Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:34PM Monday January 27, 2020 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:54AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 209 Am Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202001271515;;581047 FZUS53 KAPX 270709 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 209 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-271515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 271115 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 615 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

. Areas of freezing drizzle this morning and tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential . Possibility of some freezing drizzle this morning and tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Upper low still slowly moving east and into Quebec with trough extending back across the Great Lakes this morning. Plenty of moisture trapped below 700mb across our region. 00Z KAPX sounding showed top of inversion around -9C with nearly saturated conditions through 6700ft. At the surface, low pressure over Nova Scotia with associated trough extending back through the southern Great Lakes. High pressure was centered over Saskatchewan.

Have not seen any observations of fzdz over the past couple hours. Thinking is that precipitation is very light and surface temps are near freezing, so impact should not be great. That said, moisture on roadways and temperatures dropping a couple more degrees by morning could leave some slippery spots on area roads.

No big push for systems to move quickly, so status quo through Tuesday. Moisture trapped below 700mb will be pulled to the slowly south and east. So inversion heights drop pretty quickly this morning which will lessen the amount of fzdz/sn-- across the area for the daytime hours.

Another surge of low level moisture returns this evening. Inversion top still around -10C so ice nucleation not definite and therefore at least the chance of some more freezing drizzle or light snow showers tonight and into Tuesday morning. Low level flow will be NNW or N which should direct lake effect snow/drizzle into areas west of I-75. Little QPF and accumulation is expected.

Cloud cover, climatic (average) cold time of year and lack of advection means temperatures should only rise a few degrees today. However, since we are starting warm (for this time of year), high temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

. Perhaps a few flurries or a little freezing drizzle .

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . Amount/timing/extent of freezing drizzle.

A weak and moisture starved short wave drops down through the flow Tuesday morning. This may prolong flurries or a touch of freezing drizzle as model soundings show moisture hugging the -10 C isotherm. Surface high pressure then builds in across Ontario later Tuesday into Wednesday likely ending any nuisance precipitation across northern Michigan. Temperatures will remain just above normal through the period.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

. Perhaps some late week and weekend snow showers .

High Impact Weather . None is expected at this time.

Forecast Concerns . Pops, mainly late week and next weekend.

High pressure/zonal flow aloft appear to hold on through Thursday night yielding mainly precipitation free conditions. Weak pieces of northern stream energy then move through the flow Friday on into next weekend. This setup in combination with marginal over lake instability will bring chances for snow showers. Temperatures through the period are expected to be a few to perhaps several degrees above normal.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 616 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Generally MVFR ceilings are expected through the day. A few morning areas of light drizzle or light snow showers are possible mainly at KTVC and KMBL. Otherwise, some drying of the lower layers of the atmosphere could help a few breaks to develop in the overcast skies during the day. Spotty areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle or light snow showers return to areas west of I-75 this evening and into Tuesday morning. Expect MVFR ceilings once again to start Tuesday.

MARINE. Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Gusty winds have all but ended across the area nearshores early this morning. As the low that brought the gusty winds moves further east, winds will continue to diminish. Light winds are then expected through much of the upcoming week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . KF SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . KF MARINE . KF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi63 min NNE 12 G 13 33°F 1013.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi61 min N 7 G 8.9 29°F 33°F1011.9 hPa24°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi47 minN 1010.00 miOvercast31°F25°F80%1012.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi48 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast29°F27°F93%1012.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi47 minN 03.00 miLight Snow31°F28°F90%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSW4SW3W3W3CalmSW3SW4SW4W5NW6W5W5NW6W5W9W9W10W10W12W12W14
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2 days agoE9E10
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E9E7E5E7E5E5E5E4CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.