Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stephenson, MI
May 18, 2024 4:44 PM CDT (21:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 3:27 PM Moonset 3:08 AM |
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 356 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight - S wind 10 to 15 kts veering W 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Scattered light showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sunday - W wind around 5 kts backing S in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sunday night - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Monday - S wind 5 to 10 kts. Light rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 ft or less.
LMZ500
No data
No data
FXUS63 KMQT 181909 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 309 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Breezy south winds and very warm temps in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The strongest storms may contain small hail.
-Borderline elevated fire weather expected this weekend with breezy conditions today then very dry with light winds on Sunday.
-More rain chances early to middle of next week as a series of disturbances moves across the area in a developing warm and moist southerly flow.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Forecast is mostly on track early this afternoon except for a few pesky rain showers that continue to percolate across the Copper Country on the cool side of a ~40 kt low level jet. There was some thunder/lightning with this activity before it moved into our area, but has just been showers since then. Looking around local weather stations indicates morning rainfall has been difficult to measure, probably due to the deep inverted-v signature evaporating most of the droplets. Otherwise temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s in line with the morning forecast with the warmest spots being L'Anse, Harvey, and Covington that all observed 84F around 2PM.
Relative humidity values decreased to 28% at Baraga Plains, Golden Lake, and Michigamme sites with everywhere else staying at or above 30% at this time. The eastern edge of lower RHs appears to be a subtle Lake MI lake breeze with a subtle wind shift from SSW to SSE and dew points a few degrees warmer.
The main forecast challenge going through this evening continues to be thunderstorm chances as a cold front sweeps east across Upper Michigan. Many different observation platforms reveal a cold front extending south from the MN arrowhead toward La Crosse, WI. A lake breeze boundary over the Bayfield Peninsula is also apparent on DLH radar with SPC mesoanalysis of surface vorticity and divergence highlighting these features well. The latest 18z mesoanalysis also shows SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg along the MN/WI state line beneath 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts, which is conducive to marginally severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards and deep inverted-vs with DCAPE of similar magnitude as MUCAPE suggests damaging winds may be more prevalent. Several recent HRRR/NAM nest runs have shown gusts at or near severe thresholds with the most common location being near and northeast of the Porcupine Mountains.
Satellite/radar imagery shows orphan anvils over northern WI indicating updrafts are trying to get going, but have so far failed to persistently break a mid level capping inversion. However, HRRR guidance indicates rapid initiation over northern WI around 20Z/4PM eastern with coverage increasing as it moves into Gogebic County by 22Z/6 PM eastern then well into the western UP by 00z/8 PM eastern.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be weakening as it moves into the central UP due to the loss of surface heating. However, the threat doesn't end until the cold front moves through and the frontal boundary apparent on DLHs area is about 5 hours away according to the time of arrival tool. This is a fair amount slower than CAMs implying storms may be outflow-dominant, surging ahead of the boundary. As far as rain totals ensemble guidance favors a quick 0.10-0.20in of rain for the most part, but there is a chance (30- 40%) for heavier amounts up to a half inch in any heavier downpours.
Skies quickly clear from west to east behind the front while winds veering westerly before becoming light and variable under surface ridging.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
After a continued warm and very dry day on Sunday, the focus then shifts to a couple of widespread rain events for early/mid next week before a transition to a period of below normal temperatures by late week.
Beginning Sunday, surface ridging and its associated much drier air mass will take hold in the wake of tonight's frontal passage.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will result in deep mixing into extremely dry mid-levels during the day. For example, the 18z NAM fcst soundings valid at 18z Sunday over several of the interior west half sites show -30C or drier dew points at nearly 800 mb or approximately 5 kft AGL. Fortunately, surface dew points won't mix that low, but by incorporating the local mixed dew point tool I did cut back on Td values resulting in min RHs closer to 20% across the interior portions of the cwa. The good news is light winds generally 10 mph or less should ease fire wx concerns. Lake breeze activity should limit fire wx concerns along the shorelines due to cooler temps in the 60s and higher RHs. Expect max temps reaching near 80F over much of the interior west half and mid to upper 70s over the interior east half.
Models advertise a mid-level trough amplifying over the western CONUS early next week. Periodic shortwaves in a warm/moist sw flow developing ahead of the western CONUS trough will bring more rounds of showers into the area early to mid next week. The first of these shortwaves moves through late Sun night into Monday bringing the initial batch of showers and isolated t-storms for early next week. Models show this system tapping into Gulf moisture with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches by midday Monday. This increase in moisture along with increasing isentropic ascent should lead to widespread wetting rain across much of the cwa.
Ensemble probabilities show much of the area (except maybe the tip of the Keweenaw) with a 40-60% chance of seeing 0.5 inch of rain from this system with the greatest chances south central.
After a period of drier weather Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next shortwave moves through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday spinning up a 985-990 mb sfc low which tracks over the far western portion of the fcst area late Tue night into Wed. With PWAT values again increasing to nearly 1.5 inches along with increasing isentropic ascent, PVA and upper diffluence fcst with the shortwave, expect widespread rainfall across the area. EPS probabilities again show a 40-60% chance for getting half an inch of rainfall from this system with the greatest chances southeast and west.
Despite the midweek system lifting north and east of the area, models indicate wraparound moisture behind it could support lingering isolated to scattered showers for late week (Thu-Fri) as temperatures trend cooler than normal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR cigs/vsby prevail thru this fcst period except for a brief 2-4 hour window when a cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances as it sweeps east across Upper Michigan. Uncertainty in thunderstorm timing was addressed with a 4-6 hour VCTS group and a 2 hour TEMPO group highlighting the most likely timing of thunderstorms.
Confidence in thunderstorms is lowest at SAW, but strong thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible at IWD/CMX this evening. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds up to 30- 35 mph today veer westerly and diminish to less than 10 mph behind the cold front. Cloud cover also rapidly diminishes behind the front with skies becoming clear by Sunday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Stable conditions will lead to light winds of generally 20 knots or less prevailing over the lake into early next week, except for some 20-25 kt southeast gusts today over the east half ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms are possible today into tonight as the cold front marches across the lake. These storms may contain small hail, gusty and erratic winds, and frequent lightning.
More thunder chances return late Sun night into Monday and then again late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a series of disturbances track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes region. Models and ensembles indicate winds will ramp up Tue night into Wed as a stronger low pressure center tracks across the western and northern portions of the lake. Ensemble probabilities show a 40-60 pct chance of gale force gusts to 35 knots late Tue night into Wed across western and northern sections of the lake.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 309 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Breezy south winds and very warm temps in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front that will bring scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The strongest storms may contain small hail.
-Borderline elevated fire weather expected this weekend with breezy conditions today then very dry with light winds on Sunday.
-More rain chances early to middle of next week as a series of disturbances moves across the area in a developing warm and moist southerly flow.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Forecast is mostly on track early this afternoon except for a few pesky rain showers that continue to percolate across the Copper Country on the cool side of a ~40 kt low level jet. There was some thunder/lightning with this activity before it moved into our area, but has just been showers since then. Looking around local weather stations indicates morning rainfall has been difficult to measure, probably due to the deep inverted-v signature evaporating most of the droplets. Otherwise temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s in line with the morning forecast with the warmest spots being L'Anse, Harvey, and Covington that all observed 84F around 2PM.
Relative humidity values decreased to 28% at Baraga Plains, Golden Lake, and Michigamme sites with everywhere else staying at or above 30% at this time. The eastern edge of lower RHs appears to be a subtle Lake MI lake breeze with a subtle wind shift from SSW to SSE and dew points a few degrees warmer.
The main forecast challenge going through this evening continues to be thunderstorm chances as a cold front sweeps east across Upper Michigan. Many different observation platforms reveal a cold front extending south from the MN arrowhead toward La Crosse, WI. A lake breeze boundary over the Bayfield Peninsula is also apparent on DLH radar with SPC mesoanalysis of surface vorticity and divergence highlighting these features well. The latest 18z mesoanalysis also shows SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg along the MN/WI state line beneath 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts, which is conducive to marginally severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards and deep inverted-vs with DCAPE of similar magnitude as MUCAPE suggests damaging winds may be more prevalent. Several recent HRRR/NAM nest runs have shown gusts at or near severe thresholds with the most common location being near and northeast of the Porcupine Mountains.
Satellite/radar imagery shows orphan anvils over northern WI indicating updrafts are trying to get going, but have so far failed to persistently break a mid level capping inversion. However, HRRR guidance indicates rapid initiation over northern WI around 20Z/4PM eastern with coverage increasing as it moves into Gogebic County by 22Z/6 PM eastern then well into the western UP by 00z/8 PM eastern.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be weakening as it moves into the central UP due to the loss of surface heating. However, the threat doesn't end until the cold front moves through and the frontal boundary apparent on DLHs area is about 5 hours away according to the time of arrival tool. This is a fair amount slower than CAMs implying storms may be outflow-dominant, surging ahead of the boundary. As far as rain totals ensemble guidance favors a quick 0.10-0.20in of rain for the most part, but there is a chance (30- 40%) for heavier amounts up to a half inch in any heavier downpours.
Skies quickly clear from west to east behind the front while winds veering westerly before becoming light and variable under surface ridging.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
After a continued warm and very dry day on Sunday, the focus then shifts to a couple of widespread rain events for early/mid next week before a transition to a period of below normal temperatures by late week.
Beginning Sunday, surface ridging and its associated much drier air mass will take hold in the wake of tonight's frontal passage.
Abundant sunshine and light winds will result in deep mixing into extremely dry mid-levels during the day. For example, the 18z NAM fcst soundings valid at 18z Sunday over several of the interior west half sites show -30C or drier dew points at nearly 800 mb or approximately 5 kft AGL. Fortunately, surface dew points won't mix that low, but by incorporating the local mixed dew point tool I did cut back on Td values resulting in min RHs closer to 20% across the interior portions of the cwa. The good news is light winds generally 10 mph or less should ease fire wx concerns. Lake breeze activity should limit fire wx concerns along the shorelines due to cooler temps in the 60s and higher RHs. Expect max temps reaching near 80F over much of the interior west half and mid to upper 70s over the interior east half.
Models advertise a mid-level trough amplifying over the western CONUS early next week. Periodic shortwaves in a warm/moist sw flow developing ahead of the western CONUS trough will bring more rounds of showers into the area early to mid next week. The first of these shortwaves moves through late Sun night into Monday bringing the initial batch of showers and isolated t-storms for early next week. Models show this system tapping into Gulf moisture with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches by midday Monday. This increase in moisture along with increasing isentropic ascent should lead to widespread wetting rain across much of the cwa.
Ensemble probabilities show much of the area (except maybe the tip of the Keweenaw) with a 40-60% chance of seeing 0.5 inch of rain from this system with the greatest chances south central.
After a period of drier weather Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next shortwave moves through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday spinning up a 985-990 mb sfc low which tracks over the far western portion of the fcst area late Tue night into Wed. With PWAT values again increasing to nearly 1.5 inches along with increasing isentropic ascent, PVA and upper diffluence fcst with the shortwave, expect widespread rainfall across the area. EPS probabilities again show a 40-60% chance for getting half an inch of rainfall from this system with the greatest chances southeast and west.
Despite the midweek system lifting north and east of the area, models indicate wraparound moisture behind it could support lingering isolated to scattered showers for late week (Thu-Fri) as temperatures trend cooler than normal.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR cigs/vsby prevail thru this fcst period except for a brief 2-4 hour window when a cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances as it sweeps east across Upper Michigan. Uncertainty in thunderstorm timing was addressed with a 4-6 hour VCTS group and a 2 hour TEMPO group highlighting the most likely timing of thunderstorms.
Confidence in thunderstorms is lowest at SAW, but strong thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible at IWD/CMX this evening. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds up to 30- 35 mph today veer westerly and diminish to less than 10 mph behind the cold front. Cloud cover also rapidly diminishes behind the front with skies becoming clear by Sunday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Stable conditions will lead to light winds of generally 20 knots or less prevailing over the lake into early next week, except for some 20-25 kt southeast gusts today over the east half ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms are possible today into tonight as the cold front marches across the lake. These storms may contain small hail, gusty and erratic winds, and frequent lightning.
More thunder chances return late Sun night into Monday and then again late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a series of disturbances track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes region. Models and ensembles indicate winds will ramp up Tue night into Wed as a stronger low pressure center tracks across the western and northern portions of the lake. Ensemble probabilities show a 40-60 pct chance of gale force gusts to 35 knots late Tue night into Wed across western and northern sections of the lake.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 15 mi | 65 min | ESE 11G | 74°F | ||||
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 21 mi | 105 min | ESE 8.9G | 61°F | 29.82 | |||
| MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 26 mi | 57 min | SE 14G | 64°F | 61°F | 29.73 | 57°F | |
| FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 39 mi | 65 min | S 13G | 58°F |
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Marquette, MI,
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