Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:27PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:28 AM EDT (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 349 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the late morning then 20 knots early in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201907171600;;768724 FZUS53 KAPX 170749 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-171600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 170940
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
540 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 318 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
impactful weather: possible return of showers and thunderstorms late
tonight. Severe storms not expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
deep low pressure resided in quebec early this morning, with a cold
front that drapes back through lake huron and somewhere near the m-
55 corridor, into SRN wi mn. Despite some passing higher based
clouds, the air mass has dried behind the front, with pwats down
from 1.00" in eastern upper to around 1.50" in the SRN cwa. Sfc
based dew points were still high, ranging from the lower 60s in
eastern upper, to near 70f south, and latest satellite fog imagery
showing marine stratus across a good portion of lakes michigan and
huron. Outside of some patchy fog, the weather is quiet across nrn
michigan.

The front is likely to press further southward into SRN lower
michigan today, allowing for further air mass drying. This will draw
in drier air through the day, with skies likely going fairly sunny,
with just some few-scattered afternoon cumulus. Winds will be light
e ne, turning to lake breezes this afternoon. Highs are expected to
still be warm with minimal thermal advections behind the front.

Readings will be in the lower 80s in eastern upper NE lower, to the
middle 80s in the gtv bay region.

Shortwave energy ejecting into SRN canada and the plains induces low
pressure to develop and start lifting into ontario and the western
great lakes by late tonight. This will pull the western end of the
frontal zone back NE toward lake michigan and wi as a warm front.

Llj theta-e advection and a decent right entrance region upper
divergence signal, combined with weak dpva and a few hundred j kg
mucape will result in the chance for showers and some possible
thunderstorms to return late tonight toward daybreak across the
western cwa. No severe storms expected. It's more of a timing issue
really, as this forcing and associated deeper moisture does seem to
make it in here for decent chances for convection Thursday (see more
on that below). Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 318 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Chances for showers and thunderstorms...

high impact weather potential... Moderate.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops and the potential for severe storms
Thursday then possibly dangerously high heat indexes Friday.

The upper level ridge centered to our south builds through the
period which is expected to lead to scorching temperatures across
the region. Convective evolution remains uncertain at this time.

Possible upstream convection Thursday may move into the region
during the day or new convection may form with the heating of the
day. Regardless of the cause, heavy rainfall remains possible due to
a stalled out surface boundary across the upper peninsula and
precipitable water values of between 1.5 and 2 inches. In addition,
there is still the potential for damaging wind gusts Thursday with 0-
6 km bulk shear values of between 40 and 50 knots across eastern
upper and far northern lower.

Highs Thursday generally ranging from the lower 80s north to the mid
and upper 80s south. Air temperatures are then expected to reach
into the lower and mid 90s Friday and combine with dewpoints in the
low and mid 70s to likely produce heat indexes of between 100 and
105 degrees. This would be heat advisory territory so try to plan
accordingly and limit outside exposure to the Sun and stay hydrated.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 318 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

More shower and storm chances through this weekend...

high impact weather potential... Low.

The upper level ridge holds through Saturday then heights steadily
drop off Sunday into early next week as a trough moves by to the
north. It's still uncertain if convection will develop or move
through the flow this weekend. The blend has increased pops into the
chance category for now. Drier air is then expected to end the
shower and thunderstorm threat early next week. Temperatures will
remain hot Saturday before backing off Sunday and especially Monday
and Tuesday. Humidity levels will also follow suit and slowly lower
through the period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 538 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
relative high pressure across the NRN great lakes will eject into
quebec late today and tonight, making way for an area of low
pressure to push into ontario. This low pressure will pull a warm
front and tighter pressure gradient into NRN michigan toward
daybreak Thursday, which may lead to a small chance for llws very
late tonight. Outside of maybe some light fog and marine stratus
for the first couple of hours, conditions are expected to beVFR
through the TAF period. Only some departing mid upper level
clouds will be around for a bit this morning, with just some few-
sct cumulus this afternoon. Winds will be light northerly, which
will swing around out of the south late tonight. Afternoon lake
breezes expected today.

Marine
Issued at 318 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
relative high pressure across the NRN great lakes will eject into
quebec late today and tonight, making way for an area of low
pressure to push into ontario. This low pressure will pull a warm
front and tighter pressure gradient through NRN michigan Thursday,
which will provide a small chance for many nearshore waters to
achieve advisory wind speeds, possibly into Thursday night,
especially in lake michigan. In addition, heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Thursday night, with a
marginal risk for some severe storms Thursday into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi28 min Calm G 1.9 65°F 65°F1014.9 hPa (+0.9)65°F
WSLM4 37 mi148 min N 9.9 66°F 64°F1013.1 hPa (-0.4)59°F
45183 38 mi58 min N 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 65°F1014.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi58 min NNE 1 G 1.9 64°F 66°F1014.3 hPa
45175 44 mi29 min S 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 66°F1014 hPa60°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi52 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1014.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair65°F62°F93%1013.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi33 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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W12W9SW8W11W7W8CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE4SW7SE6SE6SE9W5S7S8S5S6N3NW3CalmSW8CalmSE3S6W15
G39
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G14
S6S5
2 days agoCalmCalmW4W6NW5W6NW7W8NW6NW6N4N4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE4SE3SE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.