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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1144 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 111146 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 646 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through today)
Issued at 146 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Key Message:

- Lingering light lake effect snow showers end; otherwise, low clouds likely hang around for most of the day.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level trof extending from Hudson Bay thru the Great Lakes region shifting e. To the nw, a vigorous wave is dropping se across northern Alberta/northern Saskatchewan. This wave will affect the weather here tonight thru Tue. At the sfc, high pres ridge extends along the length of the Mississippi River Valley into northern Ontario. Closer to home, light nw flow LES, much of it not much more than flurries, continues into the eastern fcst area under 850mb temps around -11C per latest RAP analysis. The heavier shsn are streaming into northern Luce County. These shsn are aided by land breeze wind component off of Ontario converging with the prevailing nw flow across Lake Superior.
Otherwise, with low-level moisture trapped under inversion, expansive low cloudiness is noted across MI/WI/MN into northern Ontario. These low clouds have prevented temps from falling much.
Current readings across the fcst area range thru the 20s F, but there are some lwr 30s F noted lakeside of Lake Superior.

With aforementioned sfc high pres ridge passing across the area today, winds will back around to the sw, shifting lingering light LES/flurries offshore by mid aftn. The weak convergence zone that sets up from the backing winds may lead to some lake effect flurries developing into nw Upper MI for a short time during the morning.
Otherwise, given the expansive low clouds across the region, trended sky condition much more pessimistic today. Some breaks in the clouds should still eventually develop later in the day, especially in areas where sw winds downslope. Expect high temps around 30 into the lwr 30s F.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Key messages:

-Next shortwave/cold front brings gusty west winds especially to Lake Superior/Keweenaw late Monday night/Tuesday.
-A period of potentially impactful lake effect snow is expected Tuesday for the eastern UP behind the passing shortwave.
-A warming trend is expected midweek onward, with temperatures well above normal by Thursday.
-No widespread, significant system snowfalls across Upper MI over the next 10 days.

A Clipper low makes its way into Upper Michigan tonight, bringing breezy conditions and a brief window for light snowfall across most of the UP with the passing cold front. This will be followed up by lake effect snow across the NW wind snowbelts for Tuesday-Tuesday night. 850mb temperatures falling to near -16C will see delta-Ts well into the teens, but with rather dry air working in (PWATs near 0.15in), we'll be lacking much-desired deep moisture that would contribute to a significant LES event. Still, inversion heights climbing to near 5kft, steep lapse rates, and some saturation through an (albeit shallow) DGZ could still spell some decent snowfall rates at times. This would be especially true across the eastern UP, with the longest fetch across Superior. While there is some signal in the high-res guidance for a convergent band to form over the west in Ontonagon County and east over northern Luce County, thinking snowfall amounts will be a fluffy couple of inches across the west-northwest snow belts Tuesday into Wednesday - for the most part. Several inches of snow are possible in some spots throughout the eastern UP before LES wraps up Wednesday morning. If these convergent bands do occur, it is possible (~40% chance) that snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour could be seen at times. If that occurs, snowfall could accumulate rapidly. Otherwise, the other hazard to look out for is blowing snow along the lakeshores; this will cause reduced visibilities in spots, making travel hazardous at times. While the colder air is overhead, it will feel a bit more like actual winter, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday being in the mid 20s to the low 30s and lows Tuesday night getting down into the teens.

The other story with this clipper will be those blustery winds hinted at earlier. With 30-45kt flow aloft and decent mixing up to 850mb courtesy of robust CAA, we should easily be able to mix down some 20 to 30 mph gusts across much of the UP during the daytime hours. Stronger gusts to near 40 mph may be more common across the western half of the Keweenaw and closer to the Superior shoreline.
Winds fall back Tuesday night as flow aloft slackens and inversion heights lower.

Lake effect snowfall tapers off Wednesday as high pressure builds over the area while seasonal temperatures hang on for one more day.
Moving into Thursday, vigorous and unseasonable warm air advection moves over the Northern Plains and stretches over the Upper Midwest, with the NAEFS and ENS showing temperatures getting up to around the 98th percentile of modeled climatology. While the NBM calls for highs in the 40s, given that the ridging brings sunny skies over us, I'm thinking there is a good chance (50 to 60%) that some spots reach 50 Thursday; therefore, I'm thinking some high temperature records could be broken Thursday. In addition, with a tight pressure gradient overhead, gusty westerly winds are very likely (90+% chance) to be seen across the region.

Temperatures stay above average heading into the weekend while a series of moisture-starved shortwaves moving through hints at sporadic chances for precipitation (rain, most likely). As we move into next week, the Climate Prediction Center shows very favorable chances (70 to 80%) of above normal temperatures, with chances also leaning (40 to 50% chance) towards below normal precipitation too.
Therefore, it looks like we will be lacking snowfall chances as we head towards the latter half of December, thus increasing chances that we will have a brown Christmas.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM EST MON DEC 11 2023

Persistent low MVFR cigs will continue at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this morning as widespread low clouds cover the region. Cigs will dip to IFR at times at IWD. As sw winds pick up this aftn ahead of an approaching cold front, low clouds will eventually scatter out at all terminals during the late aftn to early evening. The cold front will cross Upper MI during the night, bringing MVFR cigs and a wind shift to gusty w to nw winds, up to 35-40kt at CMX, to near 30kt at IWD and to 20kt at SAW. Fropa will be accompanied by a burst of snow at CMX, dropping vis to IFR for an hour or two.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 311 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2023

Winds coming in out of the west/northwest are starting off generally below 20 knots this morning, but will be on the increase today ahead of an approaching clipper low that will pass across far northern Ontario tonight. Winds turn to the southwest at 20 to 30 knots by this afternoon, becoming gales of 35 to 40 knots along the cold front this evening. As the front pushes through, some gusts up to 45 knots could be seen near the Keweenaw Peninsula (50 to 60% chance). Behind the front, west-northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots continue across the lake through Tuesday, with the stronger winds being realized over the eastern half. As the cold air advection ceases Tuesday evening, the winds slowly die down, with the gales ending over the far eastern lake by Wednesday morning. While ridging moves over the lake Wednesday into Thursday, a tight pressure gradient develops over the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. This brings southwesterly gales of 35 to 40 knots back across Lake Superior. The winds calm down as we head into next weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162.

Gale Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ241-242-263.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ243-244-264.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ248-265.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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