Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:17PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Ogdensburg To Saint Regis- 125 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
This afternoon..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers likely late.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Rain.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 162101
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
501 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move into northern
new york this evening and into vermont later tonight. The
heaviest rainfall is expected overnight tonight into Thursday
morning. Rainfall amounts between 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with
localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible for the higher
terrain of the adirondacks and southern green mountains. Gusty
easterly winds will be likely for the southern green mountains
tonight with strong northerly winds expected for the champlain
valley tomorrow. The combination of the heavy rain and strong
winds may lead to isolated power outages. Conditions begin to
improve by Friday morning with a period of drier and calmer
weather expected for the weekend. The next chance for rainfall
comes with another strong front on Tuesday.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 500 pm edt Wednesday... Overall, forecast remains on track
for a significant system to affect the north country beginning
tonight and lasting through Friday morning. At the moment, the
system is currently undergoing the transference of energy from
the dominant low over the great lakes to its coastal counter
part. (at the moment this secondary low is currently located
over the DELMARVA peninsula, however over the next several hours
this low will undergo bomb cyclogenesis and become an
impressive low pressure center just offshore of the jersey
coastline. Strong upper-level diffluence can be see in the ir
imagery with impressive upper level striation in the cirrus
cloud shield. Fun fact: nashville set an upper air record today
with a record strong 250mb observed wind of 145 kt during the
month of october. Obviously, this proves that this is in an
impressive storm that we are dealing with, which leads me to a
few updates that we have had with this afternoon package.

First off, the 12z guidance has trended this system a little
more powerful and little bit further west with the center of
low, now bringing a sub 980 mb low across western ma, into new
hampshire and eventually retrograding west across central vt.

This has a couple implications for the forecast. With the center
of the low closer to the north country, the dynamics associated
with this system are impressive... Therefore while pwats are not
off the chart, lift associated with mesoscale banding and
synoptic lift will bring moderate rainfall, to potentially
heavy at times, to the north country. The two areas of greatest
concern for heavy rainfall and therefore isolated flooding
potential are for southern vt and the adirondack mountains of
new york. Generally, QPF amounts are between 1.5-2.5", with
localized amounts upwards of 3.0". Therefore, we have gone ahead
and issued a flood watch for most of the area except the st
lawrence valley, northeast kingdom of vermont and grand isle
counties, where rainfall amounts are less than the 6hr ffg. At
this time, we're not expecting widespread flooding, however
urban and localized flooding due to clogged storms drains may
certainly be possible. In addition, expect sharp rises on area
streams and creeks, with a few area rivers including east branch
of the ausable and otter creek at center rutland reaching minor
flooding stage.

Secondly, the strengthening pressure gradient associated with
the impressive pressure drop with this system will bring the
threat for localized gusty winds to the area. There will be two
different wind threats with this system, including easterly
downsloping winds and northerly channeled flow for the champlain
valley. Two wind advisories have been issued for these hazards.

Beginning around 02z, the threat increases for localized
downsloping winds for the spine of the green mountains tonight,
where gusts up to 50 mph may be possible along the immediate
western slopes. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
amount of mixing potential and how far these winds are able to
propagate away from the mountain slopes. 12z soundings indicate
that a stable layer will develop for locations such as rutland,
and jericho as precipitation coincides with strongest jet core,
however with 850mb jet across southern vt upwards of 60 kt and
925 mb around 40 kt, east winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph
may be possible for locations just west of the green mountains.

Isolated power outages may be possible with winds of these
magnitudes, especially for locations with leaves on trees. As
the center of the low begins to pull off the northeast, 40-45kt
925mb jet sets up along the champlain valley with winds between
25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible along the the
immediate lake shoreline. Winds will begin to abate Thursday
night but still remain breezy our of the north northwest around
10-15 kt. With such a mature and wrapped up cyclone, good mid-
level moisture remains over the north country with
northwesterly winds overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This
will lead to additional precipitation accumulations on upslope
flow for the higher terrain for the northern greens and
adirondacks.

Short term Friday
As of 446 pm edt Wednesday... Wrap around showers will be ongoing
Friday morning as we remain under northwest flow. Temperatures will
likely be cold enough in the morning for a bit of snow in the higher
elevations. Things will gradually wind down through the day as the
low pulls away, taking the best moisture with it. It'll be a brisk
day with northwest winds in the 10-20 mph range. Temperatures will
remain below normal, topping out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Any
lingering precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and
clouds will dissipate as drier air works into the region. Continuing
cold air advection will make for a chilly night, with lows in the
upper 20s to upper 30s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 446 pm edt Wednesday... High pressure will build in for the
weekend, leading to fair weather. The ridge breaks down somewhat on
Sunday with a weak shortwave trough and surface front passing
through, but given meager forcing and limited moisture, don't expect
much other than increased clouds. The ridge is reestablished for
Monday, but all eyes are watching another potent system for Tuesday.

A deepening low will lift to our north and east, with a strong sw
jet ushering deep moisture into the region out ahead of it. This
looks like another potential heavy rain event with 1-2 inch totals
possible. It could be quite windy as well, particularly in those
spots that are susceptible to downsloping from southeast winds.

There will be a warming trend through the long term; temperatures
will be near seasonal normal for the weekend, then warming as we
head into the middle of next week.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Through 18z Thursday... CurrentlyVFR at all terminals with bkn ovc
skies between 5-10k ft. Southeasterly winds are beginning to
pick up across the area with sustained winds between 10-15 kt,
with gusts upwards of 20-25 kt, with localized gusts up to 30
kt, especially at krut through 05z tonight. After 06z, winds
will shift out of the north northeast at 10 to 15 kt. Gusts
will increase towards 12z, especially for the champlain valley
where a strong 40-50 kt 925mb jet sets up... Gusts for kbtv &
pbg could be upwards of 35 knots. Elsewhere, expecting gusts in
the 20-25 kt range. Rain moves in from west to east around 21z
to 00z. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will begin to impact
all terminals at 03-06z through the remainder of the TAF period
with visibilities between 3-4 miles. Ceilings will deteriorate
overnight tonight, dropping to MVFR after 00z areawide, with ifr
ceilings expected between 05-10z.

Outlook...

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Hydrology
A flood watch has been issued for all locations across the north
country except for the st lawrence valley, northeast kingdom of
vermont and grand isle county. The potential exists for urban
and small stream flooding tonight throughout Thursday as
moderate to heavy rainfall will move through the north country.

Guidance continues to indicate that a few locations including
but not limited to ausable forks and center rutland could
approach or exceed minor flood stage. Rainfall totals through
Thursday night will range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches with upslope
locations of the adirondacks and southern green mountains could
see 3+ inches. Flashier rivers and streams will respond quickly
to this rainfall but should largely remain within bankful with
additional sharp rises on central vermont rivers including the
mad at moretown and essex junction on the winooski. Localized
flooding may be likely too urban area including clogged storm
drains to due fallen leaf debris.

Marine
Winds are expected to remain gusty out of the south between
15-25 knots with seas building upwards to 4 ft. A brief lull in
the winds are expected this evening as winds begin to shift to
the north. Winds will increase rapidly again Thursday morning
with winds of 25-35 knots expected along lake champlain with
higher gusty up to 40 knots possible. Seas will build to 4-6 ft
with some 7 ft waves in the broad sections of the lake. Winds
will slowly ramp down Thursday night and Friday but will likely
remain around 25 knots until Friday night.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through Friday morning
for vtz002-005-006-008>012-016>019.

Wind advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for vtz001-002-
005-009.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 5 am edt Thursday for
vtz017>019.

Ny... Flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through Friday morning
for nyz028>031-034-035.

Wind advisory from 6 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Larocca
near term... Larocca
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
aviation... Larocca
hydrology... Clay
marine... Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi56 min 56°F 60°F1000.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi57 minESE 510.00 miLight Rain57°F48°F74%1002.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE5NE7E7E7NE7NE6E7E6SE14
G25
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G16
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1 day agoS5S5S4SW6SW7SW5SW3CalmSW5SW3CalmCalmS3SW5SW6SW7SW9W7SW56
G15
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW10SW6W7SW6W11
G19
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G25
SW13
G22
SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.