Monday, May25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 9:18PM Monday May 25, 2020 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 247 Am Edt Mon May 25 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon, then becoming east early in the evening. Widespread dense fog early in the morning. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202005251915;;715393 FZUS53 KAPX 250647 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 247 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-251915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 250634 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 234 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

. Warm, muggy, and potentially stormy Memorial Day .

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now, although cannot completely rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Brief periods of intense rainfall also possible.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Mid and upper level pattern continues to amplify across NOAM, with northern Michigan dominated by northward expanding subtropical ridge axes ahead of deep troughing/dual upper level jet cores rotating through the Intermountain west and northern High Plains. Given those building mid level heights, condition are largely dry across the Great Lakes, although passing convective- induced small scale waves are managing to kick off a few showers across southwest and western areas of the region. Moisture rich low level airmass is drumming up quite a bit of fog and stratus for at least parts of the area, with some of the fog locally dense in some locations.

Deep southwest flow will only mature with time today and tonight across our area as upstream troughing slowly rotates east, reaching the Central Plains by morning. Unseasonably warm air will continue to spread north as a result, setting the stage for some true summer- like weather this Memorial Day.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and addressing the potential for some heating induced showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening.

Details: Biggest story today will be those unseasonably warm conditions. Pattern recognition of ridge/trough placement and at least partly sunny skies (after early morning fog and stratus burn off . hopefully) easily supports guidance suggested temperatures reaching well into the 80s across interior sections of northern lower Michigan, with of course somewhat cooler readings near the big waters and for areas north of the Bridge. Increasingly established pipeline of western Gulf of Mexico moisture will drive dewpoints up into the 60s, definitely making it feel a bit muggy this afternoon. Combination of that heat and humidity helps generate well over 1k joules/kg of mixed layer cape this afternoon . more than enough to help generate deep moist convection. However, as has been the case the last few afternoons, large scale synoptic scale forcing is nearly non-existent, leaving lake breeze generated convergence and subtle upstream convective induced small scale waves to help drive shower/storm initiation. Unlike the last few days, very little in the way of elevated capping noted on guidance derived soundings . so would expect at least a few afternoon showers/storms to develop. Will continue to carry just scattered wording for showers/storms for now, with the greatest potential centered on northwest and north central lower Michigan where both orographic and lake breeze induced low level convergence will be maximized. Very limited and disorganized shear should preclude any organized severe potential, although given amount of instability, cannot completely rule out a rogue severe cell or two . producing low end severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, with precipitable water values near one and a half inches, any storms will produce brief periods of very heavy rainfall. Lack of any expected training of cells should prevent any significant flooding concerns.

Any showers/storms expected to end this evening as diurnally-driven instability is lost. Thinking much of the overnight and most of the area will be dry, although cannot completely rule out a few showers from upstream activity reaching at least northwest parts of the area.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

. Afternoon showers and thunder chances persist .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Synopsis/Forecast: Anomalously strong ridging (+1 to 2 St. Dev) extends up through the Great Lakes on Monday and remains in place through Tuesday and Wednesday. This will continue our abnormally warm and muggy conditions with chances of pop up showers and thunder each afternoon. Meanwhile a cut off low slowly treks through the southern Plains, and by Wednesday a piece of energy rotating around it will move up toward Michigan, potentially enhancing cloud cover late Wednesday.

Details: We remain firmly under the ridge with uniform southwest flow. The morning inversion mixes out quickly thanks to strong late May sun angle and uniform low level winds into the mid teens. Temperatures quickly climb into the 80s again, which will mean a second day in a row with daytime highs a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The airmass remains moist, with PWATs remaining around 1.5" or higher, thus the muggy conditions continue. With around 1500 Joules of CAPE airmass thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon and early evening . weak shear precludes any severe potential, although some beefier updrafts may be able to get going across Ern Upper as some bulk shear values approaching 30 kts skim by to the north. Boundary layer winds over nrn lower look to remain just weak enough for lake breezes to form. But whether or not any Cu field can overcome the weak cap (if it develops) remains to be seen. CAMs certainly have convection firing on lake breezes in the mid afternoon over portions of northern lower. This convection will dwindle as it moves off to the northeast with waning instability in the evening. Heading into Tuesday night dewpoints remain elevated with overnight lows staying the low 60s. Overnight winds may have some trouble fully decoupling, thus am only expecting light patchy fog in low lying areas if any.

Wednesday continues with the same pattern as Tuesday, with the overall state of the atmosphere not changing very much. Plenty of moisture and instability around for a chance of showers and thunder again. However afternoon highs and resultant instability may be a little less thanks to incoming clouds from the weak wave rotating up from the southern cutoff. Late Wednesday night a front approaches from the west, possibly renewing light precip chances late at night.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Heading into Thursday a wave and its attendant surface low moving through Ontario will send a cold front our way. This will moderate temperatures back down into the low to mid 70s for the end of the week. A second in the round of waves rotating through southern Ontario will keep precipitation chances going through Friday. Although lack of confidence in exact timing/coverage will force a broadbrush lower-end pops for this period. Behind this system a Canadian high moves into the Great Lakes, drying things out for next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

Fog/stratus overnight and early Monday APN/PLN.

Fog and stratus originating from Lake Huron is expected to gradually press inland, eventually bringing IFR/LIFR conditions to APN and PLN. Conditions will improve by mid-morning Monday. Sct showers and t-storms are expected Monday afternoon, but primarily inland from the Great Lakes and also inland from all four of our TAF sites.

Continued weak winds. Lake breezes Monday afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

More of the same with sub-advisory winds and waves continuing the next several days, along with very warm temperatures and areas of fog (at times very dense). Periodic chances for showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, will also continue . although widespread rains are not anticipated. Of course, any thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing brief periods of gusty and erratic winds.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ345>347. LM . DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LSZ322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . JZ MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi82 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 49°F 1014.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 49°F 47°F1013.9 hPa49°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi67 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist56°F54°F94%1014.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi67 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist54°F53°F99%1014.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi67 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F95%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE6S4E6E4E5SE3CalmE4CalmNW6W8NW4W9W8W3W4W7CalmCalmE3CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4N3NE3N5NW5W8N3NE3N3NW3CalmCalmSE3SE3S3SE3SE5
2 days agoSE3E3SE3SE3SE4SE3SW3CalmN5NW7NW8NW7NW7NW6N6N6N3W7W5W4CalmW4CalmW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.