Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 9:29 AM   Moonset 12:53 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 117 Pm Pdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Weak front moves through the area Monday followed by high pressure again Tuesday. Winds from the north through the end of the week, gustier in afternoons and evenings.

FXUS66 KPQR 131831 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1131 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Updated public and aviation discussions...

SYNOPSIS
A shortwave trough will move eastward over the Cascades today, bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Marine stratus developing west of the Foothills will dissipate across the Willamette Valley late this morning but may linger along the coast into the afternoon. High pressure ridging returns Tuesday-Thursday, continuing warm, dry, and clear conditions.
Uncertainty remains with whether or not this trend continues over the weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday...UPDATE: Stratus clouds within interior valleys and along the central Oregon coast have dissipated or begun to dissipate. Some lingering marine clouds remain over the north Oregon and south Washington coastline, and will likely remain through the afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly clear conditions today. The previous discussion continues below.
-Alviz

The shortwave trough axis will shift east of the Cascades this morning and northwest flow will develop across the PNW in its wake.
Surface high pressure across the northeast Pacific will shift northeast toward the WA/OR coast through the day and will continue to support northerly flow across the region. Highs will be cooler than yesterday 7-10 degrees within the Willamette Valley topping out in within a degree or two of 70. Areas along the coast top out in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A ridge developing over the eastern Pacific will shift toward the West Coast and will retake control across much of the PNW Monday night into Tuesday. This will maintain dry conditions and a warming trend through mid-week. Expect another marine stratus surge to develop Tuesday morning as onshore flow continues Highs on Tuesday are expected to increase 5-7 degrees across the Willamette Valley and generally 3-5 along the coast.
Probabilities of exceeding 75 degrees on Tuesday across the metro are decent at 60-80% and 20-40% for the central/southern Willamette. The coast will peak in the mid 60s for most locations. Highs continue an upward trend for Wednesday back into the upper 70s to low 80s. A thermal trough develops but remains confined to southern Oregon and isn't expected to reach the Willamette Valley at this time. This will inhibit easterly offshore flow from developing and therefore highs should remain more reasonable for this time of year. -Batz

LONG TERM
Wednesday Night through Sunday...WPC cluster analyses are in agreement of upper level ridging continuing over the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. This will maintain dry and warm conditions under predominately clear skies. Cluster agreement lessens on Friday as 50% of ensemble members think we'll maintain upper level ridging, while the other 50% suggests more troughing/zonal flow. NBM temps are in the low to mid 70s Friday and through the weekend however, this could change depending on how the pattern plays out later in the week. This uncertainty continues through the weekend. If models trend toward a troughing/zonal flow pattern, we'll likely see temperatures cool and a slight chance (15-24%) of PoPs over higher terrain. If models trend toward keeping the ridge, then expect the forecast to maintain warm, dry, and clear conditions.
-Alviz/Batz

AVIATION
A weak front continues to impact the area, with marine stratus and light drizzle possible at the coast. Cigs at the coast are in the process of breaking up, with only northern terminals (KAST) holding on to cloud cover for a little longer. With daytime heating, we should return to VFR thresholds by the mid to late afternoon on Monday (around 22z Mon-02Z Tue).

Further inland, VFR conditions with essentially clear skies continue throughout the rest of Monday day and night as high pressure continue to impact the area. Gustier winds will be possible from the north, with gusts up to 15-25kt possible at most terminals.

Later Monday night, the thermal trough moves inland around 09-15z Tue, possibly bringing some more marine clouds to the inland terminals. Currently looking at about a 15-30% chance of MVFR thresholds at inland terminals. At the coast, combined with a sea breeze, chances of MVFR conditions is higher, at 70-80%. /JLiu

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northerly winds. Breezy northerly winds continue as high pressure redevelops behind the front.
Slight chance (30%) for MVFR CIGS around 15z Tue due to the thermal trough shifting inland, but still predominantly expecting VFR. /JLiu

MARINE
A weak front is shifting inland this morning producing light rain over the area. Winds remain northerly, and have hung on longer than expected in PZZ253 and 273. Have already extended the Small Craft Advisory, but will continue to track as the high pressure slowly moves. The northerly winds will intensify as high pressure builds over the area and a slight thermal trough forms over the coastline. The northerly winds will be less than 15 kt from early this morning through this afternoon, but will ramp up again in the late afternoon. Winds will be from the north at 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. From there, winds will increase further to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt starting around sunset on Monday. The winds will start picking up in the inner waters out to 10 NM, then spread north and west. Have issued another Small Craft Advisory starting around 1600 through Tuesday.
Will note that if the south-central waters do not ease in regards to wind, may have to merge those two advisories. If this is the case, there will still be a lull before the other waters kick in.

In regards to seas, nothing overly remarkable as the primary swell is from the northwest, and the wind wave from the north. Wind waves will range from around 4 to 6 feet. Combined seas will be 6 to 8 ft through Tuesday, though conditions ramp up mid-week.
-Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253-271>273.

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Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Tillamook
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Mon -- 12:59 AM PDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:13 AM PDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:00 PM PDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM PDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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