Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:42AM||Sunset 5:01PM||Monday January 20, 2020 9:29 PM PST (05:29 UTC)||Moonrise 4:00AM||Moonset 1:30PM||Illumination 16%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portland, ORHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 202307 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 305 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020
SYNOPSIS. After a break in the rain, will see rain spread across the region again later tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. This front will push inland on Tue, with rain turning to showers in the morning. A warm front will lift north on Wed, with a rainy day across the region. Afterward, remains unsettled, with clouds and rain, as well as over the Cascades. May see another break in the rain come early next week, but too early to get excited.
SHORT TERM. Tonight through Thursday . No much in way of changes with the short term, with mostly cloudy and dry conditions this afternoon into this evening.
Strong low pres well offshore to the west will slowly push toward the Pac NW tonight into Tue. This system has rather strong cold front in advance, with the front nearing long 130W this afternoon, or about 325 miles offshore. This is the front that will spread rain back to the coast tonight, and inland later tonight. Will trend forecasts to increasing rain later this evening along the coast, and between midnight and 2 am inland. Rain shield along the front likely to last only about 4 to 6 hours, as front will push inland quickly mostly due to strong 100 kt jet aloft. As such, back edge of steady rain probably to coast around 3 or 4 am, then push inland through 8 am. Still looks good for the leading edge of pool of cooler air aloft will push to the coast early Tue am, so will keep slight chance of thunderstorms over the coastal waters and coast late tonight through Tue afternoon, with that potential extending over the Coast Mtns and Willapa Hills for mid-morning into afternoon.
Snow level up around 6000 feet this evening, but come tumbling down behind the front, likely down staying at 3500 to 4000 ft for Tue. Good shot of snowfall later tonight into early Tue, but, snow levels still up during that time. By time the snow levels drop back to pass levels or lower, precipitation will be waning. Still, with plenty of showers around on Tue, will keep snow falling in the Cascades, but will maintain variable snow accumulations, with generally 3 to 8 inches for Tue. Will put up winter Weather Advisory for the South Washington Cascades for Tue through Tue evening, and for Oregon Cascades for Tue into early Tue evening. Think showers decreasing somewhat over Oregon Cascades, so heavier snow should wane later in the afternoon into early evening.
Still plenty of showers across region Tue evening, but again, trend will be for decreasing showers. Warm front off to the southwest will lift slowly northward later Tue night, and lift across northwest Oregon on Wed, and farther northward later Wed afternoon. Will see rain spreading from north to south later Tue night, with rather wet day on tap for Wed. Precipitable water plume (with 1.1 to 1.4 inch) aimed at western Washington and northwest Oregon for Wed into Thu Decent rainfall, with 0.50 to 1.00 inch for the interior at that time, and 1 to 2 inches for the coastal mtns and parts of the Cascades. Snow levels will be jumping from 3000 to 5500 ft on Wed, but have moderate potential that could see 10 to 18 inches of new snow for the Cascades before transitions over to snow. Too early, but likely will need another winter weather advisory for the Cascades at that time, possibly even a Winter Storm Watch. Will wait, and let next few shift re-evaluate this scenario.
Rain decreasing Wed night, but another system will push into the region on Thu. This system will be slow moving, taking most of the day to push across the region. Again, another wet day for the region, especially along the coast and coastal mtns. Rainfall looks to be in 1 to 3 inches range for the north Coast Range/Willapa Hills and areas to the east including the South Washington Cascades. Will have to monitor this, as the heavier rainfall and the snowmelt (thanks to higher snow levels) will lead to rising rivers off the Coast Range and Willapa Hills. Not expecting any flooding yet, but bears watching for Thu into Fri, as all depends on where the heavier rains fall. As usual, basins in Willapa Hills and the north Oregon Coast Range will be prime suspect. Rainfall totals decreasing as shift south and east across northwest Oregon, with generally less than a quarter of an inch for the day over eastern Lane County. Snow levels still high, above 6000 ft, so accumulating snow will stay well above major passes. /Rockey.
LONG TERM. Thursday night through Sunday . Rather progressive pattern with fronts shifting across the region from time to time. This will maintain periods of rain and Cascades snow, though timing of when heavier bands occur still somewhat in question. GFS starting to hint at strong system passing over the region later Fri night into Sat, but not a lot of model consistency. So, no change to current forecast, but will keep it rather wettish. Snow levels stay in the 5000 to 6500 ft range. However, may get a break in the weather for Sunday, as region looks to be between systems. Too early to bet the farm, but I suspect this will not hold, so will keep some potential of showers in the forecast for Sunday. At least temperatures stay near seasonal range for mid to late January. /Rockey
AVIATION. Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon except for pockets of IFR stubbornly hanging on in parts of the central and south Willamette Valley impacting KCVO and KSLE. A decaying front moves across the area late this afternoon, but will have little impact to flight conditions or winds. South winds will strengthen along the coast this evening ahead of a stronger front where they will remain gusty through Tuesday morning.
MVFR conditions and rain is expected with an occluded front late tonight and Tuesday. This front will support a brief period of gusty south winds in the Willamette Valley overnight into Tuesday morning. The winds 1500 ft above the surface will be a bit stronger 45 to 60 kt, and windspeed shear is likely at the lower levels north of KSLE for a few hours late tonight. The winds will shift to the SW behind the front along the coast around 15z, but mainly stay S-SE inland until the front passes there closer to noon. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR behind the front Tuesday afternoon.
KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR this afternoon with light east winds. East winds will gust up to 25 kt at KTTD and closer to the Gorge through late tonight. Cigs will likely lower to MVFR as rain moves in late tonight with gusty east winds likely at KPDX up to 25 kt. Brief Low-level windshear is likely between 9 and 13z as strong (55kt) S_SW winds develop around 1500 feet above the surface. Winds should shift to the S behind the front around 19z Tuesday. ~TJ
MARINE. South winds increase this afternoon with a weak warm front before an occluded front produces Gales across the waters beginning this evening beyond 10 nm this evening, and late tonight within 10 nm. Made a couple of adjustments to the beginning and ending time of the current Gale Warning. The seas are complicated tonight and Tuesday as a combination of steep wind waves, a fresh SW swell, and two longer period west swells move through the waters. A long period (16-19 seconds) west swell becomes the dominant wave Tuesday afternoon and evening and builds the seas close to 20 feet.
The high tide at Toke Point is expected to be above 11 feet Tuesday morning around 10 AM and minor flooding is possible in the low lying areas along the south Washington coast, and a Tidal overflow advisory has been issued.
The current swell forecast will generate surf just below high surf advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon and evening. The surf will still be large with 20 to 24 foot breakers likely though, so those planning on being at the beach should be extra cautious near the surf zone. This swell will be tracked closely, and updates will be made to the forecast if it looks like it will build higher than the current forecast. The seas subside Tuesday night and Wednesday but remain in the low to mid teens.
Another frontal system may bring another round of Gales Wednesday afternoon and night, mainly south of Cascade Head. Messy seas are expected Wednesday and Thursday as a fresh SW swell combines with a subsiding W swell and large wind waves.Models begin to diverge on the details of the weather systems beyond Thursday with the forecast confidence on the timing and strength of the winds dwindling. ~TJ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
WA . Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 11 AM PST Tuesday for South Washington Coast.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.
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This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA||42 mi||65 min||43°F||1007.3 hPa|
|TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR||66 mi||65 min||50°F||1005.5 hPa|
|ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR||74 mi||59 min||47°F||43°F||1004.8 hPa|
Wind History for Longview, WA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Pearson Airfield, WA||6 mi||36 min||Var 5||9.00 mi||Fair||41°F||36°F||82%||1007.6 hPa|
|Portland, Portland International Airport, OR||7 mi||36 min||ESE 10||10.00 mi||Overcast||44°F||35°F||71%||1007.6 hPa|
|Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR||14 mi||36 min||W 3||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||42°F||39°F||89%||1007.4 hPa|
|Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR||15 mi||36 min||E 17 G 23||10.00 mi||Fair||44°F||34°F||68%||1007.8 hPa|
|Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR||19 mi||36 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||41°F||37°F||89%||1007.5 hPa|
|Aurora State Airport, OR||20 mi||36 min||N 0||8.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||41°F||37°F||89%||1007.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPDX
Wind History from PDX (wind in knots)
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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