NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 934 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until noon cst today...
This afternoon..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 101141 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 641 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through today)
Issued at 317 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key Messages:

- NW flow lake effect snow showers linger thru today, mainly into areas east of Marquette, but snow accumulations will only be 1 to 3 inches.
- Cooler today, but temperatures just falling back to around normal for this time of year.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show yesterday's shortwave that produced rain over much of Upper MI has raced nne to e of James Bay.
A second shortwave is currently moving e across northern Lwr MI.
This wave generated the second round of rain/snow that moved into Upper MI and then changed to just snow. With the wave shifting away from the fcst area, deeper moisture is beginning to depart, resulting in a sharp weakening of pcpn into western Upper MI recently. This drying has also been sufficient across portions of western Upper MI to remove ice nucleation aloft, resulting in -fzdz for a time in the Houghton area per KCMX ob and webcams in Houghton.
Other MDOT webcams over the w and the KIWD ob indicate -fzdz is also occurring at times. Temps are currently in the mid 20s to lwr 30s F.

Models show 850mb temps holding generally in the -9 to -11C range today, sufficient for LES with Lake Superior sfc water temps averaging 5 to 6C. However, deeper moisture will continue to exit from w to e thru this morning, and inversions are expected to fall to 3-5kft w and generally 5-6kft e. The DGZ will be above the inversion w and mostly above the lake induced convective layer e, resulting in lower SLRs, likely on the order of 10-15 to 1. Put it all together, and LES will be on the light side. Given the poor LES parameters w, -shsn will mostly end over western Upper MI by aftn.
There may yet be some more spotty -fzdz early, but with snow already on the roads, the impact of any -fzdz on travel conditions will be minimal. To the e, expect nmrs -shsn e this morning to become scattered early this aftn. Snow accumulations will be on the order 1 to 3 inches from 08z to early evening. High temperatures today will be mostly in the upper 20s to lwr 30s F.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key messages:

- Next shortwave/cold front brings gusty west winds especially to Lake Superior/Keweenaw late Monday night/Tuesday.
- Another gusty wind day is expected Thursday.
- Other than near normal temperatures Sunday and Tuesday, above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming week with 15- 25 degrees temperature departures above normal Thursday into next weekend.
-No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI over the next 10 days.

Any remaining light LES will diminish over the eastern areas Sunday evening. Min temps will range from the mid to upper teens over the interior west half to the lower 20s elsewhere.

Ridging overhead on Monday will yield a tranquil December day with highs expected in the lower 30s under partly sunny skies. The next shortwave will dive southeast through south central Canada into northern Ontario and Upper MI later Monday night. WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of this wave should lead to some light snow developing across the north and east Mon evening/night, followed by west northwest flow lake effect for Tuesday as 850mb temps drop to around -16C. The dry air mass moving in behind the front and quick moving nature of the trough will keep lake effect snow accumulations in check, mostly in the 1-4 inch range...highest east. The tight pressure gradient accompanying the front will lead to gusty west winds of 30 mph across much of the area and perhaps as high as 40 mph over the Keweenaw. These gusty west winds will make the fcst mid 20s to lower 30s high temps feel even chillier...especially given how mild its been so far this early winter.

Anomalously strong ridging returns mid to late next week with a fcst +300m 500 mb height anomaly and +25C 850 mb temp anomaly setting up over the Upper Great Lakes signaling a significant warming trend.
The ECMWF EFI also suggests the potential for anomalously warm max temps. Not out of the question that record highs for Thursday near 50F could be threatened, especially if there is any sunshine. In addition, tightening pressure gradient on norther side of ridging over the OH Valley and strong warm advection will produce gusty west/southwest winds on Thursday. 92H winds are in the 50-60 knot range, so mixing will determine how gusty winds actually get.

Some modest cooling will occur by early next weekend but temperatures will remain above normal, with a more substantial very brief cool down around the 18th.

The prospect of a green Christmas for a significant portion of the U.P. is a distinct possibility.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 641 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Abundant low-level moisture will linger under a falling inversion.
At IWD, expect low MVFR cigs to prevail today though there will be periods of IFR this morning. Ocnl -fzdzsn is also expected thru mid- morning. Low clouds should scatter out to VFR mid to late evening at IWD. At CMX, low MVFR cigs will prevail thru this fcst period as nw winds persist off of Lake Superior. Those winds will be gusty to around 25kt for much of the day. Ocnl flurries are expected thru at least mid morning at CMX. At SAW, low MVFR cigs are likely to prevail thru the fcst period. Some -sn is expected thru at least mid morning, and winds will be gusty to around 20kt thru the day.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Outside of a few remaining gale force gusts over the eastern Lake early this morning, winds will diminish this afternoon through Monday morning. Winds will ramp up again Monday afternoon/evening ahead of and then behind another cold front. Westerly wind gale force gusts perhaps as high as 40kts will be possible from late Monday evening through Tuesday. After a lull on Wednesday, expect another gale on Thursday with winds up to 40 knots from the southwest over much of the Lake. Winds will diminish below 25 knots by Friday through most of next weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ162.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ248-249-265-266.

Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for LSZ263.

Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for LSZ264.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ265.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for LSZ266.

Gale Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for LSZ267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Marquette, MI,