Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tillamook, OR

DISCUSSION
Now through Saturday...Minimal changes to the forecast. Seasonably dry and warm conditions continue through the week with minimal weather impacts. The large-scale pattern remains stagnant through the period, with broad and relatively flat upper-level ridging over the majority of CONUS and a weak, positively-tilted upper-level troughing over the northeast Pacific. This pattern will support continued onshore flow, maintaining near-normal daily high temperatures in the 80s within inland valleys and 60s along the coast, and overnight lows in the 50s across the region. Mornings will be characterized by clouds, especially along the coast, which will tend to clear by the afternoon. Light west to northwest winds will, peaking each afternoon. The strongest winds are likely to be along the Central Columbia River Gorge and Hood River Valley, but impacts are not anticipated.

The majority of ensemble members are in agreement that upper- level ridging over the Rockies and Great Basin will build late in the workweek, which would favor a brief warm-up on Thursday.
However, ensemble guidance continues to show the upper-level trough over the northeast Pacific shifting onshore Friday into the weekend, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and winds coming from the south/southwest. Chances for showers also increase to 10-25% across the region during this time, with the highest chances over the Coast Range and Cascades. However, there is still high uncertainty in the timing and potential rain amounts. A weak front at the end of the week would have a hard time counteracting the dry airmass in place, making accumulating rainfall unlikely and keeping most places dry. -10/36

AVIATION
Through 12z Tuesday...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Monday morning depicts a marine layer along the coast bringing IFR and low-end MVFR (1-2 kft) conditions to coastal terminals, and low-end MVFR stratus developing across the Portland Metro Area. There is a 20-30% chance at any given hour between 12-17z Mon for MVFR stratus developing across the central and southern Willamette Valley. High confidence for IFR/MVFR CIGs to persist along the coast and Portland Metro through 17z Mon. After 17- 18z Mon, stratus will dissipate as daytime heating progresses, returning VFR conditions with high clouds across all terminals. VFR conditions prevail across the Valley through the rest of the TAF period. Marine stratus re- builds along the coast after 00-03z Tue, returning IFR/MVFR CIGs (>80% chance). Northerly to northwesterly winds today 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt along the coast, and 5- 10 kt across the Valley. Winds will be strongest in the afternoon and evening, then weaken overnight.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end MVFR (1-2 kft) CIGs through 17z Mon.
After 17z Mon, stratus dissipates and returns VFR conditions with high clouds through the rest of the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 3-7 kt, strongest in the afternoon and evening. -10

MARINE
A largely stagnant pattern continues through much of the week with high pressure offshore supporting northerly to northwesterly winds of 8-15 kt and afternoon gusts up to 20 kt.
Weak low pressure moving over the northeast Pacific Friday into the weekend will shift winds out of the south to southwest across the waters, but chances for gusts exceeding 21 kt remain low, only 5-10%. Seas of 3-6 ft persist through the period.
Increasing periods of 12-14 sec on Tuesday-Wednesday may result in a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the coast. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.