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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 400 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots late in the morning...then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots veering to the west late in the morning...then decreasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the evening. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 092300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 600 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Gusty Winds and Turning Colder...

High Impact Weather...Minimal once winds diminish this evening.
Advisory or near Advisory level wind gusts may cause a few power outages into early evening.

Complex upper-level troffing currently moving through/impacting the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. A broad southern stream long-wave trof is over much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. with a weaker northern stream wave moving across northern Canada. Between these mean trof axes is a cutoff low over the upper Midwest, and a short wave of interest ejecting northeast from the southern stream trof across northern Michigan. A surface low associated with this short wave is heading northeast out of northern Lake Michigan an the moment with an associated cold front curving along the eastern edge of lower Michigan.

Rain showers in the vicinity of the surface low should lift northeast out of the forecast area within the next few hours, while the showers along the cold front will be pushing into Lake Huron very soon. Once the rain moves out of the area, there should be a lull in the precipitation threat for much of the first half of the night.

The upper-level low over the upper Midwest is forecast to arrive after midnight tonight, accompanied by a secondary cold front. A period of rain/snow mix and eventually all snow will accompany the passage of these features. The low-level flow turns northwesterly in the wake of the secondary cold front, and low-level temperatures cool sufficiently to produce over-lake instability. However, little/no snow accumulation is expected tonight, with better chances for snow accumulation in northwest flow snow belts expected to hold off until the daytime hours Sunday.

Winds, while gusty, have largely stayed below Wind Advisory criteria. However, there have been scattered Advisory level gusts, and associated power outages within a few hours of the first cold frontal passage. For this reason, plan to keep ongoing Wind Advisory in effect through its early evening expiration time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lake Effect Snow Showers...

High Impact Weather...Accumulating Snow in the Snowbelts.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Snow accumulations.

Fairly steady cold air advection Sunday into Sunday night which will activate the lake effect snow machine (though lake/850 mb delta ts are only in the modest mid teens range). The flow is primarily northwest so expect lake effect bands to form across the three big lakes. Parts of northwest lower should see a long fetch due to an expected double connection off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.
Looking at model soundings however indicates that moisture will be fairly shallow with inversion heights in the 3000-4000 feet range.
The long fetch length could still produce 1 to 2 inches of snow with locally up to 3 inches during the day Sunday in favored areas of northwest lower with similar amounts again possible Sunday night.
Could see a few inches in total across western sections of Chippewa and Mackinac counties as well. It's borderline but can't rule out a few areas needing winter weather advisories. Activity could linger into Monday morning followed by a break for Monday afternoon and evening as over lake instability wanes due to warm air advection.

Another shot of colder air advects in Tuesday into Tuesday night behind an Alberta Clipper which passes by to our north late Monday night. Synoptic (system) snow is expected to be limited to eastern upper and far northern lower where around an inch of accumulation is possible late Monday night into early Tuesday. The colder air following will increase over lake instability once again leading to more snow showers Tuesday (though moisture looks even more limited).
The best chances for accumulating snow appears to be confined across eastern upper.

Temperatures will definitely feel cooler but still above normal.
Highs in the 30s with lows in the 20s. It will be brisk at times due to gusty winds, especially on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lingering Lake Effect then Another Warming Trend...

Lake effect snow showers are expected to linger Tuesday night into perhaps early Wednesday. Appreciably warmer air then advects into the region Wednesday into Thursday. A surface cold front crosses the region Friday with cooler (but not cold) air to follow into early next weekend. All in all fairly benign weather is expected during the long term.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Deep low pressure will quickly lift NE from Eastern Lake Superior to James Bay tonight...as a closed upper low pivots thru the Western Great Lakes tonight and into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.
Another wave of precip will move thru Northern Michigan tonight associated with the upper low...but precip type will be a mix of rain and snow showers. Precip type will switch to mainly snow showers later tonight thru Sunday as colder air arrives in the wake of the upper low. This colder air will increase over-lake instability...producing scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers Sunday and Sunday night. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR thru the 24 hour forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the W/SW at 15 to 25 kts tonight...shifting to the NW on Sunday.

MARINE
Gale force wind gusts remain possible into this evening with winds out of the south to southwest. While winds will diminish tonight, Small Craft Advisory conditions will be seen into Sunday as winds turn to the northwest. Scattered rain showers this evening will transition to northwest flow snow belt lake effect snow heading into Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

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