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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 230 Am Pst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure Friday, then a warm front moves over the water Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS66 KPQR 081706 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 906 AM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Decreasing showers today, but cooler. Dry weather later today through tonight. But, next front will bring rain to the region on Saturday, with heaviest rain later in the day into Sunday morning.
Showers to start next week. But, building high pressure over the Pac NW look to bring cooler dry weather for Tue, perhaps longer.

SHORT TERM
Cool westerly flow aloft maintaining scattered showers across the region, along with some patchy fog. But, overall, rainfall has not been all that great. This good news, as allows for rivers and streams to recede. In the Cascades, snow continues to fall at times above 3000 feet. But, accumulations not all the impressive this am.
Generally, will see another 2 to 5 inches of snow before showers decrease later this morning. So, will allow Winter Weather Advisory early, as impacts have been minimal.

Otherwise, scattered showers will decrease, gradually coming to an end over most areas this afternoon as air mass stabilizes. Will have increasing thin high clouds later today, thanks to next system well offshore approaching. Will be cooler today, despite mix of sunshine and clouds. Will follow guidance, keeping maximum temperatures into upper 40s, and 30s in the high mountains.

Chilly tonight, with temperatures dropping back to the 30s for most area valleys, and 20s in the higher terrain. Though most roadways will likely be dry, may have areas where moisture may not fully evaporate today. As such, could be few slick spots in the Coast Range and Cascade foothills tonight, as that lingering moisture on roads may freeze in spots.

Models have been rather consistent in showing next system slowing as it arrives to the Pac NW later tonight and early Sat. In coordination with neighboring forecast offices, will follow said model trends.
First, a warm front will buckle northeast across the offshore waters, then lift up the far northwest corner of Oregon on its way into Washington Sat am. This will This will bring rain to the coast sometime around or just after daybreak Saturday, with that rain spreading inland through the early afternoon. With this, bulk of the rain will be north of a Tillamook to Portland line. Much drier to the south, and now appears that areas to south and east of Salem may not see much in way of precipitation until mid afternoon, or possibly the early evening. With snow levels on the rise, will get rather heavy shot of snow (8 to 15 inches) for the south WA and north Oregon Cascades before snow levels rise too high. Likely will issue Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch for higher terrain for Sat into Sat night, but will defer to day shift to make final decision.
Rain will spread south and southeastward Saturday night, as the cold front slowly approaches from the west. Looks to be rather wet Sat night into Sun am.

Now, while this system will have rather potent moisture potential, its sub-tropical moisture feed has been waning as it has been disconnected from its source. Integrated water vapor transport suggests this is a moderate atmospheric river connection, but it is weakening. Even so, it will bring decent rainfall across the region Sat afternoon into Sat night, with locally heavy rain along the south Washington coast and Willapa Hills, extending as far south as Tillamook and nearby Coast Range. All in all, total rainfall (Sat-Sun) looks to be quite varied across the region, with 3 to 5 inches of rain for south WA Coast/Willapa Hills southward to Tillamook area/Coast Range, with 2 to 3 inches for south Washington Cascades. But, as move south and east, much less rainfall, with 1 to 2 inches along the central coast/Coast Range, with 0.50 to 1.00 inch on to the east across the Willamette Valley.

While most rivers draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills will see rises again this weekend, does not appear will see repeat of early last week, with lots of flooding. But, a few rivers (such as the Grays, Naselle and Wilson) could get close to flood stage Saturday night into Sunday.

In addition, landslides are possible with this next round of rain, considering that soils are already saturated. We do not put out alerts or warnings for landslides, and we do not know exactly where they will occur. The biggest threat will be along the coast, through the Coast Range and Willapa Hills, as well as the Columbia River Valley, Cowlitz River Valley, and Portland/Vancouver Metro area.
/Rockey

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW. As such, showers coming to an end on Monday. Then, as high pressure builds over the inland Pac NW, will see dry but cool weather for Tuesday. Models differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF) favor a fast moving front with clouds and rain for Wed. Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu. Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Lets hope for the latter.
/Rockey

AVIATION
Showers continue to diminish as transient high pressure builds passes over the region. Midlevel subsidence will aid in breaking up ceilings and increasing stability will continue to limit showers into the afternoon. Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. A Pacific frontal system offshore will be approaching which will shift winds offshore, further aiding in the drying out of the low levels with increasing high clouds throughout the day. Breezy east winds through the Columbia River Gorge around roughly 18z Saturday as the system comes closer to shore.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the next 24 hours with light showers through 21Z Friday. Increasing high clouds through the day as frontal system approaches near the end of the forecast period.
-BMuhlestein

MARINE
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. Based on area observations, still seeing seas hovering right around the 10 ft mark with periods of lower and higher heights. Have maintained the Small Craft Advisory. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front starting around 9-11 AM Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow. Have decided to extend the small craft advisory through 8 AM Saturday when it transitions into possible gales. However, there will be around a 9 hour break or so in conditions mid-Friday morning through the evening. Then there will be a slow incline as the trough approaches.

High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -Muessle/Muhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR
WA
None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for

Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Tillamook
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Fri -- 03:01 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 AM PST     1.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:45 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:05 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:53 PM PST     4.71 feet High Tide
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