Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:33AM||Sunset 4:21PM||Saturday December 14, 2019 11:58 AM EST (16:58 UTC)||Moonrise 6:53PM||Moonset 9:49AM||Illumination 91%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 141455 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 955 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019
SYNOPSIS. Occasional rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers with patches of fog likely as developing low pressure approaches the region. Tonight rain will change to snow showers with snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches likely from northern New York into parts of northern Vermont by Sunday afternoon. After a relatively mild Saturday, temperatures will return to normal on Sunday, along with gusty westerly winds. After a brief break on Monday, more wintry weather returns for Monday night into Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 955 AM EST Saturday . Lowered coverage of showers across most of the area through late afternoon in modified dry slot per latest observational trends. Also dropped 18-00Z QPF back somewhat per this adjustment. Rest of forecast remains on track. Have a great day.
Excerpts from prior discussion . Winter weather advisory has been issued for 3 to 5 inches of snow from 03z to 18z Sunday for the northern Adirondacks in New York.
Overall fcst remains on track with just minor tweaks to fine tune details as event is unfolding across our fa today into Sunday. Still anticipating an active period of weather with several mainly minor impacts anticipated, these includes period of moderate rainfall this morning, rain changing to accumulating mtn snow tonight, and gusty westerly winds on Sunday.
Water vapor shows an impressive feed of deep moisture ahead of developing negatively tilted mid/upper level trof acrs the eastern Conus. Well defined baroclinic leaf is evident on imagery too, indicating favorable jet dynamics and maturing cyclone. Unfortunately, this is a warm core system resulting in rainfall across our cwa on the front side associated with the warm moist conveyor. Sfc analysis places 1003mb low pres near Ocean City MD, with general movement toward the north today. This will help advect deep Atlantic moisture on easterly 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45 knots into our central/eastern cwa this morning, with a period of moderate rainfall expected. A few breaking mtn waves may occur and produce very localized wind gusts up to 45 mph or so this morning along the western slopes from near Danby to Mendon to Bread Loaf to near Underhill btwn now and 12z. Have noted an isolated gust to 48 mph at Danby.
Meanwhile, have sharpen up the qpf field, utilizing the latest RAP/HRRR and High Res data, which indicates rainfall ranging from near 0.10 northern NY to 1.50" southern Greens in the favorable upslope areas. Band of favorable fgen forcing and associated deeper lift/moisture will angle northeast of fa by noon today, with well defined mid/upper lvl dry slot anticipated. This will result in decreasing areal coverage of precip, with more showery/drizzle likely, as abundant llvl moisture remains. Also, anticipate a window of lighter winds as sfc low pres tracks directly overhead, combined with saturated bl conditions will probably produce some areas of fog today. Temps mainly in the 40s areawide today.
As system transitions from rainfall associated with warm moist conveyor into backside deformation/upslope, a brief break in the areal coverage of precip is anticipated midday. Additional precip will redevelop by 21z over northern NY, associated with favorable backside deformation, good ribbon of mid level moisture and developing westerly upslope flow. Additional qpf will be heaviest acrs the SLV/northern dacks btwn 21-06z, but shifting into VT by early Sunday Morning.
As sfc low pres continues to deepen sub 980mb by 06z Sunday, a distinct wind shift occurs and a sharp cold front sweeps acrs our cwa btwn 00z-09z on Sunday. This will result in moderate caa on developing westerly winds, with 850mb 0c acrs the northern dacks by 03z and thru our VT zones by 06z, while the 925mb 0c contour is 3 hours slower. This will result in snow levels at summit level btwn 00-03z northern dacks and 03 to 06z central/northern greens, dropping to 1500 feet by 06z dacks and 09z for Greens, before reaching the valley floors by 12z Sunday. The best backside deformation lift/moisture will be slv/western dacks into the mtns of northern/central VT. Thinking snowfall will be 3 to 5 inches northern dacks with isolated amounts of 6 inches, meanwhile 2 to 4 inches is likely slv. For the northern/central Greens thinking generally 1 to 3 inches with summits from Mansfield to Jay receiving 2 to 5 inches by Sunday aftn. Strong westerly and unblocked flow will limit snowfall acrs the cpv, maybe a dusting to half inch.
Sunday will be a blustery day with temps returning to normal. A wind advisory maybe need for the downslope regions of the eastern dacks and parts of the eastern slopes of the green mtns in central/eastern VT. Soundings show very good mixing with steepening sfc to 850mb lapse rates under moderate caa. This mixing, combined with developing inversion above ridgetop will help to enhance downslope winds with localized gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range possible. Strong winds and unblocked flow will transport scattered snow showers downwind of the mountains on Sunday. Temps holding steady or falling from the 30s into 20s most areas.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 339 AM EST Saturday . Quiet forecast for Monday with mostly dry conditions and abating winds as high pressure moves overhead. A bit chilly to start the day with lows in the single upper single digits to mid teens for much of the region. We should start the day mostly clear, but high clouds should begin to filter into the region late morning to early afternoon. Expect highs in the 20s. Towards the end of Monday, snow will begin to filter north into south-central Vermont and the Adirondacks ahead of a weak surface low moving northeast from the Ohio River Valley.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 339 AM EST Saturday . Deterministic and ensemble guidance is continuing to converge with regard to solutions for the Tuesday snow event. Run-to-run consistency has also improved, so confidence is increasing on a light snow event for the North Country. Though the flow is not highly amplified and remains progressive, weak low pressure should develop ahead of an elongated vort max in a favorable right jet entrance region. Latest forecasts indicate a modest FGEN/deformation band to the north of the feature associated with the mid-level low. Additionally, good SEPV and cross-isobaric flow at the 280K isentrope suggest a weakly stable environment and additional support for ascent respectively. The mid-level low will track right along the Adirondacks, and as GFS forecast soundings indicate, this will allow a bit of a warm nose to creep in, so there is the potential for some sleet to mix north into south-central Vermont. The event should wrap by Tuesday night. Initial estimates look to favor 2"-4" with locally higher amounts up to 5" across south-central Vermont and the Adirondacks with a 0.5"-2.5" across the remainder of the region.
Wednesday will begin mostly dry with seasonable conditions. This will be interrupted by a strong polar front with a quick moving clipper system. Latest GFS forecast suggests the dynamical tropopause will descend to 600mb as upper low descends upon the North Country. As a result, it's not surprising that the model outputs pronounced reflection down to the surface. It is still about 5 days out, but the model signals are impressive for enhanced snow showers, though the lapse rates/instability is not quite there in the model runs yet. It will be something to watch. Bitter, windy cold behind the system expected with well below normal temperatures.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 06Z Sunday . A challenging and changeable next 12 to 24 hours across our aviation sites, with a wide range of flight categories. Obs indicating vfr at slk/rut and btv, while lifr prevails at pbg/mpv and mss. Have utilized mainly a persistence fcst for the first 6 hours with ifr/lifr cigs and intervals of ifr vis at pbg/mpv and mss, while slk should trend toward ifr conditions by 14z. In addition, soundings show shallow bl moisture increasing at BTV, so thinking some periods of ifr vis/cigs possible by 15z, especially as light northerly flow develops. Meanwhile, brisk 925mb to 850mb winds from the southeast should keep rut in the mvfr/vfr range during the next 6 to 12 hours with some localized gusts to 25 knots possible. As sfc low pres tracks directly overhead, a well defined dry slot will limit areal coverage of precip late develops this morning/early aftn, with lighter wind profiles, but plenty of lvl moisture may result in widespread ifr/lifr conditions at most sites. As sfc low tracks to our northeast by this evening, winds shift to the west and increase, with any rain changing to snow, especially at slk with ifr vis/cigs likely. As winds shift to the west, pbg/btv/rut should see increasing flight conditions.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
HYDROLOGY. Storm total rainfall through Sunday will range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches, with the heaviest amounts generally along and south of I-89 across eastern and southern VT. Some of this precipitation will fall in the form of snow, especially across the Saint Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks. Given saturated soils from recent wet spell, some mainly in bank rises are expected. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland may approach minor flood stage at crest Saturday night. There is a lower chance of action stage being reached on the Mad Rivers. We will continue to monitor, but the flood threat appears marginal at this time.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ029>031.
SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . JMG/Taber SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Taber HYDROLOGY . Taber/Banacos
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY||49 mi||64 min||38°F||996.7 hPa|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY||59 mi||65 min||NE 12||8.00 mi||Overcast||38°F||36°F||93%||998.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMSS
Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SW||SW||S||S||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||E||NE||NE||E||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S|
|2 days ago||S||SW||SW||SW||SW|
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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