UPDATE
Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Current forecast is on track with scattered showers tracking across the Northwoods this morning producing minimal amounts of measurable precipitation in locations. This activity is expected to diminish as the day goes on. For details, please see the short term forecast below.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Return flow is underway, between high pressure off the east coast, and a cold front pressing into MN.
Though moisture is unimpressive, a couple of shortwaves are interacting with the return flow to generate some light showers.
A lot of the returns on radar are virga, with rain falling out of a 10k+ ft cloud deck per surface obs. But enough rain is getting down to (barely) produce measurable precip in spots.
Spotty precip extends back to Door Co WI and the MNM area.

Forecast: Mid-level moisture will become somewhat depleted with time early today, as the better forcing shifts eastward. CAMs do not have a great handle on things this morning (we aren't getting a lot of measurable precip out there, but we are getting more than the CAMs show). Will be keeping an eye on radar trends of course. For now, after early AM isolated showers, have added a mention of sprinkles after sunrise across much of northern MI. Cloud cover will decrease mid-late afternoon...though even when that happens, our skies are expected to be smokier/hazier than the last few days. For those reasons, have lowered the max T forecast for today.

Quiet tonight, with limited cloud cover. Some patchy fog is possible overnight.

Max temps today mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

A deep upper level closed low will be moving over the western CONUS Thursday. This in turn will help amplify an upper ridge over the eastern CONUS, with the ridge axis building over MI. A ~588 dam center will be over northern MI by Thursday night, slowly moving northeast Friday. Due to this dome, winds will be light near the surface and skies should be mostly clear besides possibly some lingering higher level smoke in the air from Pac NW wildfires. High temperatures will be seasonally warm.

The center of the upper level high pressure migrates back east landing over New England by Sunday, which could allow some mid to higher level clouds to move overhead. Remnant sub-tropical moisture will likely rotate around the high, however there is still some uncertainty with where the center of the high will land Sunday/Monday. At this time, deterministic guidance keeps the high slightly closer to MI which keeps the moisture plume and rain chances just to the west of the CWA Ensembles show a signal for rain chances, however the onset could be Sunday or as late as mid week next week. Rain chances have remained in the extended forecast for some time now (days 5- 7), with the low confidence in the extended pattern being the one to break that cycle.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 631 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Mostly VFR. Sprinkles and light rain showers will be possible this morning, falling out of a mid-cloud deck. Clouds will decrease late today into tonight. Some fog might be possible late tonight, but for now will not include any in the new TAFs.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.