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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 142 Pm Pst Mon Nov 27 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm pst this evening...
In the main channel..
General seas..5 ft subsiding to 4 ft Tuesday afternoon.
First ebb..Very strong ebb current of 6.82 kt at 423 pm Monday. Seas 8 ft.
SEcond ebb..Ebb current of 3.37 kt at 454 am Tuesday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb..Very strong ebb current of 6.59 kt at 503 pm Tuesday. Seas 7 ft.

PZZ200 142 Pm Pst Mon Nov 27 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure through mid-week. Low pressure moves down the coast from the gulf of alaska through Tuesday. NExt active system arrives Thursday.

FXUS66 KPQR 280459 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 858 PM PST Mon Nov 27 2023

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS
High pressure continues to dry days with chilly mornings through midweek. Active pattern returns late bringing rain and mountain snow to the region late in the week.

DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Upper level ridging remains in place, with gusty winds remaining in place along the Columbia River Gorge east of Corbett. Winds there will be decreasing through the rest of the afternoon and evening, becoming more mild overnight Monday. Fog threat begins to look relatively minimal going forward, though patchy frost in the Willamette Valley continues to be an issue from now until precipitation begins again on Thursday.
Nighttime temperatures remain cool until then as well: for tonight, the Willamette Valley sees a 90% chance of below freezing temperatures, with closer to 30-50% in the Portland metro. Due to inversion conditions, temperatures in the Cascades and Coast Range remain slightly cooler, with 60-80% chance of below freezing temperatures, elevation dependent.

As per DEQ, an Air Quality Advisory has been issued for the southern and central Willamette Valley, as well as an Air Stagnation Advisory at the Lane County Cascade foothills. Due to light winds and inversion conditions, mixing is very difficult as a result. This will be expected to end Thursday morning, when precipitation arrives at the valley.

Late Wednesday night going into Thursday morning, the next trough arrives, signaling a pattern change. Snow levels remain somewhere between 2500-3500 feet during the frontal passage, allowing some snow at higher elevation areas. Accumulations look light, however, with the system overall being fairly weak. In the first 24 hours of rainfall (4am Thu to 4am Fri), the Willamette Valley sees only a 10-20% chance of exceeding 0.5" of rainfall, while the Coast Range, Cascades, and Willapa Hills see a 50-60% chance of the same. A secondary system arrives Friday midday, bringing stronger rainfall.
With winds having a more westerly component, orographic lift over terrain leads to slightly stronger rainfall at elevated areas.

The weekend remains active, with possibly an AR event on Sunday.
CW3E's AR Scale tool shows possibility of a moderate to borderline strong AR event on Sunday going into Monday, with IVT values of 500-750 being possible. This is still liable to change, but small rivers and tributaries may see a 20-30% chance of minor flooding with this stronger rainfall.

AVIATION
High pressure lingers over the region, maintaining clear skies and dry conditions. Will maintain VFR conditions in both VIS and CIGs for most terminals through the TAF period. The exception is the southern Willamette Valley, especially KEUG, which has a 30-50% chance of freezing fog between 06-19z Tuesday.
The rest of the Willamette Valley has a 10-20% chance of freezing fog between 11-19z Tuesday. Again, some exceptions is 10% or less chance of fog for KPDX and KTTD due to easterly winds from the Gorge and 20-30% of freezing fog for KHIO and KKLS.

Areas of frost expected to form on exposed surfaces again overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Significant accumulation is not expected. LLWS may continue through Tuesday around the Columbia River, especially areas near the entrance to the Gorge such as KPDX and KVUO. However, observed LLWS strength as well as probability of LLWS currently remain low, so have omitted from the TAFs. Winds remain easterly through the Gorge with gusts up to 30-35 kts.

** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR for the next 24 hours. Easterly winds continue around 10-12 kts as of 05z at KPDX and are expected to lower below 10 kts by around 09z. These elevated east winds will likely eliminate any fog chances forming Tuesday morning with 10% chance or less in the areas surrounding KPDX. If surface winds become calm and westerly or variable again Tuesday morning, with the easterly winds aloft, LLWS is possible. Frost is expected to form again overnight and Tuesday morning, especially in shaded areas. -JH/HEC

MARINE
Broad high pressure lingers over the NE Pacific which will keep conditions moderated through mid-week. Will see winds slowly ease as the low aloft shifts well south towards California, and the high pressure once again becomes the dominate feature.
Seas too are easing, and will remain below 8 ft at 14 seconds through at least Thursday. As a quick "heads-up", there appears to be a strengthening low pressure system approaching the region which will cause the long range swell to amplify and bring significantly higher seas and stronger winds after Friday.
-Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County.

WA...None.

PZ...None.

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Nehalem
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Tue -- 01:49 AM PST     6.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM PST     2.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:31 PM PST     8.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:24 PM PST     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Brighton
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:23 AM PST     6.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:17 AM PST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:05 PM PST     9.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:22 PM PST     -1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

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