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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 945 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Overnight..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots. Areas of fog through the night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..South wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain likely. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 080445 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 959 EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Low pressure continues to develop over the Northern Plains late this evening...with the associated warm front extending from the low thru Southern Minnesota and NE Iowa into Illinois and Indiana
Closer to home
skies have temporarily cleared across most of our CWA...with the exception of some low clouds lingering along the St. Marys River area and our Lake Huron shorelines. Some mid and high clouds are starting to increase from the SW well northeast of the warm front
Also
some patchy light fog has begun to develop as advertised. Still expect a gradual increase in low clouds overnight and into Friday as low level moisture increases along and north of the approaching warm front. Temps will stay nearly steady in the upper 20s and lower 30s overnight as cloudy cover increases and southerly flow/WAA begins to strengthen.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Unseasonably Mild Tonight...

High Impact Weather...Fog possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover, fog potential and low temperatures.

Northern Michigan is in kind of left in a void in between high pressure across the deep Southeast and low pressure across the northwest Plains. Low clouds across much of the region earlier this morning continue to slowly erode from the southwest. Lessening cloud trend is expected to continue into this evening allowing temperatures to drop off toward freezing. Low levels are fairly moist with surface dewpoints in the low and mid 30s so with continued light winds this evening would not be surprised if some fog forms. The surface pressure gradient begins to tighten up tonight with surface winds starting to pick up some. So any form that does form may try to break up overnight. In addition, guidance does reform lower clouds late tonight as well. So overall expect areas of fog and increasing cloudiness with mild temperatures and increasing southeasterly winds.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Some lake effect/enhanced snow possible with a return of colder temperatures for the second half of the weekend.

Pattern Forecast: By Friday morning, amplified mid-upper level ridge axis is expected to be situated over the Great Lakes region. Several embedded disturbances upstream across the Plains within broader longwave troughing. Low pressure already in place near the ND/MN border at the start of the period will trek off to the northeast towards Hudson Bay by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, secondary area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southern Plains, tracking northeast towards the upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes.
While rain chances will dominate Saturday, as this system treks off to our north, cooler air with some snow chances are expected to return for the second half of the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday. Cooler Saturday night - Sunday with some snow possible across parts of northern MI.

Initial story to wrap up the week will be well above normal temperatures as a warm front attendant to low pressure over ND/MN continues to propel north across the forecast area. Skies largely remain mostly cloudy with perhaps a sprinkle in the eastern U.P.
Otherwise, a dry day looks to be on tap with high temperatures spanning from the mid-40s to low 50s across northern lower (just a touch cooler north).

Attention quickly turns to an approaching wave Friday night into Saturday. As low pressure nears southern Lake Michigan, lingering low-level dry air will slowly be eroded with shower chances arriving as early as late Friday night in southern portions of the CWA. Those chances continue to expand area-wide on Saturday and while latest trends support the highest swath of QPF remaining to our west over eastern WI/central U.P. and northern Lake Michigan, a grungy/cloudy/ showery day will largely be the rule. Still mild with highs spanning the mid-40s to low 50s area-wide.

Showers largely diminish through Saturday afternoon, with a passing cold front bringing the arrival of much cooler air. Temperatures expected to fall into the 30s Saturday evening and below freezing overnight. While some uncertainty exists on just how fast surface temperatures fall, it'll be at least worth monitoring the potential for a flash freeze where wet roads linger from prior rainfall/snow melt. Some lake effect/enhanced snow possible Sunday, although with little confidence, as cooler air and perhaps some lingering synoptic support builds across the northern Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Mid-level trough axis expected to be crossing the area Sunday night giving way to shortwave ridging to kick off early next week. Another northern stream wave punches toward the northern Lakes by Monday night - Tuesday before some signals that longwave ridging at least briefly returns toward the end of the forecast period.

Overall, not a lot in the way of potential high impact weather through the long term, but certainly some nuisance precip chances remain. Lake-aided snow showers possible Sunday night/early Monday, although with continued low confidence on coverage. Low pressure passing to our north late Monday night - Tuesday is expected to send a cold front across the region through that time frame, perhaps providing enough support to kick off some snow showers. Confidence diminishes late week, although latest ensemble trends favor another period with above to well-above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Upper level ridge axis will build northeastward into the Great Lakes region overnight...with a warm front following close behind for Friday. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with cigs at or falling to MVFR
Some patchy fog is also possible tonight
dropping vsby to MVFR/IFR in spots. There is a small chance of rain showers on Friday across portions of Eastern Upper Michigan...but the chance is too small to include in the CIU TAF for now. Surface winds will remain from the SE under 10 kts overnight and then become south and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.

MARINE
Light southwest winds shift into the southeast later tonight while increasing. Small craft advisory gusts are likely Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LSZ321-322.

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