Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presque Isle Harbor, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 154 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Current radar and satellite depict state wide lake effect snow lingering through the morning hours today, with a notable area of heavy snow over Whitefish point. An upper embedded shortwave is rotating through, which is giving a little enhancement to snow showers. Very cold temperatures have settled in, and per the 00Z KAPX RAOB the DGZ is right off the surface. This has led to smaller flakes, although areas west of I-75 likely have a little more DGZ depth to work with (resulting in better snow flake growth). Generally west winds at the surface (SW in eastern U.P.), with some sites showing gusts up to 20 to 25 mph.
Wind chills of -20 to -3 are seen across northern lower and eastern upper. Cold conditions will linger into the day today as winds back to the SW and remain elevated.

Amplified upper ridging reaching up to the Gulf of AK is hugging the western CONUS coast today, otherwise large and broad upper troughing continues to dominate most of the CONUS and CAN. The upper ridging will start to break down mid week, however influences from this anchored upper troughing will continue through this weekend - keeping cold temperatures and snow in the forecast through much of the period.

Today: A ~1030mb surface high over the central plains will continue SE this morning. This will align the gradient in such a way to shift surface winds to the southwest around midday. By the mid morning hours, most lake effect snow over northern lower (NL) will become light as the upper shortwave exits early this morning.
These lingering lake effect snow showers become orientated SW to NE this afternoon as winds shift. The backing winds will also move the heavy band of snow near Whitefish point off shore to the north by the early afternoon hours. A weak clipper will race down the CAN front range and meet with a baroclinic zone near SD this afternoon. The surface cyclone will trend deeper as it treks east towards the Great Lakes region. Pacific moisture and an embedded upper shortwave will accompany this surface feature, however isentropic upglide will be on the weaker side.
Some FGEN action could be seen while it is west of Lk MI, but once the ~1015 mb surface low reaches the residual low pressure over the warmer lakes (leftovers from the evading colder airmass) it will reorganize.

Advected moisture will help enhance lingering lake effect showers late this evening and tonight, resulting in potentially a couple inches of snow near coastal Lk MI areas including Beaver Island and far SE Chippewa Co.

Wednesday: Light to moderate snowfall becomes widespread over northern lower and parts of eastern upper. Some more ideal jet dynamics land over NL as well as some isentropic lift. Although features remain fairly weak, when joined over MI it will result in widespread 1 - 3 inches of snow over NL falling on Wednesday.
Locally higher amounts will be possible with lake enhancements, either in the typical sense or in mesoscale interaction as lower level wind fields remain relatively weak. Later in the day, another clipper system will race down the CAN plains towards WI. The occluded low will likely interact/merge with a lake low over Lk Superior. With multiple surface features interacting around the warmer lakes, later Wednesday could result in some localized heavy snow for some which would lead to higher accumulations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 154 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

The pattern should remain somewhat progressive, as an upper level shortwave and cold front behind the last clipper will work move a reorganized surface low out of the Great Lakes region on Thursday.
Widespread light to moderate snow will likely continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday, with areas of heavy snow continuing to result from lake interactions and mesoscale features.
At this time, snow will trend more west wind lake effect driven later Thursday as colder temperatures aloft move back in as well with the exiting cyclone.

Thursday night into Friday, another weak clipper will move across MN towards the U.P. This, and the approaching upper closed low descending southward towards MI, will work to enhance lake effect snow for early Friday. This very deep closed low descending southward will allow a almost 1050mb surface high to slide down the plains Friday. Lake effect snow/clouds will hug the coastal areas, with skies likely clearing for interior locations. Very cold temperatures are expect, with 60% chances that higher terrain spots of NL remain below 0F all day Friday. If the surface high can track over MI (with ensembles favor at this point) calm winds, clear skies, snow pack, and a cold dense airmass will all allow for typical cold spots to tank Friday night into early Saturday. Although this will likely be the peak of the cold, the airmass will take its time to evade..
meaning single digit high temperatures for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1129 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Lake effect snow showers continue thru the night for most sites, esp mbL/TVC, where MVFR/IFR prevail, even thru the afternoon. Lesser confidence in PLN, APN where cigs/visbys could bounce between VFR/MVFR and IFR if a band scrapes, esp at PLN. Problem child CIU could end up on the edge or under a strong snow band at times thru 12-13z, which could drop conditions to LIFR in a hurry, though worst conditions still likely stay closer to ANJ. Lake effect continues into 18-21z, with some improvements possible at all sites thru the day...but next system approaches from SW for 0-3z and beyond. Winds wiggle between WNW/WSW 5-15kts thru 12-15z, closer to 20kts at mbL/TVC, becoming prevailing W/SW after 15z at 10-15kts...with gusts still 25-35kts at times thru the day.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016- 020>022-025>027-031>033-086-099.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ017- 018-023-028-029-087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ346>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ341.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.