Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presque Isle Harbor, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing currently over the northern Great Lakes will vacate along the St. Lawrence River today. Meanwhile, ridging on the backside of the departing wave will slide overhead this evening and tonight.
Subsidence aloft between these two features will build relatively high pressure across the Great Lakes today ahead of a second wave punching overhead late tonight into Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Tapering lake effect today, additional snow for the U.P. tonight -- Lake effect snow showers across northern lower and eastern upper will continue to wind down across much of the area this morning into this afternoon. Light winds becoming southwest with time today will refocus any ongoing lake convection across the Tip of the Mitt downwind of Little Traverse Bay and across portions of the eastern U.P. Only light amounts around 1" or less are anticipated across these areas during daylight hours. Much better chances for accumulating snow will return later this evening and tonight with a potential lake enhanced band ahead of the next approaching system.
Said lake enhanced band looks to set up across portions of central Mackinac county and nose into portions of Chippewa county. Latest guidance offers a range of solutions, and relatively low confidence currently exists in how intense/long-lasting this potential band will be. Current forecast has highest totals in the 4-6" range, but it is emphasized that localized higher amounts under this band could be around 8" or more if it sets up over one area for a several hour period. Forecast soundings display around 4kft of the saturated low- level profile extending through the DGZ, which should make for efficient snowfall with ratios around 20:1 or even higher. This band would be particularly impactful to the US-2 corridor along southern Mackinac county, where quick accumulations on roads and rapid drops in visibility would result in hazardous travel conditions. Have elected to hold of on a Winter Weather Advisory at this time to allow for increased confidence in potential snowfall amounts and location of heaviest snowfall later tonight into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 341 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Periodic short waves moving through the flow are expected to bring rounds of lake effect snow showers as well as shots of colder air to the region all the way into the middle of next week. The first wave moves through on Saturday with westerly flow veering into the northwest. Most spots look to receive under a couple of inches of snow accumulation but can't rule out localized higher amounts. Snow showers are expected to diminish Sunday as the flow temporarily becomes nearly zonal. More short waves dropping down from the north then help reinforce snow shower activity (as well as the cold air)
during the first half of next week. The continual backing and veering flow regimes should limit any big time snow events from occurring. This is not to say that there won't be any impactful weather over the coming days. Gusty winds are expected Sunday night into Monday night which could lead to blowing and drifting snow issues.

Uncertainty over the amount and timing of milder air then creeps into the forecast as we head into the later portions of next week.
Milder temperatures are expected but exactly how mild and for how long remain uncertainties with extended guidance varying on the details. Of course, winter enthusiasts don't want anything too extreme but we will have to wait to see how it all plays out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

NW flow lake effect snow showers will continue to stream into our snowbelt areas overnight before winds begin to back on Friday ahead of our next low pressure system. Prevailing conditions will be MVFR/low VFR...dropping to IFR within heavier snow shower activity. Diminishing NW surface winds will becoming light/variable overnight. Winds will then shift to the S/SW at around 10 kts on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.