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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rouses Point, NY

June 25, 2024 2:24 AM EDT (06:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM
Moonrise 11:48 PM   Moonset 8:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rouses Point, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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019 FXUS61 KBTV 250600 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure causing showers this afternoon and evening will move east tonight, and high pressure builds in for tomorrow.
This will lead to a sunny and much warmer day. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and brings the possibility for strong storms and heavy rainfall.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...River valley fog has become entrenched in central Vermont along/east of the Green Mountains, with more localized fog elsewhere, based on webcams and satellite imagery. Meanwhile, narrow strips of mid-level clouds are streaming southward on continued northerly flow aloft. Have modified the fog forecast to account for these observations, although periodic clouds are too transient to capture in the hourly forecast. Overall, forecast is in good shape with no other significant changes made.

Previous Discussion...Showers are expected to dwindle this evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the east and is replaced by building high pressure and ridging. Any additional rainfall from lingering showers will amount to up to 0.25". Ridging will also allow skies to gradually clear throughout the night tonight, and temperatures should drop into the 50s for most, which is roughly seasonable for late June in our forecast area. With clearing skies, high pressure subsidence, and recent rainfall, there is the potential for some patchy fog tonight, particularly in the more typical valleys spots.

The ridge will crest over us tomorrow, and 925mb temperatures are expected to be in the 22-24 C range, which should allow surface temperatures to climb into the 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Increasing moisture in the atmosphere and a shortwave trough will bring clouds into the area from the west throughout the day tomorrow, which could limit temperatures slightly. Tomorrow night, a warm front will cross the forecast area, producing some light rain showers, most likely over northern New York and northern Vermont. Rain will be light, perhaps up to a tenths of an inch at most. This warm front and the increased clouds will allow low temperatures to simmer in the 60s throughout tomorrow night, a noticeable difference from the cooler weather we expect tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Model evolution for Wednesday system has changed a bit from runs 12- 24 hours ago. Most feature a slightly more southerly track resulting in a shift in best instability and track of heaviest rainfall. As such, daytime precipitation chances were largely reduced early Monday before increasing again Monday afternoon and overnight. The system trajectory is now favored more on a southwest/northeast track in the consensus with moderate rain probable across mainly southern Vermont. NAM/mesoscale models continue to be drier with an even farther south placement of the surface low and could see a forecast trend in this direction should other global models/ensembles trend similarly. Still, ample moisture, a forcing mechanism, and elevated instability will keep chances of thunderstorms going late Wednesday into the overnight hours before the surface feature tracks eastward into Maine by Thursday morning. Temperatures should warm into the 80s during the day temperatures cooling into the 50s and 60s overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Shower chances diminish early Thursday with cool air advection and building high pressure under northerly flow.
Dry conditions will likely prevail into the weekend with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Conditions begin to change Saturday ahead of the next system projected to move through the region. Southerly flow will likely increase as models show an amplified trough approaching the region.
Thermal/pressure gradients will be moderately tight resulting in some southerly breezes likely into the 20-30mph range. While the system has system has some robust characteristics and upper level support, amplitude of the longwave favors a fast moving wave. Timing will be key in determining characteristics of sensible weather, but right now frontal passage is favored over Saturday night. Some thunderstorms are projected off of elevated instability and relative forcing, but the nocturnal passage will limit overall strength.
Could see another round of moderate rainfall with this system keeping soils wet. High pressure appears poised to fill in behind this wave with dry conditions probable to start the next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06z Wednesday...Fog is present at EFK and SLK, where IFR/LIFR conditions are favored to persist through around 12Z based on climatology before quickly improving. River valley fog in central Vermont has developed but remains just outside of the MPV terminal. Given satellite trends, have left out prevailing fog there but have tempoed it in from 09Z to 12Z given 30-40% chances of development overnight.

Otherwise, surface winds will remain light/calm at all terminals through morning, then increasing into the 6 to 12 knot range during the day ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These winds will largely be southwesterly across much of northern New York, southerly in the Champlain Valley, westerly at RUT and MPV, and northwesterly at Newport. Winds will trend southerly across the region after 00Z as shower chances develop, mainly in western portions of the airspace. There could be some gusty winds late in the period with these showers with dry low level air in place.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for Sorel, Quebec
   
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Sorel
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Mon -- 01:28 AM EDT     0.82 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.83 meters High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     0.81 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.87 meters High Tide
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Mon -- 03:30 AM EDT     0.75 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.75 meters High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:46 PM EDT     0.71 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     0.75 meters High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Burlington, VT,




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