Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

SLZ024 Expires:202405190915;;463475 Fzus61 Kbuf 190554 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 154 am edt Sun may 19 2024
slz022-024-190915- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 154 am edt Sun may 19 2024
Overnight - North winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Monday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 190728 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 328 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region with dry conditions persisting. Temperatures warm well into the 70s today and upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...A building mid/upper level ridge oriented from southwest to northeast from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will provide mainly dry conditions to the region for the next 36 hours. We continue to see the influence of low pressure off the eastern seaboard though this morning with southeasterly flow pulling a marine stratus cloud layer into portions of eastern Vermont. It will take some time for this to lift this morning, and will lead to a fairly widespread cumulus deck this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds expected. 925mb temps rise a couple of degrees from yesterday to +14-16C east to west supporting highs a little warmer than yesterday in the low/mid 70s east of the Green Mountains, and mid/upper 70s with a few spot 80s elsewhere. A mild night follows with lows in the 50s to around 60 and some river valley fog possible, mainly across eastern VT.

For Monday the main story will be the heat as 925mb temps warm several degrees more to around +18C area-wide supporting high temps in the low/mid 80s for most locations. Partly sunny and dry conditions will generally prevail, but there are signs of the ridge shifting slightly south allowing the mid/upper flow to turn more westerly along the international border. Weak shortwave energy riding along this flow and modest instability from surface heating could support the development of an isolated shower and maybe a weak thunderstorm along the lake breeze over the Adirondack coast and/or higher terrain of the Adirondacks, so will maintain some 10-20% PoPs introduced by the previous forecast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...It does look there is the potential for thunderstorms across the region on Tuesday. Within the building H5 ridge, there is an embedded weak shortwave trough that swings across the northern half of the CWA With temperatures getting into the low to mid 80s and dew points reaching the upper 50s to low 60s, there is the potential for a few stronger storms with 500 to 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE and 25 kt of shear. Mid level lapse rates are not that impressive, but any stronger storm is capable of producing large hail and locally strong wind gusts. With PWAT values at 1.5 standard deviations above normal, locally heavy downpours are also possible. So despite 925mb temperatures rising reaching +21C to +24C, we are currently forecasting highs to generally top out in the low to mid 80s range due to the chance for rain and thunderstorms. A potential limiting factor for the thunderstorm coverage is that the wind field is generally westerly, so the moisture profile might be a little lacking for updrafts to develop efficiently despite good instability and speed shear.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...At this time, it looks like Wednesday would be warmer than Tuesday due to lower shower and thunderstorm coverage as well as slightly higher temperatures aloft. 925mb temperatures reach +22 to +25C, or around 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, with 90 degrees not out of the question. With dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s, some locations in the lower Champlain valley might experience apparent temperatures or heat index values in the mid 90s range on Wednesday afternoon. Whether or not heat advisories are needed, people should pay attention to heat risk associated with this early season warm weather owing to the lack of acclimatization.
Cold water safety should also be exercised due to water temperatures still only in the mid to upper 50s.

Surface cold front crosses the region sometime on Thursday. There remains considerable differences between the models on the frontal passage timing, as is expected at this time frame. Showers and thunderstorms are once again on the table, but whether they can tap into the best daytime heating is questionable. But if the timing checks out, it looks like we have the most favorable combination of ingredients for more widespread organized convection on Thursday.
Ensemble-based scenarios do show CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, along with 35 kt shear and a southwesterly wind component helping to advect a more moist 1000-500mb moisture profile. Overall, given the uncertainty in timing of the frontal passage, have only kept a generic mention of thunderstorms. Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont. Behind the cold front, we do get a reprieve from the early season heat, with seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday and Saturday. It will also be quite refreshing with dew points in the 40s along with dry weather.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Main aviation concern for the period will be through the overnight hours as a thick marine layer continues to shift into the region on southeast flow. Much of eastern Vermont is now under this cloud deck with ceilings MVFR in southeast VT which will likely push over the Green Mtn spine into KRUT in the next few hours. Farther north feel ceilings will remain VFR, and will also inhibit any fog formation. In addition, fog is looking less likely at KSLK due to a little bit of wind just off the surface. After 12-14Z, low clouds lift into a fair weather cumulus deck which will build through the afternoon and clear out after sunset. Winds overnight will be light and variable, and trend SSW at 5-10kts through the day.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.81 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.79 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.81 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.79 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

Islets Perces
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     0.84 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM EDT     0.88 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.86 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,