Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stevenson, WA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:27PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:13 PM PST (21:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevenson, WA
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location: 45.68, -121.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 071841 CCA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1004 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low pressure approaching California will produce periods of light rain across the area today into tonight before drier weather and valley fog return Sunday into at least early Tuesday.

SHORT TERM. Today through Monday . Water vapor satellite imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough sagging southeastward across the Pacific Northwest. The main closed low pressure associated with this shortwave trough is currently approaching the northern California coast. A secondary wave is dropping southeastward along the British Columbia coastline and will be main mechanism that will help to push the current wet weather southeast of the area later tonight and Sunday.

In the immediate short term, an area of mid level deformation is setting up across our northwestern zones, generally along a line extending between Newport and the southwest Washington Cascades. This will likely continue to provide a focus for light, but steady rain into this afternoon across this region. Models are in general agreement this area of mid level deformation will weaken as it slowly sags southeastward across the area late this afternoon into this evening. As a result, the inherited PoP forecast of rain chances decreasing from northwest to southeast tonight into Sunday morning looks on track.

In addition, temperatures have been hovering right around freezing in the upper Hood River valley this morning, albeit mainly just on the warm side of the freezing mark. Based on public and ODOT reports, went ahead and canceled the Winter Weather Advisory given no freezing rain impacts were observed to this point and temperatures should only moderate further today.

Otherwise, a sharp and highly amplified shortwave ridge will build northward across the eastern Pacific late Sunday before shifting eastward across the area Monday. This will likely produce strong inversions and enable plenty of valley fog and low clouds to develop. Given the weak surface winds expected, thinking some areas of the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys may not clear and high temperatures could struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. As a result, have held Monday high temperatures a bit below most model guidance.

The next weakening front still looks on track to bring a good chance for some light rain to the area Tuesday, particularly for our coastal zones. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . No Changes . Previous discussion follows . First wave to push into and potentially through the upper ridge is expected by models to arrive about Tuesday or Tuesday night. Traditionally models tend to overestimate precipitations chances with the first system through, but enough GEFS members and the 00Z EC operational run suggest sufficient energy/moisture to warrant raising pops a bit Tue, as well as spreading pops inland a little quicker.

Remainder of long term discussion unchanged . When examining the WPC 500mb height clusters for next Thursday through Saturday, there is general agreement that a broad deep positively tilted trough will dig southward over the southern Gulf of Alaska while a shortwave ridge builds northward along the West Coast of the US. This pattern appears favorable for an atmospheric river to move northeastward towards the Pacific Northwest. However, there are considerable differences in the models in the amplitude of the shortwave ridge over the West Coast, which makes a big difference in whether or not it will impact Oregon, Washington or British Columbia later next week. /Neuman

AVIATION. An upper level trough slowly sagging southeastward across the area today and tonight will produce periods of light rain. Given pressure gradients will continue to weaken across the areas, winds should decrease later today and tonight across the entire CWA. This will set the stage for a lot of MVFR, IFR and LIFR flight conditions through 18z Sunday across the entire CWA. This includes portions of the coast and Portland metro where east winds are currently helping to produce VFR conditions at the moment, but expect these locations to slowly deteriorate this afternoon and evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Occasional light rain and decreasing east winds should result in VFR conditions trending towards a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Expect these flight restrictions to continue through 18z Sunday. Any clearing of MVFR and VFR ceilings overnight will result in IFR conditions quickly transitioning to LIFR. /Neuman

MARINE. Broad area of low pres along the coast will gradually shift inland over Oregon today and tonight, with main surface low moving into far northern Calif. East to southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 kt will gradually weaken today and tonight. Winds will gradually turn more northerly on Sunday, as high pres builds over the northeast Pac.

Seas have been running around 10 ft in the outer waters, thanks to bit more southerly swell. With seas beginning to subside, the small craft advisory has been allowed to expire. As the southerly swell decreases, the westerly swell will slowly build on Sun, becoming the dominant swell by later Sun afternoon.

Benign pattern over the region for start of next week, with lighter winds and smaller swell. But, that will change later in the week as more active pattern returns, with more winds and larger swells arriving by late Thu and Fri. -DE/Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 63 mi61 min 46°F1007.4 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:37 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:52 AM PST     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM PST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM PST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:02 AM PST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:24 PM PST     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:45 PM PST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.21.31.210.9110.80.60.40.611.41.71.71.51.31.21.210.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:41 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:24 AM PST     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:19 AM PST     8.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:29 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM PST     1.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM PST     6.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.23.32.522.134.467.38.187.25.94.53.22.11.41.42.23.656.16.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.