NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 652 PM EDT Friday...Minimal updates to the forecast tonight. There is smoke from Canadian wildfires aloft, and some of it even appears to be mixing to the surface with multiple accounts of people being able to smell it. Otherwise, temperatures are falling slightly slower than expected, so slight hourly adjustments were made. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Pleasant weather with cooler temperatures and low humidity will continue for the rest of the day. A weak reinforcing cold front will pass through this afternoon and it could set off a brief shower over the higher elevations of northern Vermont. Any of these showers would be light and relatively unimpactful. Western wildfire smoke is impacting the region this afternoon, and while most of it is aloft, some of it has been able to mix down to the surface. This has caused some lowered air quality across northern Vermont and northern New York, particularly in the Northeast Kingdom. Some of the smoke will continue through tonight and keep the lower air quality in place. Winds will lighten up this evening and combined with relatively dry air and mostly clear skies, there will be efficient radiational cooling. This will cause low temperatures to fall into the 50s and upper 40s away from immediate Lake Champlain. Patchy fog should develop in the climatologically favored valleys. With the boundary layer decoupling, any near surface smoke that lingers into the evening will not be able to dissipate until the day tomorrow. Temperatures will rise a little higher tomorrow compared to today, but humidity will remain low with dew points staying in the 50s. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Efficient radiational cooling will occur tomorrow night and temperatures will fall back into the 50s and lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through Monday with seasonably warm and dry weather expected. A cutoff upper low that is progged to form along the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Sunday will drift northwest toward Cape Cod into Monday, though with little fanfare other than to perhaps spread some scattered mid/high level cloud cover into our region from the southeast. Daily highs should range through the 80s to locally near 90 in the warmest spots, while overnight lows range through the 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Conditions remain warm, not hot, but with an increasing level of humidity from Tuesday onward of next week as a fairly deep longwave trough pulls east from the Midwest/Great Lakes region and more consistent southerly flow develops. This will foster increasing chances of showers and a few storms through the period, most focused during the afternoon/early evening hours. Can't rule out a locally stronger storm on any of these days, however, lapse rates and PBL instability appear modest at best, and as such more organized severe weather looks unlikely, at least at this point. As mentioned above, there will be a greater level of humidity in the air, not uncommon for mid-summer, so overnight lows will likely hold on the warmer side - generally 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...Primarily VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with only exceptions being some localized valley fog and some occasional smoke. Most likely location for fog formation will be valleys of eastern Vermont as well as the northern Adirondacks. Not expecting widespread dense fog in these locations, but have forecast some 2-6SM BR between 06Z and 12Z at KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK. These sites may see brief reductions below 1SM closer to 09-12z, but confidence in dense fog is not high enough to include mention in the TAFs at this point. Otherwise, will continue to see some smoke over the area from wildfires in the western US. Smoke will mainly stay aloft but occasionally mix down to the surface. For the most part, not expecting visibility restrictions at the surface due to smoke, but can't rule out some occasional 6SM smoke observations. Winds will be light and variable and terrain driven overnight, then become northwesterly tomorrow.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.