Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
|Sunrise 7:18AM||Sunset 6:17PM||Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC)||Moonrise 7:02PM||Moonset 8:54AM||Illumination 89%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbtv 162101|
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
501 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move into northern
new york this evening and into vermont later tonight. The
heaviest rainfall is expected overnight tonight into Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts between 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with
localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible for the higher
terrain of the adirondacks and southern green mountains. Gusty
easterly winds will be likely for the southern green mountains
tonight with strong northerly winds expected for the champlain
valley tomorrow. The combination of the heavy rain and strong
winds may lead to isolated power outages. Conditions begin to
improve by Friday morning with a period of drier and calmer
weather expected for the weekend. The next chance for rainfall
comes with another strong front on Tuesday.
Near term through Thursday night
As of 500 pm edt Wednesday... Overall, forecast remains on track
for a significant system to affect the north country beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning. At the moment, the
system is currently undergoing the transference of energy from
the dominant low over the great lakes to its coastal counter
part. (at the moment this secondary low is currently located
over the DELMARVA peninsula, however over the next several hours
this low will undergo bomb cyclogenesis and become an
impressive low pressure center just offshore of the jersey
coastline. Strong upper-level diffluence can be see in the ir
imagery with impressive upper level striation in the cirrus
cloud shield. Fun fact: nashville set an upper air record today
with a record strong 250mb observed wind of 145 kt during the
month of october. Obviously, this proves that this is in an
impressive storm that we are dealing with, which leads me to a
few updates that we have had with this afternoon package.
First off, the 12z guidance has trended this system a little
more powerful and little bit further west with the center of
low, now bringing a sub 980 mb low across western ma, into new
hampshire and eventually retrograding west across central vt.
This has a couple implications for the forecast. With the center
of the low closer to the north country, the dynamics associated
with this system are impressive... Therefore while pwats are not
off the chart, lift associated with mesoscale banding and
synoptic lift will bring moderate rainfall, to potentially
heavy at times, to the north country. The two areas of greatest
concern for heavy rainfall and therefore isolated flooding
potential are for southern vt and the adirondack mountains of
new york. Generally, QPF amounts are between 1.5-2.5", with
localized amounts upwards of 3.0". Therefore, we have gone ahead
and issued a flood watch for most of the area except the st
lawrence valley, northeast kingdom of vermont and grand isle
counties, where rainfall amounts are less than the 6hr ffg. At
this time, we're not expecting widespread flooding, however
urban and localized flooding due to clogged storms drains may
certainly be possible. In addition, expect sharp rises on area
streams and creeks, with a few area rivers including east branch
of the ausable and otter creek at center rutland reaching minor
Secondly, the strengthening pressure gradient associated with
the impressive pressure drop with this system will bring the
threat for localized gusty winds to the area. There will be two
different wind threats with this system, including easterly
downsloping winds and northerly channeled flow for the champlain
valley. Two wind advisories have been issued for these hazards.
Beginning around 02z, the threat increases for localized
downsloping winds for the spine of the green mountains tonight,
where gusts up to 50 mph may be possible along the immediate
western slopes. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
amount of mixing potential and how far these winds are able to
propagate away from the mountain slopes. 12z soundings indicate
that a stable layer will develop for locations such as rutland,
and jericho as precipitation coincides with strongest jet core,
however with 850mb jet across southern vt upwards of 60 kt and
925 mb around 40 kt, east winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph
may be possible for locations just west of the green mountains.
Isolated power outages may be possible with winds of these
magnitudes, especially for locations with leaves on trees. As
the center of the low begins to pull off the northeast, 40-45kt
925mb jet sets up along the champlain valley with winds between
25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible along the the
immediate lake shoreline. Winds will begin to abate Thursday
night but still remain breezy our of the north northwest around
10-15 kt. With such a mature and wrapped up cyclone, good mid-
level moisture remains over the north country with
northwesterly winds overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This
will lead to additional precipitation accumulations on upslope
flow for the higher terrain for the northern greens and
Short term Friday
As of 446 pm edt Wednesday... Wrap around showers will be ongoing
Friday morning as we remain under northwest flow. Temperatures will
likely be cold enough in the morning for a bit of snow in the higher
elevations. Things will gradually wind down through the day as the
low pulls away, taking the best moisture with it. It'll be a brisk
day with northwest winds in the 10-20 mph range. Temperatures will
remain below normal, topping out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Any
lingering precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and
clouds will dissipate as drier air works into the region. Continuing
cold air advection will make for a chilly night, with lows in the
upper 20s to upper 30s.|
Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 446 pm edt Wednesday... High pressure will build in for the
weekend, leading to fair weather. The ridge breaks down somewhat on
Sunday with a weak shortwave trough and surface front passing
through, but given meager forcing and limited moisture, don't expect
much other than increased clouds. The ridge is reestablished for
Monday, but all eyes are watching another potent system for Tuesday.
A deepening low will lift to our north and east, with a strong sw
jet ushering deep moisture into the region out ahead of it. This
looks like another potential heavy rain event with 1-2 inch totals
possible. It could be quite windy as well, particularly in those
spots that are susceptible to downsloping from southeast winds.
There will be a warming trend through the long term; temperatures
will be near seasonal normal for the weekend, then warming as we
head into the middle of next week.
Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Through 18z Thursday... CurrentlyVFR at all terminals with bkn ovc
skies between 5-10k ft. Southeasterly winds are beginning to
pick up across the area with sustained winds between 10-15 kt,
with gusts upwards of 20-25 kt, with localized gusts up to 30
kt, especially at krut through 05z tonight. After 06z, winds
will shift out of the north northeast at 10 to 15 kt. Gusts
will increase towards 12z, especially for the champlain valley
where a strong 40-50 kt 925mb jet sets up... Gusts for kbtv &
pbg could be upwards of 35 knots. Elsewhere, expecting gusts in
the 20-25 kt range. Rain moves in from west to east around 21z
to 00z. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will begin to impact
all terminals at 03-06z through the remainder of the TAF period
with visibilities between 3-4 miles. Ceilings will deteriorate
overnight tonight, dropping to MVFR after 00z areawide, with ifr
ceilings expected between 05-10z.
Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra.
Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. No sig wx.
Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.
Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.
Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Monday:VFR. Slight chance shra.
A flood watch has been issued for all locations across the north
country except for the st lawrence valley, northeast kingdom of
vermont and grand isle county. The potential exists for urban
and small stream flooding tonight throughout Thursday as
moderate to heavy rainfall will move through the north country.
Guidance continues to indicate that a few locations including
but not limited to ausable forks and center rutland could
approach or exceed minor flood stage. Rainfall totals through
Thursday night will range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches with upslope
locations of the adirondacks and southern green mountains could
see 3+ inches. Flashier rivers and streams will respond quickly
to this rainfall but should largely remain within bankful with
additional sharp rises on central vermont rivers including the
mad at moretown and essex junction on the winooski. Localized
flooding may be likely too urban area including clogged storm
drains to due fallen leaf debris.
Winds are expected to remain gusty out of the south between
15-25 knots with seas building upwards to 4 ft. A brief lull in
the winds are expected this evening as winds begin to shift to
the north. Winds will increase rapidly again Thursday morning
with winds of 25-35 knots expected along lake champlain with
higher gusty up to 40 knots possible. Seas will build to 4-6 ft
with some 7 ft waves in the broad sections of the lake. Winds
will slowly ramp down Thursday night and Friday but will likely
remain around 25 knots until Friday night.
Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through Friday morning
Wind advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for vtz001-002-
Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 5 am edt Thursday for
Ny... Flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through Friday morning
Wind advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for nyz028-035.
near term... Larocca
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY||49 mi||56 min||56°F||60°F||1000.3 hPa|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY||59 mi||57 min||ESE 5||10.00 mi||Light Rain||57°F||48°F||74%||1002.1 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMSS
Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||S||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||Calm||SW||SW||Calm||Calm||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW|
|2 days ago||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||W|
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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