Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tillamook, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Friday...Scattered showers continue to stream in along southwest flow. A few rumble of thunder remain possible as cells offshore tap into minimal instability. Winds remain southwesterly along the coast with gusts 20-30 mph while inland winds are southerly around 10 mph. Showers are expected to continue through the morning.

The large-scale trough remains in place over the northeast Pacific supporting continuing unsettled weather today. A shortwave trough will move quickly through the upper level flow, supporting a rapidly deepening surface low offshore. This low is expected to track northeast toward the British Columbia coast between Haida Gwaii and Vancouver Island this afternoon which will send another cold front toward the PacNW. Model trends have the front moving through the region faster than previous guidance which has lowered the expected rainfall amounts through tonight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening in the wake of the front but the threat is less widespread than yesterday given the timing of the system. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall through this evening, though scattered showers are expected to persist overnight. Rain totals through the Willamette Valley are expected to be 0.25-0.5 inches. Totals along the coast and in the coast range expected to be 0.5-1.5 inches with the highest totals along the highest peaks in the coast range. In the Cascades, expected totals between 0.75 and 2 inches, highest along the peaks with the exception being the Lane county Cascades where totals closer to half an inch are expected.

Gusty winds are also expected with the passage of this system.
There is a 10-25% chance for wind gusts to exceed 58 mph, especially at beaches and headlands. Winds through the Willamette Valley to gust up to 30-40 mph, and only a 15% or less probability of exceeding 45 mph. /19

LONG TERM
Friday night through Wednesday...Rain chances remain in the forecast Friday, however ensemble guidance suggests rain amounts will be lighter and less impactful. Expect decreasing showers through the day as an upper ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows good agreement for an upper level ridge axis to be positioned along the west coast and into the PacNW on Saturday which would support dry conditions. Chance for fog to develop overnight into Sat morning but increasing high clouds may inhibit surface cooling. Cluster and ensemble analysis have trended drier Sunday into early next week. Clusters depict the ridge remaining shifting eastward but strengthening and remaining the dominant feature over the western US on Sunday, then broadening with a cut off low developing off the southern California coast into Tuesday. The NBM continues to trend toward this drier solution but a weak passing front may bring very light rain to the north OR and south WA coast late Monday into Tuesday. Ensembles from the Euro and GFS only show about 1/4 of members bringing light precipitation to the region Monday and Tuesday with even fewer members on Wednesday. In general, the pattern is expected to remain on the chiller side Friday through Wednesday.

AVIATION
Showers linger, with mostly VFR conditions inland and MVFR conditions along the coast. The next frontal system will arrive around 19-21Z Thursday, bringing heavy precipitation and a coastal jet to the coastal runways. Expect southwest winds to continue through the TAF period, with peak winds around 19-21Z Thursday. Additionally, there is another chance for thunderstorms between 22Z Thursday and 03Z Friday. With wind shear less likely today, confidence in thunderstorm development is less. Just enough confidence for a stray strike here or there expected. Overall, MVFR conditions are possible as the front passes through, between 22Z Thursday and 03Z Friday (40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs along the coast and 30-50% chance inland). Otherwise, expect mostly VFR conditions through the period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Rain showers, VFR and southwesterly winds through the forecast. Expect gusty winds during the frontal passage this afternoon. Rain will initially start off stratiform impacting visibility but quickly transition to showers as the fast moving front passes. To keep in mind for departures and approaches, expect winds above 2000 ft to reach around 55-60 kt after 22Z Thursday. Additionally, thunderstorm development is possible between 22Z Thursday and 03Z Friday. Expect southerly to southwesterly winds to continue through the TAF period.
~12

MARINE
Showers linger over the waters. A front moves in this morning/afternoon which will cause westerly swells to build.
Significant wave heights will build to 17-18 ft with a 10% chance of seas greater than 19 ft, and a 5% chance of seas greater than 20 ft. Expect the highest seas to be in the outer waters of PZZ272 and PZZ273. Coastal zones and the Columbia River Bar will be moreso impacted by wind. Will see a weak coastal jet reform on Thursday though the exact location of the strongest winds is still up for debate. Some models are shifting them north, while others further south. Gale force winds are expected once again with this system. There is less than a 10% chance of Storm Force winds in the inner waters.

Once this front exits marine based hazards are no longer expected.

BEACH HAZARDS
There is a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal overflow flooding during high tide from 10 AM to 3 PM Thursday for the Pacific County Coast, Clatsop County Coast, and Tillamook County Coast. Minor flooding during high tide is expected in the low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the lower reaches of the coastal rivers. This is due to total tide up to 12 feet at Toke point resulting in tide up to one foot above ground level, total tide up to 11 feet at Tongue Point resulting in tide up to one foot above ground level, and total tide up to 11 feet at Garibaldi resulting in tide up to one foot above ground level.

Expect flooding along portions of Highway 101, including near Raymond, Seaside, and Fraser Road in Tillamook County. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Minor tidal overflow is possible again on Friday as active weather coincides with the King Tides.

Additionally, there is a High Surf Advisory for large waves and hazardous surf conditions from 4 AM to 7 PM on Thursday due to a strong westerly swell. Destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can be swept off rocks and jetties and drown while observing high surf. Minor beach erosion may damage coastal properties and buildings. Higher than normal water run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying shoreline. Remain away from the shoreline to avoid these conditions.
-12/03

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ101>103.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ101- 102.

WA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for WAZ201.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for WAZ201.

PZ...Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.