Stephenson, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stephenson, MI

June 14, 2024 11:05 PM CDT (04:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:04 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 1:14 PM   Moonset 1:13 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1036 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Rest of the night - E wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.

Saturday - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.

Saturday night - SE wind 10 to 20 kts. Gusts to around 25 kts after midnight. Light rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday - S wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.

LMZ500
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 142302 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 702 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

GOES-16 visible imagery shows a fair-weather cu field away from Lake Superior across the UP, but otherwise clear skies are over the UP today. RAP analysis shows ridging over the Plains advancing towards the Upper Great Lakes, which the negative vorticity advection is supporting a near-1020mb high pressure over Lake Superior this afternoon. With the high pressure expected to linger over the region through at least Saturday morning, no precipitation is expected.
While the main component of the wind is northerly, flow is weak enough that local influences and lake breezes are allowing for light and variable winds in some spots through this evening. Overnight, as the high shifts slightly, winds will gradually become more southerly, though should remain below 10 kt. Clear skies over the east will allow temperatures to fall to the low 40s per bias- corrected gridded MOS guidance, with some scattered skies over the west half keeping lows around 50.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The pattern becomes increasingly amplified heading into next week as a mid-level trough digging into western North America amplifies a ridge from the Great Lakes through the Atlantic Coast into eastern Canada. This pattern transition will result in much warmer, summerlike weather for Upper Mi by next week. A series of shortwaves riding over the ridge will also bring episodes of showers and t- storms heading into next week with the next best chance likely occurring Sat night into Sunday.

Dry weather continues for most of Saturday with the midlevel ridge axis sliding over the area supporting surface high pressure centered over eastern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes. As a weak shortwave emerges out of the Central Plains, the pressure gradient tightens over the area resulting in increasing southerly winds for the afternoon with gusts to 20 mph possible for much of the UP. Cloud cover will also be on the increase throughout the day ahead of the approaching wave.

Ahead of a more prominent shortwave advancing from the Plains, sfc- 850 mb theta-e advection will strengthen on the nose of a developing 50-60kt LLJ as chances for showers and thunderstorms sneak into the western UP by early evening. PoPs will increase as showers/t-storms spread east across the forecast area Sat night into Sun morning.
Although the timing of the shortwave's arrival will be less favorable for strong/severe surface-based convection as soundings initially show weak elevated instability, the impressive lift/dynamics (0-6 km shear of 40-50 kts or higher) could still be supportive of stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail especially as one gets into the daytime hours on Sunday as instability increases. This wind/hail threat has been recognized by SPC issuing a Marginal Risk for Day 3 (Sunday). Heavy rain will be a threat as well with the stronger t-storms, as PWATs increase to generally 1.5-2 inches. Temperatures fcst in the 70s on Saturday should increase on Sunday, especially west half where there could be partially clearing in the wake of the passing shortwave. Readings over the west half should increase into the lower to mid 80s in the afternoon and this heat combined with dew points in the 60s will result in muggy and increasingly uncomfortable conditions.

Warm and unsettled weather will continue into next week. Monday through midweek, the Great Lakes will be situated between high- amplitude ridging over the Eastern Seaboard and deep troughing over the Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the area will continue to pump in a warm, moist airmass; look for highs Monday and Tuesday to range well into the 80s for most of the area and even a few low 90s readings possible over the interior west half and in the typically warmer southerly downsloping spots. With dewpoints well into the 60s, it will get uncomfortably muggy. Given this unstable airmass and our area situated on the perimeter of the ridge, passing weak waves will leave us with chances for showers and storms both Monday and Tuesday, although mid-level capping from the dome of heat over the area could at the same time keep a lid on some of the convection. With deep layer shear still at 40-50 knots on Monday, any convection that pops that day could have a shot of going severe.
Southerly winds will noticeably increase and become gustier on Tuesday as a midlevel shortwave ripples out of the Rockies with a surface low likewise closing off and heading into the Northern Plains, leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the area.
Another strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts may provide the lift needed for some additional convection Tuesday night into Wednesday while the surface low moves through Ontario and sends a frontal boundary across the area. From midweek onward, temperatures will trend more towards normal while the heat dome pattern governing the early part of the week breaks down, although more episodes of convection are possible Wed-Thu as more shortwaves ride along the frontal boundary lingering just to our south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as the high pressure over us moves into the rest of the Great Lakes region tonight through Saturday. An approaching low pressure from the Plains is expected to bring some high-level cloud cover from west to east across the area Saturday. Expect light to calm winds tonight, before picking up from the south Saturday.

While we could see some marginal LLWS near KCMX late tonight (40%), given the marginal nature and relatively chance of occurrence, LLWS was not included in KCMX's TAF at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

High pressure ridging over the Great Lakes will lead to tranquil conditions into Saturday. Winds mainly out of the SE Saturday will be on the increase by the late afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots in the eastern half of the lake. Wind gusts to 20-25kts will be possible Sunday, then winds fall back below 20 kts Monday before increasing out of the SSE again Tuesday with maybe some gusts to 25 knots over the eastern lake. Waves should generally be below 3ft for most of the period, but are expected to increase to around 3-5ft across the eastern half of the lake Sunday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi26 min0G0 55°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi66 min0G1.9 59°F 30.13
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi48 minSSE 1.9G2.9 65°F 66°F30.0852°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi26 min0G0 56°F


Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KESC25 sm9 mincalm10 smClear54°F52°F94%30.13
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Wind History graph: ESC
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Marquette, MI,




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