Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 7:50 PM   Moonset 5:34 AM

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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 941 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of the night - N wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Mostly cloudy early in the evening then clearing. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Wednesday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts veering E 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Wednesday night - SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering S after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less. Thursday - S wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 232342 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation ending this evening across Upper Michigan.

- Windy this evening especially central Upper but winds will subside later tonight.

- Chilly Wednesday and warming Thursday.

- More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Progressive pattern across North America to start this forecast period. Short wave trough digging southeast across the upper Midwest is our initial feature of concern spreading height falls across the Great Lakes...with a split trough off the west coast. Lead PV anomaly associated with upper Midwest short wave trough crossed Upper Michigan earlier today with a second piece of energy over Wisconsin. Low level thermal ridge extends from southern Kansas into Lower Michigan...with colder air spilling south across Manitoba/northern Ontario and the Dakotas/Minnesota. 18z surface analysis shows a weakening surface low/frontal wave along the east shore of Lake Superior...along a cold front that has mostly dropped south through the Upper Peninsula. Scattered showers/ thunderstorms developed ahead of the front now mostly over the eastern half of the peninsula. A thinning area of snow crossing northern Lake Superior was approaching the Keweenaw Peninsula as temperatures have been dropping behind the front along with gusty northerly winds.

Upper Midwest short wave trough will move east of the region tonight along with its associated cold front...as high pressure builds into northern Ontario along with rising heights in the wake of the upper level wave.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation ending this evening across Upper Michigan: Short wave trough passage is expected to bring precipitation to an end this evening as drier air advects into Upper Michigan (lingering early showers to the south/east...and perhaps some leftover light snow/flurries along the north shore). Cold advection will bring some instability over Lake Superior with 925mb temperatures falling toward -10C with a lake temperature in the 3-4C range...but skies are clearing quickly over northwest Ontario with surface dew points in the teens advecting toward the lake. So may not be enough moisture to generate much cloud cover overnight.

Windy this evening especially central Upper but winds will subside later tonight: Tight pressure gradient behind the front will keep winds brisk into this evening especially across central/eastern Upper where the gradient hangs on the longest. Late afternoon/ evening gusts 25 to 35 mph expected (stronger east)...winds should decouple overnight over western Upper with clearing skies and a weakening gradient while gust magnitude will decrease across the eastern half of the U.P.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Pattern Forecast: High pressure will take up residence across the Great Lakes through Thursday along with short wave ridging building into central North America. Southern portion of the split trough off the west coast will move into the central/southern Plains by Friday...spinning up a lee side low over Colorado/Kansas that will eventually lift northeast into the Great Lakes Saturday. This cycle looks to repeat for the latter half of the weekend with another southern branch system that may impact the state for early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Chilly Wednesday with moderating temperatures Thursday: Coldest air will be over Michigan on Wednesday which will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal (which is right around 50 degrees).
Temperatures will the coolest along the Lake Superior shoreline with an onshore wind with highs likely only in the upper 30s-mid 40s...warmest temperatures over southwest Upper with highs a couple degrees either side of 50. Temperatures are expected to rebound Thursday as wind shift to the souther with highs from the mid 50s east to lower 60s west.

More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend: Stronger push of warm air ahead of a northeast propagating surface low tracking from the central Plains and into the Midwest Friday will begin to increase rain chances from the southwest...especially during the afternoon though there is a decent chance that most of Friday will be dry. Once the threat for rain moves in it's not likely to end into early next week though there may be break in the precipitation on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

MVFR conditions to prevail through Wed 03Z at IWD and SAW, then improving to VFR as a low pressure system departs Upper Michigan.
Meanwhile, CMX has already returned to VFR levels and precip has ended. TAF sites will then remain at VFR through the end of the TAF period. Also, strong northeasterly winds will persist at CMX and SAW into tonight with gusts up to 33 kts at times.

MARINE
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Post-cold front pressure gradient expected to keep winds ramped up into the evening...but gale force wind gusts over central/eastern Lake Superior are expected to subside tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This high then lingers over the Great Lakes through Thursday which will keep winds suppressed until Friday when winds will increase from the southeast/east and may push gale force gusts. Low pressure then forecast to track northeast across the region this weekend...which in turn will bring winds back around from the north in the Sunday time frame.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240>242.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>245-249- 250-264-266.

Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>245.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ246-247.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ248-249.

Small Craft Advisory from noon to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ250.

Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ251-267.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ251.

Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248- 250.

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