Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rogers City, MI
May 15, 2024 2:52 PM EDT (18:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM Moonset 2:02 AM |
LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 1018 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of today - North winds 5 to 10 knots late in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the evening - .then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 151710 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 110 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Localized patchy frost possible tonight
UPDATE
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
No changes to the current forecast. Shortwave ridging sliding across the Great Lakes with lots of sunshine and mild temperatures. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas and eastern upper. Northeast winds generally 10 to 20 mph, slightly higher closer to Saginaw Bay.
Minimum afternoon RH's between 25-30 percent, remaining above critical fire weather parameters.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging expected to cross northern Michgian today, sandwiched between troughing trekking over the eastern third of NOAM and upstream across the nation's midsection. At the surface, high pressure will continue to nose into the region from the north.
Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan today through tonight with just some passing high clouds at times. Low concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke likely to linger overhead as well. High temperatures today ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s are expected for most, with cooler temperatures near the lakeshores. Another night with decent radiational cooling expected to lead to lows falling a good 25-30+ degrees below this afternoon's highs. Typical localized interior cold spots may see temperatures dip into the low-mid 30s -- leading to the potential for some patchy frost.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Upper low over the southern US...with surface reflection centered over the KY/IL area
Meanwhile
pesky, slow-moving BCZ that has kept clouds/showers in place across parts of central/southern MI the last couple days has finally slipped southward into OH...with cooler and drier air yet to the northeast...as high pressure begins to settle in over Hudson Bay. A couple niblets in the upstream flow, first of which is slipping through northern MN; another over the central Plains with a meridional warm front stretching from the Dakotas down into OK with some convective activity. Additional troughing from Saskatchewan back into UT/WY...with ridging building along and just off the West Coast. Dry northeasterly flow over the Great Lakes eroding the moisture attending the MN niblet. Pwats on our 0z/15 sounding of 0.41in is on the lower end of climo, toward the 25th percentile for this time of year.
Brief ridging expected Thursday...ahead of shortwave trough approaching the region. This should bring the next shot of rain to the area later Thursday into Friday...ahead of more noteworthy troughing settling into the northwestern US. We may get into a brief bit of ridging and high pressure for at least the first part of Saturday...with potential for another system to meander by to our south. Looks like we may end up a bit toasty Saturday ahead of our next system, which could bring some shower and storm chances into the region late Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, it appears overall conditions may start to improve going into early next week...as ridging builds over the eastern/central US ahead of the next system currently progged to approach the region going into the end of the long term period
Bottom line
expecting things to remain seasonable-to-warm and periodically unsettled through the bulk of the long term
Beyond this
waiting to see how the pattern evolves, with some suggestion that, after a period of largely near to above normal temps, we may try to turn cooler toward the latter half of next week and beyond; this is not guaranteed by any means, though it will be something to keep an eye on as we go forward.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Rain/Thunder Returns Late Thursday into Friday...Still think rain will be a little slower to return Thursday, given antecedent dry airmass
However
not impossible that some elevated convection may try to develop very late Thursday afternoon and particularly into Thursday night...as some guidance soundings would like to develop a few hundred joules of elevated instability. Dry slot trying to slip in could generate some additional instability going into Friday along a SW-NE oriented boundary, and there is even some indication some areas may warm enough during the day Friday to generate a few hundred or so joules of elevated instability that could keep convective activity going through the afternoon as the front drifts through
On the thunder side
deep layer shear appears largely minimal, though it may approach 30kts Thursday night into Friday ahead of the front. Combined with the elevated instability, moisture, and the front in the vicinity...a rogue stronger storm may be possible...though low confidence in this latter idea attm.
Other concern with this is how much rain we end up getting, as QPF raw output and probabilities seem less aggressive than yesterday morning. Setup still suggests some decent rainfall is possible from Thursday night into Friday, particularly along the front where forcing and moisture should be maximized...though placement of this potential QPF maxima is a bit up in the air attm (pun not intended, but I'll leave it)...which may depend on where any convection actually does try to fire with the warm front Thursday afternoon/evening
Still a lot of details to clear up
but think it's worth keeping an eye on, particularly noting the front may be somewhat slow moving as it slips through the area, which could keep rounds of rain in the same general areas for a longer period of time until it finally drifts out later Friday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes into Thursday with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. North/northeast winds gusting 15kts occasionally through early evening before subsiding overnight. Increasing mid/high clouds on Thursday with scattered showers possible toward evening, especially at KMBL and KTVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 110 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Localized patchy frost possible tonight
UPDATE
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
No changes to the current forecast. Shortwave ridging sliding across the Great Lakes with lots of sunshine and mild temperatures. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas and eastern upper. Northeast winds generally 10 to 20 mph, slightly higher closer to Saginaw Bay.
Minimum afternoon RH's between 25-30 percent, remaining above critical fire weather parameters.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging expected to cross northern Michgian today, sandwiched between troughing trekking over the eastern third of NOAM and upstream across the nation's midsection. At the surface, high pressure will continue to nose into the region from the north.
Forecast Details: Tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan today through tonight with just some passing high clouds at times. Low concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke likely to linger overhead as well. High temperatures today ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s are expected for most, with cooler temperatures near the lakeshores. Another night with decent radiational cooling expected to lead to lows falling a good 25-30+ degrees below this afternoon's highs. Typical localized interior cold spots may see temperatures dip into the low-mid 30s -- leading to the potential for some patchy frost.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Upper low over the southern US...with surface reflection centered over the KY/IL area
Meanwhile
pesky, slow-moving BCZ that has kept clouds/showers in place across parts of central/southern MI the last couple days has finally slipped southward into OH...with cooler and drier air yet to the northeast...as high pressure begins to settle in over Hudson Bay. A couple niblets in the upstream flow, first of which is slipping through northern MN; another over the central Plains with a meridional warm front stretching from the Dakotas down into OK with some convective activity. Additional troughing from Saskatchewan back into UT/WY...with ridging building along and just off the West Coast. Dry northeasterly flow over the Great Lakes eroding the moisture attending the MN niblet. Pwats on our 0z/15 sounding of 0.41in is on the lower end of climo, toward the 25th percentile for this time of year.
Brief ridging expected Thursday...ahead of shortwave trough approaching the region. This should bring the next shot of rain to the area later Thursday into Friday...ahead of more noteworthy troughing settling into the northwestern US. We may get into a brief bit of ridging and high pressure for at least the first part of Saturday...with potential for another system to meander by to our south. Looks like we may end up a bit toasty Saturday ahead of our next system, which could bring some shower and storm chances into the region late Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, it appears overall conditions may start to improve going into early next week...as ridging builds over the eastern/central US ahead of the next system currently progged to approach the region going into the end of the long term period
Bottom line
expecting things to remain seasonable-to-warm and periodically unsettled through the bulk of the long term
Beyond this
waiting to see how the pattern evolves, with some suggestion that, after a period of largely near to above normal temps, we may try to turn cooler toward the latter half of next week and beyond; this is not guaranteed by any means, though it will be something to keep an eye on as we go forward.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Rain/Thunder Returns Late Thursday into Friday...Still think rain will be a little slower to return Thursday, given antecedent dry airmass
However
not impossible that some elevated convection may try to develop very late Thursday afternoon and particularly into Thursday night...as some guidance soundings would like to develop a few hundred joules of elevated instability. Dry slot trying to slip in could generate some additional instability going into Friday along a SW-NE oriented boundary, and there is even some indication some areas may warm enough during the day Friday to generate a few hundred or so joules of elevated instability that could keep convective activity going through the afternoon as the front drifts through
On the thunder side
deep layer shear appears largely minimal, though it may approach 30kts Thursday night into Friday ahead of the front. Combined with the elevated instability, moisture, and the front in the vicinity...a rogue stronger storm may be possible...though low confidence in this latter idea attm.
Other concern with this is how much rain we end up getting, as QPF raw output and probabilities seem less aggressive than yesterday morning. Setup still suggests some decent rainfall is possible from Thursday night into Friday, particularly along the front where forcing and moisture should be maximized...though placement of this potential QPF maxima is a bit up in the air attm (pun not intended, but I'll leave it)...which may depend on where any convection actually does try to fire with the warm front Thursday afternoon/evening
Still a lot of details to clear up
but think it's worth keeping an eye on, particularly noting the front may be somewhat slow moving as it slips through the area, which could keep rounds of rain in the same general areas for a longer period of time until it finally drifts out later Friday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes into Thursday with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. North/northeast winds gusting 15kts occasionally through early evening before subsiding overnight. Increasing mid/high clouds on Thursday with scattered showers possible toward evening, especially at KMBL and KTVC.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PRIM4 - Presque Isle Light, MI | 17 mi | 123 min | 0G | |||||
| SRLM4 | 27 mi | 113 min | ESE 1.9 | 51°F | 41°F | |||
| APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI | 35 mi | 33 min | ENE 5.1G | 59°F | ||||
| DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI | 35 mi | 53 min | S 7G | 57°F | 49°F | 29.91 | 42°F | |
| LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 | 35 mi | 53 min | E 4.1G | 62°F | 52°F | 29.91 | 42°F | |
| CYGM4 - Cheybogan, MI | 39 mi | 123 min | NE 1.9G | |||||
| TBIM4 | 44 mi | 53 min | N 6G | 52°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPZQ PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY,MI | 7 sm | 17 min | N 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 39°F | 54% | 29.98 |
Gaylord, MI,
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