Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waddington, NY
May 18, 2024 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:38 PM Moonset 2:21 AM |
SLZ024 Expires:202405182115;;427570 Fzus61 Kbuf 181434 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
slz022-024-182115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy drizzle late this morning.
Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Sunday - Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
slz022-024-182115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 181936 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build into the region tonight and continue through early this upcoming week. Warmer and drier weather returns to the North Country with temperatures well into the 70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, especially areas that received rainfall today. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Water vapor showing deeper moisture associated with weak trof shifting east of cwa, while subsidence/dry air aloft is building over northern NY into the CPV. This drying wl help to produce clearing skies overnight with some areas of patchy fog. Greatest probability of fog development with vis below 1sm wl be NEK and parts of central/eastern VT, along with portions of the northern Dacks. The highest potential wl be from 07z-11z tonight.
Temps wl cool back into the lower 40s SLK/NEK to l/m 50s CPV/SLV.
Have noted some higher sfc dwpts pooling in the SLV, which combined with temps dropping below cross over values and light winds could result in some fog SLV, but confidence is too low to place in fcst attm.
Sunday/Sunday night is very quiet with building mid/upper lvl ridge, resulting in a dry and warm fcst. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15- 16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br given a day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for this period with surface high pressure prevailing across the Northeast. With light winds and mostly clear skies, expect overnight lows in the 50s with a few upper 40 degree readings in the typically colder spots.
Then we begin our warming trend on Monday, with mid 570 Dm heights nosing in from the southwest. With 925mb temperatures forecast to reach +17 to +20C, expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
A few mid 80s readings are not out of the question. Light winds and plentiful sunshine should make a rather decent day to be outdoors.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the season with little relief overnight Tuesday. 925mb temperatures reach +21 to +24C, or 2 standard deviations above normal. For reference, typical highs for mid to late May are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Global guidance hints at the potential for some embedded shortwave energy in the building H5 ridge east of the Ohio River valley on Tuesday, so there remains questions how efficient the daytime heating and boundary layer mixing can get. Adding 8C to the forecast 925mb temperatures get us into the mid to upper 80s range, so still quite toasty with marginal to minor heat risk concerns since the population would not have been acclimated. If we do get more clouds than sun on Tuesday, then overnight lows Tuesday night might have a hard time falling below 70 here in the Champlain valley. Additionally, there are indications the cold front could be delayed till late Wednesday or even overnight Wednesday, allowing for yet another day of mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Bottom line, it would likely be quite toasty and perhaps uncomfortably warm on Tuesday into Wednesday so prepare accordingly.
Heading into Thursday, we do get a reprieve from the heat. While there is a good chance for thunderstorms given the contrasting air mass and cold front, it is far from a slam dunk we will get any kind of severe weather. The main upper low remains over the Upper Midwest, with pieces of weaker shortwave energy peeling off from the parent low and giving our region a glancing blow overnight Wednesday. This setup is not favorable for severe weather across North Country since the best forcing is directed to our north. Given the model differences on the timing of the cold front, have generally kept PoPs in the chance category (less than 54 percent).
It will be a rather significant cooldown for this time of the year, with highs on Friday into Saturday 15 to 20 degrees lower than on Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Light rain showers will exit EFK and MPV in the next 1 to 2 hours with VFR conditions prevailing into the evening hours. Agree with previous forecaster patchy fog is possible (40-50%) on Sunday morning, especially at locations that received rainfall today, such as EFK. Also, have noted slightly higher dwpts at SLK, supporting greater potential for going below cross over temp tonight to support some localized fog/br. Have continued with previous forecaster idea of 1SM in BR for now at SLK/EFK and MPV, which is supporting by model sounding data showing a shallow thermal inversion with saturated sfc conditions. Highest confidence of fog/br potential will be btwn 07-11z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions persist, except a small chance <10% of some shallow fog at MSS, however confidence too low to mention attm. Winds are generally light and variable thru the next 12 to 24 hours.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build into the region tonight and continue through early this upcoming week. Warmer and drier weather returns to the North Country with temperatures well into the 70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, especially areas that received rainfall today. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Water vapor showing deeper moisture associated with weak trof shifting east of cwa, while subsidence/dry air aloft is building over northern NY into the CPV. This drying wl help to produce clearing skies overnight with some areas of patchy fog. Greatest probability of fog development with vis below 1sm wl be NEK and parts of central/eastern VT, along with portions of the northern Dacks. The highest potential wl be from 07z-11z tonight.
Temps wl cool back into the lower 40s SLK/NEK to l/m 50s CPV/SLV.
Have noted some higher sfc dwpts pooling in the SLV, which combined with temps dropping below cross over values and light winds could result in some fog SLV, but confidence is too low to place in fcst attm.
Sunday/Sunday night is very quiet with building mid/upper lvl ridge, resulting in a dry and warm fcst. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15- 16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br given a day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for this period with surface high pressure prevailing across the Northeast. With light winds and mostly clear skies, expect overnight lows in the 50s with a few upper 40 degree readings in the typically colder spots.
Then we begin our warming trend on Monday, with mid 570 Dm heights nosing in from the southwest. With 925mb temperatures forecast to reach +17 to +20C, expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
A few mid 80s readings are not out of the question. Light winds and plentiful sunshine should make a rather decent day to be outdoors.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the season with little relief overnight Tuesday. 925mb temperatures reach +21 to +24C, or 2 standard deviations above normal. For reference, typical highs for mid to late May are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Global guidance hints at the potential for some embedded shortwave energy in the building H5 ridge east of the Ohio River valley on Tuesday, so there remains questions how efficient the daytime heating and boundary layer mixing can get. Adding 8C to the forecast 925mb temperatures get us into the mid to upper 80s range, so still quite toasty with marginal to minor heat risk concerns since the population would not have been acclimated. If we do get more clouds than sun on Tuesday, then overnight lows Tuesday night might have a hard time falling below 70 here in the Champlain valley. Additionally, there are indications the cold front could be delayed till late Wednesday or even overnight Wednesday, allowing for yet another day of mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Bottom line, it would likely be quite toasty and perhaps uncomfortably warm on Tuesday into Wednesday so prepare accordingly.
Heading into Thursday, we do get a reprieve from the heat. While there is a good chance for thunderstorms given the contrasting air mass and cold front, it is far from a slam dunk we will get any kind of severe weather. The main upper low remains over the Upper Midwest, with pieces of weaker shortwave energy peeling off from the parent low and giving our region a glancing blow overnight Wednesday. This setup is not favorable for severe weather across North Country since the best forcing is directed to our north. Given the model differences on the timing of the cold front, have generally kept PoPs in the chance category (less than 54 percent).
It will be a rather significant cooldown for this time of the year, with highs on Friday into Saturday 15 to 20 degrees lower than on Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Light rain showers will exit EFK and MPV in the next 1 to 2 hours with VFR conditions prevailing into the evening hours. Agree with previous forecaster patchy fog is possible (40-50%) on Sunday morning, especially at locations that received rainfall today, such as EFK. Also, have noted slightly higher dwpts at SLK, supporting greater potential for going below cross over temp tonight to support some localized fog/br. Have continued with previous forecaster idea of 1SM in BR for now at SLK/EFK and MPV, which is supporting by model sounding data showing a shallow thermal inversion with saturated sfc conditions. Highest confidence of fog/br potential will be btwn 07-11z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions persist, except a small chance <10% of some shallow fog at MSS, however confidence too low to mention attm. Winds are generally light and variable thru the next 12 to 24 hours.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY | 49 mi | 52 min | 73°F | 29.92 |
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| CYOW OTTAWA/MACDONALDCARTIER INTL,CN | 9 sm | 40 min | E 07 | 15 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 57°F | 60% | 29.95 | |
| CYND OTTAWA/GATINEAU,CN | 18 sm | 40 min | E 06 | 15 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 57°F | 60% | 29.95 |
Montague, NY,
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