Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:37PM Thursday February 20, 2020 10:59 PM EST (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912312230;;216635 Fzus61 Kbuf 311749 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1249 Pm Est Tue Dec 31 2019 Slz022-024-312230- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1249 Pm Est Tue Dec 31 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers and numerous rain showers.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Rain showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed for the 2019 navigation season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 202330 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 630 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Ridge of surface high pressure builds over the north country overnight, and tonight will be the coldest night of the week with lows falling to the single digits below zero for most areas. Temperatures will then moderate as we head into the weekend with temperatures warming back to above normal temperatures through early next week. No chances for precipitation through the weekend with the next chance for rain/snow occurring midweek as a low pressure system lifts northeastward out of the central US.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 622 PM EST Thursday . Forecast continues to be on track so far. The main challenge looks to be keeping on top of the temperatures as they continue to drop this evening. Some minor adjustments have been made to the cloud cover over the southern edges of the CWA as clouds have not dissipated as quickly as expected. Beyond that, a pretty quiet evening. Previous discussion follows.

High pressure ridges into the north country overnight, and remains through Friday. A weak surface boundary passing well north of our region Friday night will bring mainly just an increase of clouds for the area Friday night. Therefore, coldest night of the period will be tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions set up as clouds across the area this afternoon will diminish with building high pressure overhead. Mins will range from the single digits below zero to the teens below zero in the coldest spots of the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom. Some weak warm air advection developing during the second half of the overnight over Northern New York should prevent temperatures from dropping as sharply there. Temperatures on Friday should still be below seasonal normals, but about ten degrees warmer than today with warm air advection continuing across the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected. Max temps will range through the 20s. A warm front passes well to our North on Friday night, bringing some clouds to the area and keeping temperatures from dropping too drastically. Mins will be in the teens to around 20.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 315 PM EST Thursday . It will be a quiet weekend, with occasional bouts of sunshine. An upper-level shortwave will eject eastward Saturday resulting in mostly cloudy skies, and only a slight chance of snow showers across terrain favored locations in northern New York and northern Vermont. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday. Sunday morning, lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 315 PM EST Thursday . The warming trend will continue for the start of the week as warm air advection kicks in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. High temperatures be near 40F for Sunday, and will climb to mid to upper 40s on Monday. Weather will remain dry Monday, though clouds will begin to move in from the west during the afternoon. Models are in pretty good agreement regarding the onset timing of widespread precipitation, bringing it in from the southwest late Monday night. Though precipitation may begin as snow with surface temperatures remaining cool overnight, it will quickly change to rain for Tuesday as high temperatures reach low to mid 40s. With warm temperatures both aloft (2-3C at 850mb) and at the surface, this looks primarily to be rain event, with chances of snow limited to the overnight hours as surface temperatures cool. Though rain is the most likely outcome with this system given the temperature profiles, there are differences between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the track of the surface low, leaving room for some uncertainty.

Model guidance continues to divergence beyond this time period, providing different solutions regarding the evolution of the upper level trough. Ultimately, there will be another low pressure system that will bring widespread precipitation to the North Country sometime late Wednesday through Thursday. However, differences in model solutions affect precipitation timing, intensity, and type. The 12Z ECMWF shows the low tracking along the East Coast/southern New England, providing a colder solution more favorable for snow. While the GFS, however, tracks the low across western New York, favoring a warmer solution and rain. With such differences, the forecast leans heavily towards the NBM for the later half of the coming week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 00Z Saturday . VFR for next 24 hours. Most cloud cover has dissipated with KRUT being the only exception, but will be SKC from 03Z onward. Winds will be light and variable again overnight as high pressure crests overhead with Western NY seeing some gusty southwesterly winds after 18Z at 10-20 knots.

Outlook .

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Neiles NEAR TERM . Neiles/Verasamy SHORT TERM . Hammond LONG TERM . Hammond AVIATION . Neiles/Verasamy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi65 min 7°F 1032.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair-3°F-9°F75%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSS

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3SW3CalmN4N6NE5N4NW5NW7W5NW9W9W12W10W9W7W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW12
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2 days agoNE3NE3E5NE5E4NE5NE8NE7NE8E8E9E11NE10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.