Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rouses Point, NY
May 15, 2024 6:51 AM EDT (10:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 12:14 PM Moonset 2:21 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 150810 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 410 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards normal over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface front will lift northward back into our area today, and become stationary across Northern New York and Vermont. With this surface boundary remaining anchored across the north country, additional showers are expected today and tonight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Fog that has formed overnight will lift shortly after sunrise. Only a slight chance for thunder mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, but not anticipating any strong storms with a lack of surface based instability present today. Cold front will finally drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers will diminish.
Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with temperatures warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should be a nice day.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work week with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through the overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for Friday. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature trends for Friday continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps around +16C supporting highs well into the 70s with some isolated 80s possible in the deeper valleys. The good news is that humidity won't be an issue with dewpoints only in the 50s, so it should be a nice end to the work week.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of ensemble guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting daily QPF of greater than 0.1" through the period. Where previously a weak cold front looked to swing in Friday night into Saturday, now is progged to weaken and lift north, and a southern stream system which looked to close off over the eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as an open wave and south of the forecast area. As such, the North Country and Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no precipitation under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at times. Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer with highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...It's still pretty tricky whether or not we'll see some BR form overnight. Thus far it has not been very consistent. Winds light and variable through about 12z. About 15z-16z, surface stationary front strengthens and numerous showers will begin to develop with ceilings falling to 1000-2500 ft agl and visibilities 3 to 6SM in heavier showers. There could be some improvement late in the day at KRUT and KMPV to VFR. Winds will become south to southwest 4 to 8 knots, but remain northeast at KMSS. Shower activity wanes after 22z.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 410 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards normal over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface front will lift northward back into our area today, and become stationary across Northern New York and Vermont. With this surface boundary remaining anchored across the north country, additional showers are expected today and tonight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Fog that has formed overnight will lift shortly after sunrise. Only a slight chance for thunder mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, but not anticipating any strong storms with a lack of surface based instability present today. Cold front will finally drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers will diminish.
Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with temperatures warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should be a nice day.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work week with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through the overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for Friday. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature trends for Friday continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps around +16C supporting highs well into the 70s with some isolated 80s possible in the deeper valleys. The good news is that humidity won't be an issue with dewpoints only in the 50s, so it should be a nice end to the work week.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of ensemble guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting daily QPF of greater than 0.1" through the period. Where previously a weak cold front looked to swing in Friday night into Saturday, now is progged to weaken and lift north, and a southern stream system which looked to close off over the eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as an open wave and south of the forecast area. As such, the North Country and Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no precipitation under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at times. Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer with highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...It's still pretty tricky whether or not we'll see some BR form overnight. Thus far it has not been very consistent. Winds light and variable through about 12z. About 15z-16z, surface stationary front strengthens and numerous showers will begin to develop with ceilings falling to 1000-2500 ft agl and visibilities 3 to 6SM in heavier showers. There could be some improvement late in the day at KRUT and KMPV to VFR. Winds will become south to southwest 4 to 8 knots, but remain northeast at KMSS. Shower activity wanes after 22z.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS, Tide feet
Burlington, VT,
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