Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 6:35 AM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1051 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through this evening - .
Today - East wind 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Tonight - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - South wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday night - West wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 261039 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 639 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

-- Elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.

-- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms return tonight.

-- Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening.

-- Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level ridging will center itself squarely overhead today as associated surface high pressure continues to build east of the region underneath favorable subsidence aloft. Upstream, shortwave troughing will eject over the southern Great Plains and quickly lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes tonight. Strong ascent provided by this wave will deepen a cyclone as it treks across the central Great Plains and into northern Iowa/southern Minnesota tonight. An attendant warm front extending east-southeast from the cyclone center looks to lift into northern Michigan later tonight/early Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire danger -- Quiet weather/sunny skies will be in place again today. Combination of warmer afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and aforementioned sunshine will promote efficient mixing today, leading to relative humidities dipping into the low to mid 20 percent range across interior northern Michigan this afternoon and early evening. Fine fuels continue to dry with rain-free weather as well. Winds will strengthen out of the southeast today on the backside of this feature with expected sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. This combination of low RHs, gusty winds, and dry fuels will lead to elevated fire danger this afternoon into early this evening.

Showers/isolated storms tonight -- After quiet weather today, rain chances return late this evening through tonight as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the state. Multiple rounds of showers will be possible overnight with initial rain likely struggling to reach the ground with dry low-levels still in place north of the surface front. Fumes of elevated buoyancy apparent on forecast soundings combined with ~30kts of deep-layer shear will be enough to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday morning. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, severe storms are not expected through 12Z/8 AM EDT Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave riding over the central U.S with upstream shortwave troughing currently over the southwest will continue to provide one more day of pleasant weather before showers and storms move into the Great Lakes region this Saturday.

Aformentioned troughing will progress to the Upper Midwest by 12Z Saturday, while weakening. A second lee trough will develop and continue to push an unsettled air mass into the Great Lakes region with the main focus on Saturday as severe weather becomes a bigger threat to the CWA

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Showers and thunderstorms this Saturday and Sunday with growing potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening: Lee cyclogenesis makes its way to the Great Lakes region at the start of the long term period. Warm air advection will raise daytime highs to the mid 70s with dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s behind the systems warm front and providing plenty of energy for thunderstorm development. Current ensemble guidance depicting shear values above 40 kts and SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2 gives concern for the potential of all three severe hazards (wind, hail, and even possible tornado potential with such low LCL's). Latest updates from SPC keep the northern lower under a slight risk while WPC keeps excessive rain potential under little to no categorical risk for Saturday evening/night. Showers and storms continue into Sunday with no severe risk as the aformentioned trough diminishes and forms a more stationary boundary to finish off the weekend.

-Showers and storms linger into Monday. Chances of precipitation continue at times next week: Midlevel shortwave troughing will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay by Monday/Tuesday timeframe. A split flow pattern will continue to occupy the CONUS for the remainder of the forecast period with embedded waves moving over the Great Lakes region.
Scattered showers will continue at times next week (especially Wednesday), but no heavy precipitation or severe weather is expected at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will persist across northern Michigan TAF sites through this evening. Cloud cover will begin to expand from southwest to northeast later today into tonight, as will MVFR CIGs after midnight. CIGs look to continue to drop to IFR late tonight across most of the area as showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms move through. LLWS is also expected across TAF sites after midnight through the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

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