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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 221 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel..
General seas..4 ft building to 5 ft Thursday morning.
First ebb..Ebb current of 3.1 kt at 537 am Wednesday. Seas 4 ft.
SEcond ebb..Strong ebb current of 6.19 kt at 542 pm Wednesday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Third ebb..Ebb current of 2.82 kt at 620 am Thursday. Seas 5 ft.

PZZ200 221 Am Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak thermal trough along the oregon coast will maintain offshore winds over the waters Wednesday. A cold front will then move through the waters Wednesday night into Thursday, with winds gradually strengthening and turning southerly. Thursday into the weekend, a series of fronts will maintain southerly to westerly winds with building seas.

FXUS66 KPQR 291036 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 235 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
A change in the weather pattern will occur Wednesday into Thursday as a series of frontal systems across the NE Pacific send rain and mountain snow across the region through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Weak high pressure persists across SW Washington, NW Oregon into Wednesday. Overnight lows will again drop below freezing allowing patchy frost formation on sheltered surfaces. Mostly clear skies with weak winds continue through the afternoon. Flow aloft will become more westerly and upper level clouds will start to fill in ahead of an approaching front. The ridge will continue to break down but there remains enough subsidence and weak transport winds to maintain the the Air Quality Advisory for the central and southern Valley, along with an Air Stagnation Advisory in the Lane County Cascade foothills into Thursday morning. This will continue to produce possibly unhealthy air quality.

The aforementioned front is associated with a Gulf of Alaska low that will send a dying cold front across the Pacific NW Thursday. Hi-res simulated reflectivity from multiple CAMs show widespread rain moving into the area by 5 AM Thursday. Snow levels will be around 3500 ft and there is enough QPF to produce snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday through 4 AM Friday. Diffluent flow across the 700mb layer, MUCAPE around 400 J/kg [according to the NAM] and favorable positioning of the 500 mb jet streak will enhance instability through much of the day Thursday bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters and along the coast.

The next cold front will be quick to move in late Thursday, early Friday morning which will bring more QPF than the first. Snow levels will be right around 3000 ft early Friday morning and slowly rise to 4000 ft by Saturday afternoon. Postfrontal westerly winds will lead to orographically enhanced snowfall during this time and the resultant snow accumulations continue to be enough to maintain the Winter Storm Watch now from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon above 3500 ft.

The synoptic setup will change moving into Sunday; high pressure off the coast of California will become more closed and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will be in favorable positions relative to each other to transport subtropical moisture from roughly 155W up into the Pacific NW. This warm air mass with ample moisture will send snow levels above 6000-7000 ft by early Sunday and send snow ratios to the floor. The good snow accumulations we will have received Thursday through Saturday will be met by heavy rainfall Sunday. Highest peaks in the Coast Range and parts of the Cascades will see rain accumulations of 3-4 inches from late Saturday night through late Sunday night. During that same time period inland, rain accumulations will be 1-1.5 inches.

A broad area of low pressure will move into the Gulf of Alaska Monday sending another warm front across the region Monday afternoon.
Southwesterly flow with decent moisture will maintain rain into midweek. Probabilistic guidance from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) indicate nearly every river in the area most likely [25-75% chance] will remain below Action stage during this event.
-BMuhlestein

AVIATION
12z TAFs: Current satellite imagery and observations as of 10z Wed show freezing fog in the southern Willamette Valley, bringing LIFR cigs/vis to KEUG. In addition, some locations in the central Valley and western Portland Metro are having vis reductions to MVFR thresholds due to mist. A shortwave trough aloft is bringing a stratus cloud deck at around 9-10 kft into the region. This could prevent further development of fog in the Valley this morning. VFR conditions prevail across most terminals through the TAF period.

Areas of frost are expected to form on exposed surfaces again this morning for any given terminal. Significant accumulation is not expected. For locations with freezing fog, expect improvement to VFR thresholds after 18-19z Wed. Winds at every terminal will be light and offshore. By Wednesday evening, mid to high level clouds will move in associated with the incoming frontal system.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds throughout the TAF period.
Frost is expected to form again this morning, especially in shaded areas. Winds will be light and variable. Broken to overcast cigs return today ahead of the next system. -Alviz

MARINE
Models show a weak thermal trough along the Oregon coast Wednesday which will maintain light, offshore winds.
Relatively quiet conditions over the waters continue today as a low pressure system shifts far south of our area toward California. The only marine hazard currently issued is a Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar for a strong ebb Wednesday afternoon. Seas are forecast between 4 to 6 ft.

Wednesday night to Thursday, a cold front will move through the waters, turning winds southerly and gradually strengthening winds near Small Craft criteria. Seas will gradually build to 8-10 ft by Thursday evening. Friday into the weekend, a series of systems will move through the waters, increasing winds to Gale-force criteria. NBM guidance shows a 60-80% chance of wind gusts reaching Gales between Friday night to Sunday night. In addition, swells will amplify and bring significantly higher seas. Current NBM 10th percentile guidance show wave heights between 12-14 ft. Considering that there will be both Gale-force winds and increased swell heights, the current forecast reflects combined seas up to 15-17 ft this weekend.

As a result, there is the potential for a sneaker wave threat this weekend. The primary swell peaks on Saturday around 14-15 ft at 13-14 seconds. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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Vancouver
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:40 AM PST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:28 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM PST     1.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:16 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:31 AM PST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:05 PM PST     1.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:44 PM PST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:29 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:11 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:58 PM PST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Tillamook
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:12 AM PST     5.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:22 AM PST     2.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:20 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:45 PM PST     7.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:25 PM PST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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