Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chateaugay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 626 PM EDT Saturday...With the loss of the sun, temperatures have begun to cool down quickly and that will continue through the evening. Efficient mixing today dropped dew points a little under the forecast, so lowered them a little this evening. However, they will trend up slightly as the boundary layer decouples. The afternoon cumulus has dissipated by this point and mostly clear skies will prevail for the rest of the night. Watching some clouds over Quebec's Eastern Townships that are attempting to move southeast into the Northeast Kingdom, but continue to think they will stay to the north.

Previous Forecast...Fcst focus tonight wl be frost and fog potential acrs parts of our cwa. Water vapor shows a lobe of extremely dry air aloft advecting acrs our cwa, while 1028mb sfc high pres builds into our fa. This dry air aloft wl result in clear skies tonight with temps quickly dropping after sunset due to light winds and dwpts in the 30s. These ideal radiational cooling conditions wl result in the coolest temps of this fall season acrs many locations with lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s. Have followed previous fcster lead and trended toward the 10th NBM for lows with some blending of the latest MAV. This supports near 27F at SLK to 43F here at BTV. Areas of patchy frost is likely acrs the dacks/nek, but our frost program has ended. Also, some patchy frost in a few selected valleys of Washington/Lamoille and Orange Counties is possible tonight, along with localized valleys of eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties, but coverage and duration is not enough for an advisory attm. Have fog in the favored climo valleys, but delayed development until after midnight. Sounding data also supports fog at EFK too, due to lingering llvl moisture and sharp/shallow inversion.

After a chilly start on Sunday morning, temps wl quickly warm with developing southerly flow ahead of our next cold frnt. GOES-16 vis satl upstream imagery shows some mid lvl clouds associated with weak warm frnt type over the western Great Lakes, while ribbon of deeper moisture with boundary is over the northern Plains. This moisture and dynamics wl be approaching our western cwa by 00z Monday with increasing clouds and showers developing. Have utilized a combination of NAM3KM and 12z HRRR composite reflectivity progs for timing of precip moving from west to east acrs our cwa on Sunday night. Also, have bumped winds up aft 18z on Sunday, as soundings support some mixing of winds of 20 to 25 knots with potential localized higher gusts overnight Sunday with frontal boundary.
Finally noted a weak axis of elevated instability with boundary on Sunday evening, so a rumble or two of thunder is possible, especially given the robust dynamics and associated synoptic scale height falls. Highs on Sunday warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows Sunday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Additional rain showers are expected through the first half of Monday with a strong cold front continuing to work across the North Country. Additional rainfall amounts during the daylight hours will be less than two tenths of an inch across eastern Vermont with little to northing across western Vermont and northern New York. Dry air is expected to filter into the region rapidly following the frontal passage which will likely aid in bringing gusty northwesterly winds to the area. Very inefficient heating is expected on Monday giving strong cold air advection in the low to mid-levels with highs only topping out in the mid 50s to mid 60s. As dry air continues to filter into the region overnight Monday, temperatures are expected to drop to some of the coolest values seen this fall with lows dropping into the upper 20s in the typical cold hollows to mid 40s in the wider valleys. Fog isn't expected Monday night as enough low level flow should dampen the possibility of fog settling into the valleys.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...We've got an exceptional week of weather on tap, especially for those visiting to see the fall foliage.
Temperatures through the week are expected to be at or just above seasonal normals for afternoon highs and at to just below normal for morning lows. A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to descend out of Canada on Wednesday which could bring a few showers to the region but the lack of any appreciable moisture should keep the shower activity rather isolated. On a more interesting note, the global models continue to show increased confidence in the potential for a few mountain snow showers Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Both 850 mb and 925 temperatures are expected to be below 0 degrees C but the lack of moisture will be the huge question mark.
However, northwesterly upslope snow is always favorable, especially near Jay Peak, to help squeeze out a few flurries. Accumulations will be minor, if any, with afternoon temperatures on Thursday well above freezing. Still, it's a sign that seasons are changing. High pressure will build back into the region Friday into Saturday with warming temperatures expected as we head into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...The primary forecast challenge continues to be whether or not fog will be able to form in climatologically favored ares given the day's drier dew point temperatures.
Crossover temperatures are rather low, in the 30s and lower 40s, across the North Country. However, light winds, and clear skies will help with radiational cooling. Therefore, the previous TAFs were largely maintained with the main change that onset of mist/fog was delayed an hour at SLK/MPV by an hour given the temperature trends. Best chances for IFR remains at SLK/MPV/EFK between 07-12Z. Otherwise, calm or light drainage winds are anticipated overnight before the pressure gradient tightens after 15Z with southerly responding terminals like PBG/BTV see some winds gusting around 20kts; elsewhere winds will be lighter with gusts to around 15kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.