Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elgin, OR
December 10, 2023 2:17 AM PST (10:17 UTC)
Sunrise 7:22AM Sunset 4:09PM Moonrise 5:58AM Moonset 3:21PM
Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 100500 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 900 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023
UPDATE
Mountain snow and lower elevation light rain continues this evening as a weather system (a weak Atmospheric River) moves across the region. There are pockets of near to below freezing air in some valleys such as the Yakima Valley, Kittitas Valley, and the Wallowa Valley, such that when warmer air moves in to change the snow to rain above these cold pockets, there will be either a mixture of wintry precipitation or just freezing rain for a while tonight and early Sunday morning. So far, there has not been any reports of freezing rain, however, there was a report of rain at KYKM with a temperature of 32-33 degrees. This may be freezing on some surfaces, but with the very marginal temperatures, it is unlikely that significant icing is occurring.
There are a number of Winter Weather Advisories in effect due to the mountain snow as well as the mixed precipitation in the colder valleys. An advisory is in effect for the Kittitas Valley until 10 AM PST Sunday for 1-3 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain. Another advisory is in effect for the Yakima Valley until 10 AM PST Sunday for a trace to 2 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain. An advisory is also in effect for the northwest Blue Mountains of WA until 10 AM Sunday for up to 6 inches of snow, and another for the northern Blue Mountains of OR until 4 PM Sunday for 3-9 inches of snow. An advisory is also in effect for the southern Blue Mountains until 4 PM Sunday for up to 3 inches of snow and a few hundreths to 2 tenths of an inch of ice. Finally, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for both the OR Cascades, and the upper east slopes of the WA Cascades until 10 AM Sunday for 4-10 inches of snow on the WA side and 3-7 inches on the OR side...mainly along the crests. NBM 4.2 probabilities of measurable freezing rain is low (1-40%), but even less for a tenth of an inch of ice (1-20%). NBM 4.2 probabilities of reaching or exceeding 4 inches of snow in the Cascades and Blues is moderate to high (55-85%), and low to moderate for 6 inches or more of snow (35-55%) for the advisory areas for just snow.
This weather system will move east of the forecast PacNW by Monday afternoon, however, some upper troughing will remain over the PacNW through Monday for a continuing chance of mountain snow showers and lower elevation rain showers. However, the trend in precipitation intensities and coverage will be decreasing through the day Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday than today, due to increasing 500 mb heights, 850 mb temperatures and rising snow levels. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to around 50 in the lower elevations, as well as central OR, and mostly in the 30s mountains. Then it will cool off about 2-6 degrees on Monday from Sunday.
Breezy to windy conditions will persist over the ridges from north central OR eastward across the Blue Mountains and Foothills as well as the Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa Valley. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 4 AM Sunday for Ladd and Pyles canyons in the southern Grande Ronde Valley. Winds will become light in all areas by late Sunday evening. These light winds will then persist through the rest of the short term forecast period. 88
AVIATION
06Z TAFs...There will be periods of MVFR and possibly IFR conditions at all terminals tonight and Sunday due to lowered visibilities and/or CIGs in rain or snow. Conditions will improve by Sunday evening as the weather system currently over the region moves off to the east Sunday night. Winds will be mostly light at all terminals, except for KBDN and KALW, which could see southerly winds from 10-15 Kts with gusts to 20 Kts through late this evening at KBDN, and wind speeds of 20-35 Kts this evening at KALW. 88
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 334 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/
SHORT TERM
Today through Monday night
Winter weather associated with an inland-penetrating, roughly zonally propagating atmospheric river (ensemble-advertised integrated vapor transport (IVT) magnitude of 250-500 kg/m/s between 00Z Sunday and 00Z Monday) and warm frontal passage remains the primary driver of highlights this weekend with winter weather advisories in effect for the upper and lower east slopes of the Washington Cascades as well as the Yakima and Kittitas valleys.
Additional winter weather advisories are in effect for the northern Blue Mountains of OR/WA and also the southern Blue Mountains of Oregon. Lastly, a wind advisory remains in effect for southeast winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph this afternoon through tonight for the southern Grande Ronde Valley and Ladd and Pyles canyons.
Precipitation has already begun for the Washington Cascades, east slopes, and Yakima and Kittitas valleys where temperatures are near or below freezing. Snow is beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces where observed road temperatures are in the lower 30s, but many observations remain a few degrees above freezing, thus far precluded any significant accumulating snow. Through the afternoon and early evening, snow is forecast to continue with a trace to 2" for the Yakima Valley and 1-3" for the Kittitas Valley. Warm frontal passage this evening into early tonight presents a challenging precipitation type forecast after warm air overrides the underlying cold air that is currently in place. With cold air trapped in the valleys, this is anticipated to translate to mixed wintry precipitation, including freezing rain. Forecast freezing rain amounts are low confidence (trace to two tenths of an inch). NBM 4.2 probabilities of measurable freezing rain are low (10-40% chance), and probabilities of 0.10" of freezing rain are even lower (1-20% chance). Given chronic over-mixing of cold air in guidance, office concensus is that the NBM probabilities of measurable freezing rain are under-representative of reality. 12Z HRRR members are substantially more aggressive with the areal coverage and amount of freezing rain for the valleys along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and upper Yakima and Kittitas valleys.
Elsewhere, the main snowfall is forecast this afternoon through Sunday for the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon and Washington where 2-8 inches, with locally higher amounts above 5500 feet, are forecast. The forecast for the northern Blues remains highly temperature sensitive, with run-to-run variance in low-level temperatures and any warm nose in CAMs appearing to drive the precipitation type by Sunday morning after warm frontal passage.
Given high ensemble confidence in climatologically unusual snowfall (EFI 0.8-1 with Shift of Tails (SoT) of 1-2 for the northern Blues), combined with NBM 4.2 probabilities of exceeding 4 inches (55-85%) and 6 inches (35-55%) of snowfall, have opted to issue the aforementioned winter weather advisories for the northern Blues. Rational for the advisory for the southern Blues is different - snowfall totals of a trace to 3" for areas below 5500 feet do not meet advisory criteria. However, medium-high confidence in freezing rain this evening through Sunday afternoon for the I-84 corridor between La Grande and North Powder has prompted the winter weather advisory. NBM probabilities of >0.1" of freezing rain are quite low (5-30% chance), but office concensus is that the potential impacts justify having an advisory.
Monday, the atmospheric river comes to an end, but a couple shortwaves passing through the northwest flow aloft will keep light chances of lingering showers for the mountains.
Plunkett/86
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday
Sensible weather concerns through the long term forecast will revolve around the potential for patchy dense fog developing through Wednesday and again Friday in Saturday, while a weak system late Wednesday through Thursday brings limited precipitation impacts.
Ensemble guidance in great agreement that upper level ridging will develop over the PacNW by Tuesday morning, and persist over the region through the first half of Wednesday. Confidence is moderate (60%) that this pattern will lead to the development of patchy dense fog in areas of the Columbia Basin, Kittitas/Yakima valleys, central OR, and mountain valleys. That said, confidence is low (25%) in timing and extent of the fog across the lower elevations for Tuesday and early Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, ensemble guidance depicts an upper shortwave trough and a weak surface cold front impacting the forecast area as it overrides the ridge. However, GFS/ECWMF ensemble atmospheric river landfall probabilities for IVT > 150kg/m/s show very little moisture support for this system. With lack of moisture support, this translates into very light snow/rain accumulations, especially in the mountains where 24 hour probabilities for 1 inch or more of snow is less than 30% in the Cascades, and less than 10% in the northern Blues. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area is expected to remain cool and dry.
Late thursday into Saturday, there is moderate confidence (65%) in upper level ridging building back over PacNW, with dry and cool conditions persisting across the forecast area. Though confidence in fog development is low (15-20%), the pattern would certainly suggest to increasing chances of patchy fog developing across the lower elevations, especially in portions of the Columbia Basin, adjacent valleys, and mountain valleys. Lawhorn/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 40 49 38 43 / 90 90 70 40 ALW 40 48 38 42 / 100 90 70 50 PSC 37 45 36 42 / 90 80 40 20 YKM 31 43 30 44 / 90 60 20 10 HRI 38 48 37 44 / 90 90 60 30 ELN 31 41 31 44 / 90 50 20 0 RDM 39 48 36 47 / 30 80 50 10 LGD 31 39 35 43 / 100 100 80 60 GCD 32 45 37 46 / 70 90 80 50 DLS 37 48 41 49 / 100 90 60 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ049.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ502-503.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ026-027- 030-522-523.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 900 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023
UPDATE
Mountain snow and lower elevation light rain continues this evening as a weather system (a weak Atmospheric River) moves across the region. There are pockets of near to below freezing air in some valleys such as the Yakima Valley, Kittitas Valley, and the Wallowa Valley, such that when warmer air moves in to change the snow to rain above these cold pockets, there will be either a mixture of wintry precipitation or just freezing rain for a while tonight and early Sunday morning. So far, there has not been any reports of freezing rain, however, there was a report of rain at KYKM with a temperature of 32-33 degrees. This may be freezing on some surfaces, but with the very marginal temperatures, it is unlikely that significant icing is occurring.
There are a number of Winter Weather Advisories in effect due to the mountain snow as well as the mixed precipitation in the colder valleys. An advisory is in effect for the Kittitas Valley until 10 AM PST Sunday for 1-3 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain. Another advisory is in effect for the Yakima Valley until 10 AM PST Sunday for a trace to 2 inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain. An advisory is also in effect for the northwest Blue Mountains of WA until 10 AM Sunday for up to 6 inches of snow, and another for the northern Blue Mountains of OR until 4 PM Sunday for 3-9 inches of snow. An advisory is also in effect for the southern Blue Mountains until 4 PM Sunday for up to 3 inches of snow and a few hundreths to 2 tenths of an inch of ice. Finally, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for both the OR Cascades, and the upper east slopes of the WA Cascades until 10 AM Sunday for 4-10 inches of snow on the WA side and 3-7 inches on the OR side...mainly along the crests. NBM 4.2 probabilities of measurable freezing rain is low (1-40%), but even less for a tenth of an inch of ice (1-20%). NBM 4.2 probabilities of reaching or exceeding 4 inches of snow in the Cascades and Blues is moderate to high (55-85%), and low to moderate for 6 inches or more of snow (35-55%) for the advisory areas for just snow.
This weather system will move east of the forecast PacNW by Monday afternoon, however, some upper troughing will remain over the PacNW through Monday for a continuing chance of mountain snow showers and lower elevation rain showers. However, the trend in precipitation intensities and coverage will be decreasing through the day Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday than today, due to increasing 500 mb heights, 850 mb temperatures and rising snow levels. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to around 50 in the lower elevations, as well as central OR, and mostly in the 30s mountains. Then it will cool off about 2-6 degrees on Monday from Sunday.
Breezy to windy conditions will persist over the ridges from north central OR eastward across the Blue Mountains and Foothills as well as the Grande Ronde Valley and Wallowa Valley. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 4 AM Sunday for Ladd and Pyles canyons in the southern Grande Ronde Valley. Winds will become light in all areas by late Sunday evening. These light winds will then persist through the rest of the short term forecast period. 88
AVIATION
06Z TAFs...There will be periods of MVFR and possibly IFR conditions at all terminals tonight and Sunday due to lowered visibilities and/or CIGs in rain or snow. Conditions will improve by Sunday evening as the weather system currently over the region moves off to the east Sunday night. Winds will be mostly light at all terminals, except for KBDN and KALW, which could see southerly winds from 10-15 Kts with gusts to 20 Kts through late this evening at KBDN, and wind speeds of 20-35 Kts this evening at KALW. 88
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 334 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/
SHORT TERM
Today through Monday night
Winter weather associated with an inland-penetrating, roughly zonally propagating atmospheric river (ensemble-advertised integrated vapor transport (IVT) magnitude of 250-500 kg/m/s between 00Z Sunday and 00Z Monday) and warm frontal passage remains the primary driver of highlights this weekend with winter weather advisories in effect for the upper and lower east slopes of the Washington Cascades as well as the Yakima and Kittitas valleys.
Additional winter weather advisories are in effect for the northern Blue Mountains of OR/WA and also the southern Blue Mountains of Oregon. Lastly, a wind advisory remains in effect for southeast winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph this afternoon through tonight for the southern Grande Ronde Valley and Ladd and Pyles canyons.
Precipitation has already begun for the Washington Cascades, east slopes, and Yakima and Kittitas valleys where temperatures are near or below freezing. Snow is beginning to accumulate on paved surfaces where observed road temperatures are in the lower 30s, but many observations remain a few degrees above freezing, thus far precluded any significant accumulating snow. Through the afternoon and early evening, snow is forecast to continue with a trace to 2" for the Yakima Valley and 1-3" for the Kittitas Valley. Warm frontal passage this evening into early tonight presents a challenging precipitation type forecast after warm air overrides the underlying cold air that is currently in place. With cold air trapped in the valleys, this is anticipated to translate to mixed wintry precipitation, including freezing rain. Forecast freezing rain amounts are low confidence (trace to two tenths of an inch). NBM 4.2 probabilities of measurable freezing rain are low (10-40% chance), and probabilities of 0.10" of freezing rain are even lower (1-20% chance). Given chronic over-mixing of cold air in guidance, office concensus is that the NBM probabilities of measurable freezing rain are under-representative of reality. 12Z HRRR members are substantially more aggressive with the areal coverage and amount of freezing rain for the valleys along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and upper Yakima and Kittitas valleys.
Elsewhere, the main snowfall is forecast this afternoon through Sunday for the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon and Washington where 2-8 inches, with locally higher amounts above 5500 feet, are forecast. The forecast for the northern Blues remains highly temperature sensitive, with run-to-run variance in low-level temperatures and any warm nose in CAMs appearing to drive the precipitation type by Sunday morning after warm frontal passage.
Given high ensemble confidence in climatologically unusual snowfall (EFI 0.8-1 with Shift of Tails (SoT) of 1-2 for the northern Blues), combined with NBM 4.2 probabilities of exceeding 4 inches (55-85%) and 6 inches (35-55%) of snowfall, have opted to issue the aforementioned winter weather advisories for the northern Blues. Rational for the advisory for the southern Blues is different - snowfall totals of a trace to 3" for areas below 5500 feet do not meet advisory criteria. However, medium-high confidence in freezing rain this evening through Sunday afternoon for the I-84 corridor between La Grande and North Powder has prompted the winter weather advisory. NBM probabilities of >0.1" of freezing rain are quite low (5-30% chance), but office concensus is that the potential impacts justify having an advisory.
Monday, the atmospheric river comes to an end, but a couple shortwaves passing through the northwest flow aloft will keep light chances of lingering showers for the mountains.
Plunkett/86
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday
Sensible weather concerns through the long term forecast will revolve around the potential for patchy dense fog developing through Wednesday and again Friday in Saturday, while a weak system late Wednesday through Thursday brings limited precipitation impacts.
Ensemble guidance in great agreement that upper level ridging will develop over the PacNW by Tuesday morning, and persist over the region through the first half of Wednesday. Confidence is moderate (60%) that this pattern will lead to the development of patchy dense fog in areas of the Columbia Basin, Kittitas/Yakima valleys, central OR, and mountain valleys. That said, confidence is low (25%) in timing and extent of the fog across the lower elevations for Tuesday and early Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, ensemble guidance depicts an upper shortwave trough and a weak surface cold front impacting the forecast area as it overrides the ridge. However, GFS/ECWMF ensemble atmospheric river landfall probabilities for IVT > 150kg/m/s show very little moisture support for this system. With lack of moisture support, this translates into very light snow/rain accumulations, especially in the mountains where 24 hour probabilities for 1 inch or more of snow is less than 30% in the Cascades, and less than 10% in the northern Blues. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area is expected to remain cool and dry.
Late thursday into Saturday, there is moderate confidence (65%) in upper level ridging building back over PacNW, with dry and cool conditions persisting across the forecast area. Though confidence in fog development is low (15-20%), the pattern would certainly suggest to increasing chances of patchy fog developing across the lower elevations, especially in portions of the Columbia Basin, adjacent valleys, and mountain valleys. Lawhorn/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 40 49 38 43 / 90 90 70 40 ALW 40 48 38 42 / 100 90 70 50 PSC 37 45 36 42 / 90 80 40 20 YKM 31 43 30 44 / 90 60 20 10 HRI 38 48 37 44 / 90 90 60 30 ELN 31 41 31 44 / 90 50 20 0 RDM 39 48 36 47 / 30 80 50 10 LGD 31 39 35 43 / 100 100 80 60 GCD 32 45 37 46 / 70 90 80 50 DLS 37 48 41 49 / 100 90 60 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for ORZ049.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for ORZ502-503.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for WAZ026-027- 030-522-523.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLGD LA GRANDE/UNION COUNTY,OR | 23 sm | 21 min | SSW 18G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 34°F | 30°F | 86% | 30.28 |
Wind History from LGD
(wind in knots)
Pendleton, OR,
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