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SLZ024 Expires:202312061015;;973580 Fzus61 Kbuf 060220 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 920 pm est Tue dec 5 2023
slz022-024-061015- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 920 pm est Tue dec 5 2023
Overnight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of snow in the evening.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain Saturday night.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 061744 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 1244 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through Thursday along with intermittent periods of light snow showers or flurries. A warming trend begins Friday and continues through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, especially on Sunday. A potentially strong storm system will move into the region Sunday afternoon, bringing rain and gusty to possibly strong and damaging winds Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Wednesday...Radar and obs indicating patchy light snow continuing to diminish early this afternoon as drier air starts to filter in from the north. Satellite imagery also showing breaks in the clouds developing, especially across the Champlain Valley into central VT. Will hold onto slight chance PoPs for the next 1-2 hours, then with dry conditions through the rest of the day. Temperatures are quite chilly early this afternoon, only ranging from the mid 10s to mid 20s with only slight rises the rest of the afternoon. Previous discussion follows.

Radar, observations and web cams indicating areas of light snow falling, mainly into the parts of the St Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley. Increase PoPs for measurable snow in these areas to around 20-30 percent through this morning, with only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation in some spots. Dry conditions expected this afternoon as the upper level trough axis moves east of the region. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures, mainly to lower a few degrees based on latest obs and clouds lingering longer.

Our weather will remain cold and quiet from today through Thursday. An upper level trough will pass south of our region, keeping clouds in place across the north country but should not bring any precipitation to the area. Some short wave energy riding along base of this trough could bring some light snow showers to the region, though this is pretty unlikely at this time with most of the potent shortwave energy also staying south of Northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures will run about ten degrees below seasonal normals for all three periods.
Surface high pressure riding into the area today means we could possibly see some sunshine later today. Breaks in the clouds that develop this afternoon will mean even colder conditions overnight as we have an ideal radiational cooling set up in place. A warm front will approach our area Thursday afternoon, and have included some chance pops for light snow showers in parts of Northern New York on Thursday. Southwesterly flow will mean there's some lake influence off Lake Ontario. We could see around an inch of snowfall, mainly in southern St Lawrence county.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Wednesday...Upper ridge building into area while surface ridge is slowly sliding east to allow a developing mild return flow this period and especially the first part of the longer term.

Wide range in temperatures Thu ngt as eastern VT will still be under the influence of mostly clear skies, light/calm winds and a fresh snowpack for lows in the single numbers/teens, whereas the Champlain vly west will see some warm air advection clouds and return flow for lows in the 20s for most but some upper teens in sheltered Adirondack valleys.

Warm front continues to lift across the area on Friday thus clouds but milder with highs in the M30s-L40s but still around freezing in NE VT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Wednesday...Upper ridge amplifies and crests Fri ngt-Sat with little wind thus Friday ngt lows only a few degrees milder with lows in the 20s east and upper 20s-M30s in NY. Saturday will see the beginning of the return flow late in the day but still milder with highs in the 40s across the region.

Saturday night will be under the influence of the approaching deep trof with SSW flow at all levels and good warm air advection. Lows will be in the 30s with perhaps around 40 in St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys with temperatures rising toward dawn.

Consensus among models appear to be coming more in line with deep system tracking SSW-NNE closer to area than originally expected. GFS is quickest with ECMWF the lagger but very close to the middle of the road Canadian. Rain entering NNY by midday- early afternoon Sunday and across VT late Sunday afternoon- evening. Heaviest activity Sunday night-early Monday with strong shortwave in developing negative tilt flow especially along/ahead of strong cold front with possible fine-line structure that moves across early Monday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches still in the cards along with significant loss of snowpack across central-northern mountains as the existing snowpack is above normal and wet in nature with dewpoints likely in the 40s and strong winds all contributing to significant loss. Ensemble long range hydro guidance and SPORT suggests mountain watersheds will possibly/likely see action to minor flood levels based on current assumptions. Slightly concerned that some convection could get involved which would potentially lead to isolated flash flooding, not that uncommon with timing of max snowmelt with convective rains. Still way ahead but stay tuned.

850mb SSW jet of 50-60+ knots moves across from west to east Sunday afternoon-evening. 925mb flow is more SSE with 35-50kt across Champlain Vly, western slopes...likely during time of heaviest precipitation or slightly ahead of it, thus not much opportunity to reach the surface but must keep close watch. Some of these winds may transition to the surface along frontal boundary possible fine line feature.

Steadiest, heaviest precipitation should be exiting by Monday morning with strong cold air advection aloft for some snow in the higher elevations before ending, but rivers will still be rising/cresting during the day.

Windy cooler with snow/rain showers gradually exiting on Monday with temperatures in the 30s/40s.

Calmer Monday night with Mid-Atlantic high pressure nosing toward area, but we'll be on the northern periphery Tuesday with a fast moving northern stream shortwave moving across Ontario/Quebec. This will mean freshening WSW winds and perhaps some mountain showers/snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...Upper level shortwave trough continues to move away from the region. While snow showers had been fairly widespread earlier in the day, the coverage has been decreased over the last few hours. Will continue to mention some lingering snow showers (with IFR visibility) near MSS over the next few hours, otherwise, threat for snow showers is diminishing.
Lingering low level moisture will continue to allow for some MVFR ceilings, especially within the high terrain sites (SLK, MPV, EFK and RUT).

By later this afternoon or early evening, there may be some brief improvement in the ceilings, as some drier air works south out of Canada. Flying conditions may return back to VFR for a short time, but model soundings suggest most sites should see a return back to MVFR for the overnight hours, as low level moisture trapped beneath the inversion allows for a bkn-ovc ceiling around 1500-3000 ft.

Flying conditions may eventually turn back to VFR by the mid to late morning hours on Thursday, although some mid and high level clouds will be approaching ahead of a warm front. Some snow showers may spread towards MSS/SLK towards the end of the TAF period as well.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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Wed -- 12:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:47 AM EST     0.86 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
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Wed -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonset
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