Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 9:04PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:32PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1135 Am Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202008052345;;976476 FZUS53 KAPX 051535 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1135 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-052345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 051540 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1140 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1138 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Forecast Update: Early burst of cloud development expected to mix out later this afternoon. This includes areas along the St. Mary's River as low level flow backs more westerly and pushes cloud edge rotating around upper low farther into Ontario. Temperatures warming nicely through the 60s . with many spots getting back above 70 later this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Morning Synopsis: 12z surface/composite analysis shows an expansive surface high across the Midwest/Ohio Valley/upper Great Lakes . centered over Illinois/eastern Missouri (1020mb). 1005mb surface low over western Quebec with a lingering 500mb low/cold pool to the east of Lake Superior and a northwesterly 500mb jet streak across the upper Lakes. Another short wave trough digging southeast across the eastern Dakotas with a PV anomaly extending southward into Iowa/Missouri. Overall isentropic subsidence across Michigan this morning and things are drying out as a result (APX 12z RAOB precipitable water 0.56 inch) though still some deeper moisture over northeast Ontario and just scraping far eastern Lake Superior/eastern Upper. Low level thermal trough still in place across Michigan (APX 12z 850mb temperature +5C) . though warm advection underway on the other side of Lake Michigan. Combination of lake and diurnal cloud cover popping and even a few showers over far northern Lake Huron.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

. Turning the corner toward warmer weather .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep closed upper low is northeast of Lake Superior with an associated trough axis down through Lake Ontario, and a secondary "lobe" of vorticity rotating into eastern Lake Superior. Sprawling surface high pressure is centered across the Midwest, edging into the western Great Lakes with cool low level flow continuing to back more northwesterly in time. Core of coldest air (+4C to +6C H8) is cycling through the northern lakes/ southeastern Ontario region now. There are some lake clouds coming of the lakes and a few blips on radar. But thus far, the lake response has been pretty lackluster owing to larger scale subsidence and dry air that continues to spread into the region.

Further upstream, a compact closed wave and weak surface reflection is sliding southeastward through North Dakota, driving a small batch of showers/storms through that area.

Final lobe of vorticity will rotate down through eastern Lake Superior and across the northern lakes region today, before finally kicking the closed upper low northeastward out of the region tonight. Upstream compact wave migrates southeastward into the lower lakes region by Thursday morning. Not anticipating much with this feature . but it will push some cloud cover through the region through tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None really. Perhaps a few lake induced showers around early this morning.

Details: Still waiting to see if any NW flow lake induced showers can get going off Lakes Superior and Michigan heading into the early morning hours as core of coldest low level air slides across the region. As mentioned, subsidence and dry air is winning the game thus far and that may remain the case. Still, as we know, lake effect finds a way. So, I'm not completely prepared to give up at this point and plan to carry some low end shower chances this morning for parts of the forecast area.

Otherwise, daytime heating will lead to some development/expansion of Cu/StCu across the region this morning and into the afternoon, before ongoing drying/mixing thins out cloud cover as we go through the afternoon. Daytime highs will be a touch warmer today, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Quiet weather tonight. Upstream compact wave in eastern North Dakota this morning will slide down through the lower lakes region tonight. No precipitation anticipated. But there will be some residual cloud cover sliding through the region with this feature. Overnight lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By early Thursday, weakly troughed mid- upper levels will gradually give way to increasing heights through the end of the remainder of the work week into the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure will dominate the lower levels, and when combined with lots of sunshine and a steadily modifying low and mid level airmass, sets the stage for a return to much more summerlike temperatures to round out the week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends.

Little in the way of any significant sensible weather concerns through the forecast period as surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes region (despite the passage of a moisture-starved shortwave during the day Thursday). Aside from diurnally driven cu, lots of sunshine is anticipated both Thursday and Friday aiding to even further warm the already modifying airmass overhead. High temperatures Thursday expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the area before tacking on a couple more degrees for Friday. Thursday night lows in the 50s area-wide.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal, although scattered thunderstorm chances increase this weekend into next week.

Broad upper-level ridging across the desert southwest/Intermountain West late this week gradually shifts eastward toward the midsection of the CONUS into the weekend, leading to another round of above normal temperatures locally. However, as sfc high pressure gradually slides eastward, this will open the door for several disturbances to bring occasionally unsettled weather back into the forecast as early as Saturday night through early next week. Lots of timing/strength/ coverage uncertainties at this point, but safe to say scattered shower/storm chances return during this time frame.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 629 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

. Mostly VFR through tonight .

Enough over lake instability remains for SCT-BKN cloud cover to spread off Lake Michigan this morning, particularly in the Grand Traverse Bay region, and areas south. Mostly VFR cigs, although a few spots south of TVC are reporting high MVFR cigs. With heating, expect an uptick in VFR convective cloud cover across northern Lower Michigan this morning which will thin out this afternoon.

Quiet weather tonight. Another compact short-wave in eastern North Dakota this morning will slide through the southern lakes region overnight through Thursday morning. Minimal weather/aviation impacts, but there will be some cloud cover that also slides through the region with the wave.

MARINE. Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Winds back more westerly today and southwesterly tonight. A touch of gustiness is anticipated on the lakes through the afternoon into early evening and on Lake Michigan tonight. Not enough for any marine headlines however. West to southwesterly flow will then remain in place for the balance of the week. No headlines anticipated.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JPB NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi76 min NW 6 G 8.9 78°F 1019 hPa
45183 38 mi56 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 58°F1 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi62 min WNW 7 G 13 61°F 69°F1016.8 hPa49°F
45175 44 mi37 min N 9.7 G 14 61°F 68°F1018 hPa50°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi61 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F51°F63%1018.6 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi61 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F49°F61%1018.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi61 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F48°F58%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE11NE8N8N10N9
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N10NE6E5NE3NE3NE6NE4NE6NE3NE3E3NE5NE5NE3NE4NE6N10N9
2 days agoNW5NW8NW8N7NW8N12N14
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NE6E7NE5NE5NE6NE5NE6NE4NE4N6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.