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FXUS66 KPQR 092259 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 259 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain continues, heavy at times, tonight into early Sunday. Showers later Sun and Mon. Then, high pressure builds across the Pac NW, with a stretch of dry weather along with some cool offshore flow.

SHORT TERM
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Latest atmospheric river event is underway across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as radar shows a warm frontal precipitation band spanning from roughly Tillamook to Portland to Hood River and points northward as of 2 PM Saturday. Heaviest precipitation has thus far been centered along the south WA and far north OR coast where isolated rainfall rates of up to a quarter inch per hour have been observed. Heavy snow is falling in the higher elevations of the south Washington Cascades where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through early Sunday morning. Have also observed some light snow in the vicinity of Hood River into the Upper Hood River Valley where temperatures have struggled to climb out of the low 30s this afternoon. Could continue to see some minor winter weather impacts there into this evening before temperatures warm more solidly above freezing. Have issued a Special Weather Statement to account for that possibility. Temperatures elsewhere in the Gorge have generally been warm enough to allow for all rain and expect this trend to continue into the evening. Across the rest of the Oregon Cascades, still expect snow to quickly transition to rain and thus limit winter weather concerns as snow levels rapidly climb above the passes this evening.

Rain will gradually intensify across the northern half of the area through this evening as the rain band sinks southward into the Willamette Valley and northern Oregon Coast Range. Model QPF amounts have trended upward slightly in recent runs, driving slightly more robust responses on some of the area rivers draining the Willapa Hills into the north Oregon Coast Range. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas, with rivers expected to trend upward this evening and then crest Sunday afternoon. A few locations on the east side of the Coast Range have also seen forecasts trend upward, but have opted to hold off on any additional products at this time as most of these locations are still forecasted to crest below flood stage. All in all, still looking at rainfall totals of 3.5 to locally as much as 6 inches for the coast into the Coast Range through Sunday, with 1 to 1.5 inches into the interior valleys. Expect points south and east to be on the lower end of these totals as the bulk of the rain will not arrive over the southern Willamette Valley until late this evening.

The atmospheric river will continue to drop south across the area and weaken through Sunday morning as a trailing cold front crosses the area, with rain becoming more showering in nature from west to east through Sunday afternoon in the post frontal environment. Expect light rain showers to linger into Monday as a weak trough crosses the region in northwest flow, wit showers winding down Monday night as high pressure build in and ushers in a potentially drier period into the middle of next week. /CB

LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Majority of WPC clusters remain in agreement on upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW early to mid next week. As such, forecast trends drier on Tuesday. Models still differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS model), while others (ECMWF)
favor a fast moving front with clouds and light rain for Wed.
Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wed and Thu.
Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wed and Thu. Ensembles then continue to favor ridging and a drier solution for Friday, with guidance starting to diverge a bit more towards next weekend. -Rockey/CB

AVIATION
The warm front associated with a surface low currently offshore of Haida Gwaii is approaching the coastal waters with overriding southwesterly flow aloft. NW Oregon and SW Washington will continue to experience low level offshore flow through the early evening before shifting more southerly within the warm sector. Expect rain with lowering ceilings and reduced visibility in heavy rain into tonight. The cold front will move southeast and across the area between 02-05z. Winds along the coast have a 40-60% chance of seeing wind gusts up to 45 kt ahead of frontal passage. Breezy southerly winds across the Willamette Valley up to 25 kt. Ceilings below 1500 ft will move inland after 00z Sunday bringing widespread MVFR conditions with rain to the region. As the cold front moves inland conditions will deteriorate directly ahead of the front down to IFR criteria after roughly 18z for much of the Willamette Valley.

PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR ceiling chances increase after 00z Sunday. Winds will slowly shift southerly throughout the forecast period with gusts up to 30 kt possible after 12z. Chances for IFR conditions increase after 18z Sunday ahead of the cold front.
-BMuhlestein

MARINE
Buoy observations show the Gale Warning verifying as of 2 PM this afternoon. Buoy 46041 - Cape Elizabeth to the north is 35-40kt with steep seas and Buoy 46050 is 35 kt with seas beginning to rise. The cold front offshore will draw closer to the coastline into the evening, moving southeast across the coastal waters into early Sunday morning. A windsea will develop with steep seas before transitioning to a westerly swell overnight.
Persistent southwesterly winds over the southern waters could bring seas at buoy 46050 near 20 ft before quickly falling after winds ease. Steep and hazardous seas will linger through Sunday morning, early afternoon.

High pressure will build across the waters thereafter bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft late Sunday and remain at or below through much of the week. -BMuhlestein

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for South Washington Coast- Willapa Hills.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.

Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Vancouver
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Sat -- 04:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:06 AM PST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM PST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM PST     1.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:48 AM PST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:09 PM PST     1.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Knappa
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Sat -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:01 AM PST     2.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:44 AM PST     8.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM PST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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