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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 234 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Rain in the morning, then rain likely with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 022108 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 408 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 407 PM EST SAT DEC 2 2023

Key Messages: -Light snow showers will overspread Upper Michigan from the south after Sun 10Z.

The unseasonable weather continues today with Upper Michigan still under the influence of high pressure at this time. Other than some mid and high clouds drifting across the forecast area, it has been a dry, quiet day. Current temperatures across Upper Michigan are generally ranging from the mid to upper 30s with some low 30s being reported out west. And, as clouds increase tonight with an approaching shortwave, they will inhibit tonight's lows from plummeting like last night. Widespread 20s with some upper teens across the interior west are expected for tonight. As mentioned above, a shortwave will traverse the area tonight, and an uptick in isentropic ascent after Sun 10Z will support an infiltration of light snow showers from the south.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM EST SAT DEC 2 2023

Key Messages: -Light snow possible Sunday. Up to 1 inch possible with greatest chance (around 50% chance) in southern Menominee County.
-More light snow possible Monday night/Tuesday.
-Another disturbance arrives late in the week, but forecast confidence is low.
-Temperatures to remain mainly above normal, including potential for a new record high for December 7th

By Sunday morning, a 500mb shortwave will arrive in the Wisconsin vicinity, inducing a weak ~1004mb surface low. As the low tracks into the Michigan Lower Peninsula, Menominee County and the UP shoreline along Lake Michigan will see some snowflakes, though the NBM 75th percentile keeps snow totals under 1 inch except for the city of Menominee itself. A couple of EC ensemble members do show multiple inches of snow accumulation as far north as Marquette, but the GEFS does not, both with ensemble means around a tenth of an inch. Thus, PoPs are mostly much confined to south of the US41/M38 corridor except for a low chance (15-25%) of some southerly to southeasterly lake effect between Isle Royale and Duluth that is being picked up by CAMs, though little impact is expected over those Lake Superior waters. Soundings at Menominee show the layer of highest lift is warmer than the DGZ but still sub-freezing, which should lead to some lower SLRs, further making significant snowfall accumulation unlikely.

In the absence of any prominent synoptic forcing and temperatures aloft too warm for lake effect, Monday will be dry until the late evening hours. Amplified ridging over the Rockies will force a clipper low to sweep southeast from Alberta. The last 7 GEFS runs have been steadfast in keeping the surface low somewhere in the 1000s mb range and following the Mississippi River Basin south. This will keep the PoPs mostly confined to the vicinity of the MI/WI state line, though the CMCreg and NAM have the precipitation missing the UP entirely, as well as the 10th percentile of the GEFS and 25th percentile of the Euro ensmeble. Thus, there is a failure mode that, while unlikely (10-25%), keeps the UP without precip late Monday and Tuesday. Even the 90th percentile of the ensemble solutions keep snow totals under an inch, so little impact is expected.

Into the midweek, ridging aloft advances into the central CONUS and the 1026mb high approaching the Mississippi Valley per the GEFS late Tuesday will be the dominant feature, keeping quiet weather over the UP. Some lake effect cloudiness or even a few flurries cannot be ruled out as 850mb temperatures will be right on the cusp of being sufficient for lake effect processes, though boundary layer moisture is only expected to be modest and surface flow is weakly anticyclonic, so the NBM PoPs have been removed from the forecast at this time, though they could return to the forecast if models trend more favorable for lake effect snow.

Deterministic guidance shows central CONUS riding weakening and a trough passing through northern Ontario in the mid-to-late week time frame, but details vary on depth, track, and timing of the trough.
Looking to the NBM as a proxy for ensemble spread, there looks to be as much chance (around 10%-20% each) that precip falls as rain as there is in snowfall that exceeds LSR criteria (2+ inches in 24 hours). With the spread of solutions, there is not enough confidence to deviate from the NBM forecast. One thing that models have been consistent in is that the Thursday, December 7th record high is in danger of falling in Marquette. The previous record of 38 was set in 1963. NBM 25th to 75th percentile range is 35-40, which is roughly where it was 2 days ago, showing remarkable consistency run-to-run.

Cluster analysis shows shows increasing confidence that towards the end of next weekend into the beginning of next week, a trough will deepen over the Mountain West and potentially set up the development of a deep Colorado Low that would arrive in the Upper Great Lakes in the early week period. A handful of GEFS members bring over a half foot of snow to the UP with that potential system, but the same number of members have less than 2 inches of snow for Marquette approaching the 3rd full week of December, so confidence in a winter wonderland remains low, but at least there is some source of hope.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EST SAT DEC 2 2023

VFR will prevail into tonight with Upper Michigan under the influence of high pressure through today. However, expect TAFs to deteriorate to MVFR after Sun 06Z at IWD and SAW followed by CMX closer to daybreak Sunday as a shortwave enters the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, winds will be light and variable.

MARINE
(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 343 PM EST SAT DEC 2 2023

An unusual return of the "stable season" (air temperatures near or above the lake temperatures) in junction with a lack of strong weather systems to drive harsh pressure gradients is expected to keep winds near or below 20 knots through the end of the forecast package. The strongest waves on Lake Superior will only be around 3 feet in the Isle Royale vicinity overnight Wednesday into Thursday with the passage of a weak clipper low pressure. While multiple rounds of light to moderate precipitation are possible in the next week, heavy freezing spray is not expected during that time.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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