Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Portland, OR

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, OR

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 081748 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1048 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS
Aside from periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms in portions of the Cascades over the next few days, the forecast remains dry across all of northwest OR and southwest WA. Expect more seasonable temperatures through Friday onshore flow strengthens. Steady warming through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The longwave trough that has slowly shifted eastward sits right off of the coast.
Satellite shows the closed low at the base of the trough spinning right off of the Oregon/California border. This system is enhancing the onshore flow that will keep conditions cooler and more moist. Temperatures will be much more seasonable and near normal. There are still a wide range of temperature outcomes both in the ensembles and deterministic hi-resolution models. In general though, they are trending temperatures cooler than previously forecast. One component that will come into play a bit more than the previous days is the amount of cloud cover. The HRRR is showing a more widespread coverage of mid and low level clouds which will inhibit some daytime warming. If those clouds thin, especially up north where it will not be nearly as dense, conditions could warm a few degrees above forecast. Ultimately though, not looking at any concerns.

The pressure gradient today will be another feature to watch.
Observed gradients from Troutdale to the Dalles is around 5 mb with only the GFS showing a similar value in the forecast. This higher gradient is indicative of the stronger onshore flow. In fact, the Columbia River Gorge near the Hood River Valley, gusts are reaching around 25 mph. Gusts just east of Cascade Locks could reach up to 35 mph. This trend will continue today and Friday. The coast range too will see some breezier winds along the ridgetops with gusts up to 25 mph.

The last feature to watch is the continued threat of thunderstorms over the south-central Cascades. With this pattern, the southwesterly flow is amplified and the cooler temperatures moving in will enhance the convection over the ridges. Southwesterly flow is one of our more "thunder prone" scenarios. Not expecting it to be widespread or frequent, but could see storms pop up right near the Cascade Crest. These will be wet thunderstorms so rainfall accumulation may be high in some locations.

One slight change from the previous issuance: With the new 06Z models seeing some hints of some possible drizzle in the area.
Simulated reflectivity is showing precipitation popping up as far west as the Willamette Valley. This is due to a very slight shortwave trough moving over the area which is supported aloft by a jet streak. Confidence is incredibly low at this point but cannot rule out a few spits of rain here or there today in the early afternoon. -Muessle

LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Minimal change in the long-term forecast as the pattern remains in a consistent pattern. The upper air components feature the digging trough shifting southeastward and the ridge reforming over the Pacific starting on Saturday. This ridge will once again bring the warmer temperatures and slightly drier conditions. Not expecting nearly the same southerly push of warm air from the southwest, but will trend warmer. With the enhancement of a thermal trough, will see breezy north-northwesterly winds on Saturday afternoon. The coast will be the windiest with gusts upwards of 35 mph possible. Inland locations will not be nearly as robust though.

On Sunday, vorticity advection is showing an enhanced area of energy moving from the north. At this point, not quite sure what impact this will have on the forecast, but will continue to monitor this shortwave to see if it will enhance instability.
Temperatures will slowly rise through at least Monday with the transient ridge axis moving closer to the region. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in this forecast though as model spread remains larger. With the onshore flow persisting, despite the warming conditions, moisture will be elevated so no fire weather concerns at this time in the long term. -Muessle



AVIATION
Upper level low pressure over the Great Basin continues to bring southeasterly flow aloft across the forecast area today. Onshore flow persists at the surface with widespread MVFR stratus as of 17z. Expect the inland stratus to lift and scatter out by 20z as mid to high level clouds push westward across the region. MVFR stratus will likely remain along the coast through the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, cumulus will build over the Cascades again this afternoon, leading to a few thunderstorms which should remain mostly near and east of the Cascade crest, posing little threat to the Willamette Valley terminals. Marine stratus is expected to push inland again later tonight into Friday morning. Latest HRRR guidance suggests a 50-70% chance of MVFR cigs after 12z Friday. Gusty west winds likely late afternoon and evening, especially through the Coast Range gaps and the Columbia River Gorge.

For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mix of MVFR and VFR this morning, expected to become predominately VFR by this afternoon as stratus clears out. Afternoon thunderstorm activity over the Cascades should not impact KPDX/KTTD directly. Light, south to southwest winds this morning will become NW 5-10 kt later this afternoon into this evening. /DH

MARINE
Weak surface pressure gradients over the waters will keep winds and seas light through Friday. High pressure then strengthens offshore as thermal low pressure strengthens over NW California. This will induce stronger N winds across the waters this upcoming weekend, eventually whipping up steep seas of up to 10 ft Sat night/Sunday. Weagle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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