temperatures a bit on the mild side tonight, with most areas still in the 30s.

Ejecting western trough will continue to deepen as it takes on an increasingly negative tilt, eventually closing off as it pivots across the Corn Belt this evening, reaching vicinity central Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will respond as it should in such a favorably forced environment, steadily deepening as it becomes increasingly centered under its mid level parent tonight. Deep layer warm, moist advection out ahead of this system will spread increasing shower chances north into our area today and tonight, some of which may be accompanied by thunder as elevated instability plume spreads north in the process.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing temporal and spatial resolution of showers through tonight. Thunder chances and the low end potential for isolated severe storms will also need to be addressed.

Details: Wet period of weather definitely expected, especially as we into tonight. Shower coverage/organization remains a bit of a challenge today as best moisture intercept and strongest forcing remains to our south (along and north of surface based warm front) and to our southwest (strongest forcing ahead of primary wave). In addition, dry low level easterly flow will only intensify with time, especially the further north one goes. Guidance derived soundings bear this out, with only sporadic periods of sufficient deep layer saturation. So, definitely not expecting a washout through much of today, and very likely much of the period and most of the area will remain largely dry. Forcing ramps up in earnest by later this afternoon and evening with approach of that deepening shortwave trough. Strong southerly winds ahead of this system will spread deep moisture rapidly north into our area. Expect more intense and organized bands of showers to develop along intense northward surging theta-e gradient, spreading southwest to northeast across northern Michigan later today into this evening. May even hear a few rumbles of thunder this evening across northern lower Michigan as elevated instability plume of several hundred joules/kg spreads north. Brief periods of heavy rain will be possible, but transient nature of showers should prevent any significant hydro impacts (other than ponding on area roadways). Mid level dry slot punching northeast brings an end to the more organized shower activity to our southwest areas by Sunday morning.

As for severe potential: Latest SPC Day One Convective Outlook still places areas south of a line extending from Manistee to Harrisville in a marginal risk for severe storms this evening, with isolated large hail being the primary concern. Perusal of all hi-res guidance progs and simple pattern recognition of initial warm front placement concurs, with no surface based instability to interact with an increasingly favorable backed low level wind environment. Corridor of enhanced mid level lapse rates juxtaposed with surge of elevated instability plume may bring a few large hailers to our far southern areas. Given marginal nature of instability, definitely not entirely sold on this potential. Will continue to monitor, utilizing our hazardous weather products and graphics to convey this isolated severe storm potential.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

. A Warm Rain, then Turning Cooler .

High Impact Weather Potential . As temperatures cool night into Monday morning, there could be a mix of rain and snow or all snow, especially in the highlands. Possibly making a slippery morning commute.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . The models have the sfc low and the 500 mb lows roughly in the same place 12z/Sun. The tracks are similar, and the ECMWF seems a bit faster as 500 mb lows are about 100 miles apart. However, one notable difference is that the warm air is more entrained into the GFS solution than the ECMWF. This will help with keeping things warmer in general. If it wasn't for all the rain, that it looks to be a decent day, at least initially, to be outside. However, after 00z/Mon, as the back side of the sfc low moves into N lower, the colder air begins to drop into the region. With the cooler air aloft, and the sfc temperature dropping to around freezing, the rain will probably mix with snow at the lower elevations, and may change to snow in the higher elevations (areas around Gaylord). Monday morning, the temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 30s by 14z/Mon taking the precipitation back toward all rain, before ending by the afternoon. High pressure builds in overnight as things dry out.

Primary Forecast Concerns . If the ground cools back enough, and probably will, there could be slipper spots if the snow falls in the interior of N Lower, and some places in E Upper.

Winds have been a concern as of late. As the low tracks from Wisconsin, to N Lake Michigan, the pressure gradient slackens, so the winds are expected to diminish. The latest models are similar enough, that there will be lighter winds than we had in the previous forecast, but that will quickly change, once the sfc low moves across the region. Then the gradient tightens increasing the winds, and the gust potential. That would seem to be some time just after 21z/Sun on the west side of the state, and about 04z/Mon on the east. If the lows track to the north a bit morning, there could be some higher winds in our SE counties ahead of this system, but most of the evidence is pointing to a day of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, with a brief pause as the sfc low moves through the region.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Thunder Thursday? Snow or a mix Thursday night into Friday.

Extended (Tuesday through Friday) . Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern is relatively zonal, especially on the ECMWF. The GFS is a little more amplified as it pushes a northern branch feature into the N Plains aimed at the Upper Great Lakes. The ECMWF has this feature, but it is slower and more shallow with the jet pointed into the Upper Great Lakes. So the overall idea would be that Tuesday and Wednesday would be mainly dry, with the GFS suggesting that Wednesday night would be wet as the system moves into the region. Thursday, will be wet, no matter the model that you use. The question will be, based on this is will there be thunder as the ECMWF suggests. However, once the cold front moves through, then it will cool off, and the model soundings suggest snow or a mix will be possible as we go into Friday. The models continue their differences with the ECMWF more northerly idea, would put us into a drier idea, but with the 850 mb temperatures there would be lake cloudiness. The GFS would continue the chance for showers as the 500 mb low would move slowly off the Atlantic seaboard before drying, maybe, Saturday night.

If the ECMWF is right then the blends showing highs around normal (lower to mid 40s) for Tuesday through Friday is probably on track. If the GFS is right then we are going to be a little below normal (upper 30s to lower 40s at the least) Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Conditions to slowly deteriorate across the taf sites heading through today and tonight as deep low pressure pushes toward the region. Cigs with steadily lower to MVFR today to IFR tonight. More widespread showers arriving later today, and especially tonight . with brief periods of heavy rain possible. May even see an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening. East to southeast winds will become increasingly gusty through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Increasingly gusty east winds expected today as low pressure organizes to our southwest. Winds steadily veer tonight, becoming southwesterly on Sunday as low pressure pushes across the northern Lakes. Winds become northwest and remain gusty Sunday night into Monday morning as low pressure departs. Small craft advisories are likely much of this period on most nearshore waters. Still possible to see a few isolated gale gusts on portions of northern Lake Michigan Sunday, especially south of the Sleeping Bear Dunes. Showers will overspread the area, especially later today into tonight. May even hear a few claps of thunder this evening, with any stronger storms potentially bringing brief periods of erratic winds, some hail, and heavy rain.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . MSB MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi93 min E 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1012.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi55 min ENE 8 G 11 34°F 36°F1013.1 hPa32°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi18 minESE 310.00 miLight Rain40°F33°F77%1012.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi18 minENE 710.00 miOvercast37°F32°F83%1011.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi18 minN 010.00 miUnknown Precip40°F36°F86%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE3SE4E3E6E5E6N9N11N6N6NW4CalmCalmE3E3E5SE5SE5E5E6CalmE4SE6
1 day agoN5N5N4NW4NW4NW4NW7NW5N5N5N5N4N3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4
2 days agoS6S7S9SW10
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W9W6W7SW9SW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE3N4NE3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.