Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 5:16 AM   Moonset 9:13 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 354 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 082337 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 737 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Interior patchy frost opportunity(ies) Thursday night (perhaps Sat night?).

- Rain showers possible late Friday night into Saturday.

- Warming trend Sunday into mid next week with showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: An upper level short wave over Ontario CA with an axis orientated NE/SW will deepen as it rotates over the Great Lakes region tonight. Ahead of this shortwave, a skinny deformation area will reach across northern MI and continue the mostly cloudy skies through the late afternoon/evening hours. Skies could eventually clear up before more move in tonight from the north and south. Mid to high clouds will move in from the south with lower clouds moving in from the north tonight. Cooler and drier air will seep in from the north overnight. This leads to some uncertainty with if fog will form tonight. Chances over eastern upper and the southern CWA will be the lowest for haze or fog, with northern lower near the tip of the mitt, Little Traverse Bay, and near Alpena seeing better chances. Any fog that does form should be patchy as it will be dependent on clear skies overhead, light winds near the surface, and surface moisture lingering.

Thursday, winds will be mostly northerly as the shortwave makes its way over northern MI. A surface low will make its ways towards the southern part of the state, with most precipitation likely missing northern lower. Temperatures will be around 5 to 8 degrees cooler than average Thursday with skies mostly cloudy.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest to southeast moving trough Thursday night with low pressure well to the south and east of the region. Compact upper low on its heels Friday night into Saturday as it moves southeast, center passing near or just to the south of southwest northern lower Michigan spreading rain shower chances. Moisture advection and energy resurrection (energy traverses the region or within the vicinity once more) Sunday into mid next week will result in the chance for rain showers again.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Cool night is expected Thursday night as high pressure builds over the area. If skies clear enough and winds become relatively calm, could see temperatures close to frost range within the interior.
Have values between 35 and 37 degrees right now, so we'll see how this trends.

Upper level system digs down from Canada southeast into Upper Midwest and is progged to pass near or just to the southwest of southwest northern lower Friday night into Saturday. Thus, rain chances along and north of this system are expected. Another generally minor event but some guidance hinting at a band of modest to moderate precipitation right under the cold pool aloft generally southwest of Gaylord. Lingering showers Saturday afternoon then clearing into Sunday. Temperatures will be cool as well, possibly flirting with interior frosty temps Saturday night.

Warming trend is expected Sunday into the middle portions of next week as heights rise and moisture increases as wind shift around to the south. Some guidance indicating an influx of dewpoints into the 40s and 50s with a non-zero chance for thunder sporadically next week, especially Monday when a weak feature aloft and a sfc boundary is progged into the region (discrepancies on timing between deterministic guidance). ENS guidance probs for >500J/kg of CAPE is low to though so at this time not expecting a huge deal with this, but worth monitoring as always in case the coarser resolution of the ensembles is not capturing the complexity of the situation.
Temperatures rise into the mid 60s to low 70s during this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Mostly VFR, but could be some fog and lower cigs TVC/APN tonight.

Low pressure will pass south of MI on Thursday. This will increase cloud cover, and could produce rain showers in southern areas (MBL) on Thursday. Further north, drier low-level air has made it into eastern upper MI, and VFR is expected. In between, there is enough low-level moisture to contribute to some fog and lower clouds tonight, especially at TVC and APN.

Light winds early tonight, becoming ne and a bit gusty Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,