Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 1:56 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 854 Am Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure has returned over the coastal waters and will continue through the weekend before the next front arrives Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS66 KPQR 170936 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 236 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front that brought very light precipitation has shifted eastward with only a few lingering showers trailing. Today will be mostly dry with onshore flow.
Another shortwave trough pushes over the forecast area on Saturday, but yet again, precipitation is minimal. Potential for more active weather starting Monday.

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday...Fairly benign weather for the next few days as the pattern appears to be mostly "rinse and repeat". Radar shows a few lingering showers behind the cold front, but it produced very little rain. Areas that received the highest amounts were over the Mt Hood Natl Forest at just around 0.25 inch in the last 6 hours as of 3 AM. The rain shadow was in full effect with the valleys only seeing a trace of rain. Zonal flow remains today with little to no actionable sensible weather
Temperatures will be mild in the upper 60s
similar to Thursday. Onshore winds will slowly ease as the pressure gradient lessens so will see less windy conditions within the Columbia River Gorge and the ranges today.

Moving into Saturday, another shortwave will advect over the Pacific Northwest. This trough has a low centered over the Alaska Panhandle and will shift southeastward through the day.
The main band of energy is just to the north over central Washington so we will see more of the southern band of precipitation. Looking at another 20-30% chance of any measurable precipitation on Saturday. Potential for slightly cooler temperatures as a -2 degree C airmass moves in aloft at 850 mb (~5,000 ft). Again, minimal concerns. -Muessle


LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...Zonal flow to weakly ridged pattern incoming on Sunday as the trough from Saturday exits, and the next, potentially more robust longwave trough drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. This incoming system has the potential to bring more rain than we have seen as of late.
Looking at the long range ensemble clusters at 500 mb, there still is quite a bit of variation both in the intensity and the timing. Tuesday through Wednesday are the general targets for the precipitation and wind, but two of the ensemble outputs are showing almost a weak ridge. If this were to manifest, then rain would be much less and temperatures would be higher. The temperature spread has become much narrower in regards to the 25th-75th percentile, but the 10th to 90th is still quite large on Monday and Tuesday. Some of the global long range models are suggesting warmer temperatures on Tuesday than on either Monday or Wednesday. This is due to more of a ridging pattern within the GFS. The mean temperature in Portland is 73 degrees F, 70 F in Hood River, 61 F in Tillamook, and 70 F in Eugene.

On Wednesday, the front will be the most robust with cooler temperatures (potentially) and more precipitation. Probabilities are around 60% for measurable rain, with chances for over 0.25 inch over the Cascades by Wednesday afternoon. There continues to be broad variability in the long term pattern so have used the grand ensemble in order to capture most of the pattern outcomes. Lingering showers on Thursday which are dependent on the timing and location of the front. -Muessle



AVIATION
At 09z Friday, a weak front had pushed east of the Cascades and was moving into central Oregon. Radar observations showed rapidly decreasing showers across western OR/WA in the wake of the frontal passage while satellite observations depicted clearing skies over most of the Willamette Valley. As such, VFR flight conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours for inland terminals (only exception being KEUG where a localized MVFR stratus deck has developed and will most likely linger over or near the terminal through roughly 15z Friday).

Cigs along the north coast have lifted to VFR thresholds while MVFR cigs remained along the central coast. Cannot rule out LIFR/IFR cigs at KONP through 15z Friday (20-25% chance), however probabilities for VFR cigs increase rapidly after 15z.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions through Friday evening as skies begin clearing out towards 12z Friday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Winds will generally remain out of the northwest sustained between 5-10 kt. -TK

MARINE
Northwest winds have increased to around 15-25 kt over most of the waters early Friday morning in the wake of a frontal passage. However, winds will begin decreasing after sunrise. Seas will be rather steep and choppy on Friday due to a fresh northwest swell around 7 to 9 ft with a dominant wave period between 7 and 9 seconds.

High pressure over the upcoming weekend will result in a typical summertime northerly flow regime with wind gusts peaking in strength during the afternoon/evening hours each day. The strongest winds will occur over the southern waters where marginal small craft advisory level wind gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-40% chance on Saturday increasing to a 30-60% chance on Sunday).

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-50% chance). -TK



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251- 252-271-272.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ273.

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Nehalem
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Fri -- 03:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 AM PDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:21 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:17 PM PDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Brighton
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Fri -- 03:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:29 AM PDT     2.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:55 AM PDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:12 PM PDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:51 PM PDT     6.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

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