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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 226 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A fast moving system will cross the coastal waters early Thursday maintaining hazardous seas into the late morning. High pressure will build over the region Friday. Broad area of low pressure in the gulf of alaska will send a front towards the waters over the weekend bringing chances for gales.

FXUS66 KPQR 071817 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1015 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

Updated public forecast discussion...

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure moving across the region today, along with cooler air aloft, will provide plenty of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two along the coast. Snow will pile up in the Cascades. Will get a break in the weather for Friday, with only a small chance of showers. But rain returns for the weekend. Cooler and drier weather expected to return next week.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

10 AM UPDATE: No major changes made to the current forecast. Current radar imagery and observations as of 10 AM PST show scattered, light showers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Steadier rain has been falling from Linn County southward, as a shortwave trough moves in an pushes a cold front through the OR/CA border. The current winter weather advisory for the Cascades remains on track.
Observations show around a Trace to 4 inches of snow have fallen across the Cascades. -Alviz

SHORT TERM CONTINUED: Will likely get some breezy south winds along the coast today, then winds turn west to southwest behind the low as it moves onshore and inland over the Willapa Hills and on to the east. While high winds not expected, should see gusts 25 to 35 mph through about late morning.

Again, plenty of showers today as the system moves inland. Will also have a few isolated thunderstorms on the coastal waters, spreading onshore by daybreak. Once the low moves inland, westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow with cool unstable air. Snow levels are running around 3500 to 4000 ft this am. With the favorable west to southwest flow, will have improved orographic flow. While precipitation amounts will not all that heavy, should be enough to maintain decent snowfall across the Cascades. Generally, look to get 10 to 20 inches of snow in the Cascades for today through early Friday am. As such, will put up Winter Weather Advisory for areas above 3500 feet for today through mid-Friday am.

Showers will gradually decrease later tonight into Friday morning, as get weak ridging. May even have enough to have rather large period of dry weather. But, will maintain some chance PoPs for many areas, primarily over the Cascades. Do think will drier weather by Friday evening, with that dry weather lasting through most of Friday night.
-Alviz/Rockey

LONGER TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)...
Next system arriving on Saturday. But models have been slowing this system down, and delaying the rain across the region. So, with coordination with neighboring offices, will slow rain arrival on Sat.
Will spread rain inland along the coast by afternoon, and further inland in the afternoon (mainly the northern zones, or Portland northward. Bulk of this system will push over most of the region Sat night into Sunday morning. Not the heavy rain as seen early this week, but will get enough rain for some rises on rivers. Still, no renewed flooding expected. Rainfall generally in 1 to 3 inches range along the coast/coast mtns, and across southwest Washington, with 0.50 to 1 inch for inland lowlands.

WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast early next week bringing a couple of dry days to the region. However, there are indications that another frontal system could impact the region sometime mid to late week, though uncertainty is high in precipitation amounts at this time. /Rockey/Alviz

AVIATION
Widespread mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with the occluded front moving northeast, extending southeast into the Cascades.
Expect VFR conditions early Thursday morning, with HRRR suggesting chances around 10-30% for MVFR cigs through 18Z Thursday. MVFR cigs may return later Thursday morning into the afternoon as an upper trough transits west to east across the area, however guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs returning around 18-19Z so uncertainty remains.

A weakening surface low will approach the north coast around 12-16Z Thu, so will see southerly wind increase with gusts 25-30 kt along the coast and 15-20 kt for inland TAF sites through about 21Z.

*Please note that the automated weather station at KONP (Newport) is currently out of service. This site is not maintained by the National Weather Service. Because of this, the TAF produced for KONP is based on model data without the input of observations, and may not be representative of current conditions.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions through Thursday. Guidance suggests a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs throughout the TAF period. Increasing winds around 16Z may help mix the lower layers, reducing the likelihood of MVFR cigs during this time. /JH

MARINE
A dynamic pattern will maintain active weather across the waters through the weekend. Seas still holding at 13-15 ft this am. Winds and seas will diminish going into this evening but will likely remain above 13 ft.

The next frontal system, currently near buoy 46005, is fast approaching. The low is expected to cross the coastal waters early Thursday. Model guidance is showing seas building in the southwest sector of the low for a brief period up to 17 ft within the region of strongest winds. Gale Force wind gusts are possible but they're not all that widespread. The most likely area of Gales will be in PZZ272 but depending on where the low tracks this could shift.

High pressure will build across the waters bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 10-12 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts likely ahead of the cold front which is expected to cross the waters Saturday evening. -BMuhlestein/JH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PST this morning for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.

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Nehalem
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Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:31 AM PST     1.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM PST     6.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:03 PM PST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:14 PM PST     4.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Brighton
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Thu -- 01:29 AM PST     2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM PST     7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:01 PM PST     2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST     5.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

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