Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waddington, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 743 AM EDT Monday...No changes needed. Matched observations for temperature and dew point to start the day, but blending into mid morning things look on target.

Previous Discussion...
A relatively weak system, as seen in modest deep moisture in water vapor imagery and associated thunderstorm activity this morning along a cold front, is wrapping into an occluding low pressure system over the western Great Lakes. It will bring widespread showers to our region late this afternoon into the first part of the night following a cool and dry start to the day. Moderately strong deep layer moisture transport out ahead of the main belt of showers will run into a dry low layer across the region this afternoon such this precipitation probably will be very hit or miss initially. Then between about 8 PM and 1 AM rain will move through the region from west to east with perhaps 2 to 4 hours of moderate rainfall at most locations.
Widespread rainfall amounts of about 0.15" to 0.33" can be expected. Mean MUCAPE amidst HRRR CAMs tapers to under 100 J/kg as showers move across northern New York, so continue to think showers will not produce thunder.

Once we move into Tuesday morning, the rest of the period looks largely dry as a mid-level dry slot south of the occluding low punches across New York and New England. That being said, high resolution models suggest shallower moisture could get squeezed out on the windward side of terrain with development of light showers. This precipitation would be most likely in the midday hours and over northern Vermont associated with westerly upslope flow as lapse rates increase amidst some modest cold air advection. Think current PoPs may be a bit low relative to this potential, but no substantial rainfall is expected.

What will be substantial is a west to east temperature gradient.
Based on the track of the occluded low, there is good agreement cooler air will filter into northern New York, but there is a moderately large range in possible high temperatures generally in Vermont. Some of the cooler model guidance, namely the raw NAM, FV3, and SREF, show much cooler 850 millibar temperatures and cloud cover that lingers through day. Think that if there is more sunshine and temperatures aloft somewhere closer to the GFS, the deep mixing will allow temperatures to reach forecasted values in the low to mid 60s, but potential for highs several degrees lower exists. Meanwhile, temperatures in the Adirondacks westward should be steady in the upper 40s to near 50, or 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 311 AM EDT Monday...A period of dry weather is expected for mid week as ridging builds over the area. There's a slight chance of some sprinkles or perhaps even flurries in northern areas Tuesday night as low pressure pulls away, but otherwise precipitation chances are less than 10 percent through Thursday night. Overall temperatures will average above normal; Wednesday will see highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and Thursday will be about 5 degrees warmer. Overnights will be in the 30s to low 40s, though we'll start to see warmer conditions by Thursday night as flow starts to turn to the south and moisture starts to increase.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 311 AM EDT Monday...Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that we'll see our next shot of rain next weekend.
Ridging will push east of our region on Friday, while an upper trough starts to dig into the Great Lakes. Surface low pressure will move from the Midwest across the Great Lakes and up to our west, and south/southwest flow between this feature and high pressure departing to our east will result in increasing moisture. Showers will spread into VT/northern NY late Friday and Friday night in response to a warm front, then continue through much of Saturday ahead of a cold front, which should move through sometime late Saturday/Saturday night. While there remains timing/intensity differences between the long range models, consensus seems to be that the cold frontal passage will usher in a colder and drier airmass by Sunday, so hopefully at least the second half of the weekend will be dry. Regardless, Friday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, while Saturday will be several degrees cooler due to widespread showers/clouds and the frontal passage.
Assuming the aforementioned timing consensus holds true, Sunday would be even cooler as the upper trough swings overhead; both the 00z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have highs just in the 40s to low 50s. Of course, this far out would expect the details to change over the next few days, and have stayed close to the NBM for the late week given continued model differences.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 00Z, then a period of showers with some MVFR conditions are expected between 00Z and 06Z followed by perhaps some lingering low ceilings at MSS and maybe MPV as flow becomes southeasterly. Probabilities of MVFR ceilings are greatest at MSS, and elsewhere they likely will be temporary in any heavier shower, with perhaps some 2500 to 3000 foot ceilings following the showers at SLK and MPV.

Calm winds to start the period will pick up gradually out of the south, except at MSS where winds will be east/northeasterly.
Winds will mainly be 5 to 10 knots with 15 to 20 knot gusts possible during the afternoon. Along with the showers will be low level wind shear at all terminals as southerly/south- southwesterly flow greatly increases (40-45 knots at 2000 feet above ground level). At the surface, winds in the 00Z-06Z period will likely be gusty primarily at BTV. Winds and wind shear will diminish markedly after 06Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.