Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:17 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 941 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Thursday - .
Overnight - West wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Thursday - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Thursday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 180345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic shower chances through Saturday morning.

- Overall quiet, cooler weather this weekend ahead of more chances for showers early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern synopsis:

An upper trough will drift from the western Lakes region to northeast Ontario tonight and Thursday. At the surface, a warm front extends from a surface low over Wisconsin across southern lower Michigan to Lake Erie. This low will occlude out as a cold front sweeps southern lower Michigan later today and tonight, with the low itself north of the Soo by daylight Thursday.

Forecast Details:

Bands of precipitation pinwheeling around the upper low will continue to bring light rain to the Northwoods through the evening, tapering off overnight. Instability is hard to come by, but storms that find some may produce a flash or two of lightning. There is some potential for gusty winds (apart from background winds) with this convection, but impacts look to remain minimal. After perhaps a short lull in the wee hours, another impulse will bring another round of light rain for most places on Thursday.

Marine headlines will be gradually ratcheted back as the low occludes. Current gale warnings will expire this evening, to be replaced with small craft advisories, that will themselves drop at 06z on the Michigan side and 12z elsewhere. Marine impacts continue at this hour, so future shifts will monitor for potential extension of these headlines.

The wind advisory for land portions of eastern upper will similarly be allowed to expire on schedule at 5pm. Gusts will continue in that area tonight, just not strong enough to reach headline criteria.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A long wave trough will be centered across north central Canada over the next few days. The Great Lakes will be on the southern end of this trough. Weak disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional rain shower chances through Saturday morning.
Progressively colder air will even lead to the possibility of rain mixing in with or changing over to all snow showers late Friday night into Saturday morning as the lakes become activated (lake/850 mb delta ts in the mid teens). Wouldn't be shocked if parts of eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower even received a thin coating of snow. The flow flattens out for much of Sunday into Monday likely bringing a break from the shower chances.
Another trough off of the Pacific will bring back shower chances Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will average slightly below average during the long term with Saturday/Saturday night the coldest period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Deep low pressure center will continue to lift NE into Ontario overnight...then filling as it reaches James Bay on Thursday.
Showers will end overnight as the low center exits our state.
IFR/MVFR conditions will hold on across much of our region...
improving to MVFR/low VFR on Thursday. Chances of showers will again increase by around midday Thursday thru Thursday night as Northern Michigan becomes positioned along the northern edge of deep moisture associated with low pressure moving thru the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Surface winds will become westerly at 10 to 15 kts late tonight into Thursday...
and will then shift to the south under 10 kts Thursday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ346>348.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,