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LSZ145 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 535 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled...
the affected areas were... Duluth mn to port wing wi...
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9151 4686 9121 4708 9107 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2234z 263deg 40kt 4703 9088 4691 9103 4677 9123

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 292339 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 539 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Key Messages: - Snow returns Sunday into Monday for possibly a couple of inches of snow in NW WI.
- Warm temperatures through the week will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Fairly quiet weather continues with not a whole lot to talk about in terms of large systems. Temperatures will run above normal through the week with winds a little gusty from the west today and Thursday, but overall not too bad.

The main focus of the forecast period will be on a system that develops over WI on Sunday in the pit of an upper level trough.
Moisture will be sufficient with PWATs of 0.5" sneaking in from the east and temperatures sufficiently cold to cause snow. So, increased PoPs a bit over NBM guidance and also maintained higher than NBM mean QPF following the mid shifts lead. Overall, do not see this as a large system by any standards, but it may cause some travel impacts with up to 4" of snow in NW WI. Some of the snow may spill over to the North Shore and Twin Ports given the geographic location of the system on the GFS. If the Euro is more correct, the system will miss our forecast area to the south.

Following this a clipper system is expected to cross early next week for another round of light snow.

Still no large storms on the horizon.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period aside from some MVFR ceilings on Thursday morning for INL, HIB, DLH, and briefly at HYR as a stratus deck moves south out of Canada. Can't rule out some spotty IFR ceilings, but the potential remains very low. Some very light snow showers are also possible near INL on Thursday morning.

Light southwest winds this evening turn northwesterly late tonight through the end of the TAF period, with mid-morning to afternoon gusts around 15 to 18 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 117 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Westerly winds continue to rise and fall above and below small craft criteria. Did not get too cute with hazards and kept many areas rolling with small craft advisories through Thursday afternoon. Nothing too substantial until Sunday when a smaller system may kick up some northeasterly winds, but there still is quite a bit of variability in the guidance on this system.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 23 32 16 29 / 0 0 0 0 INL 22 29 15 29 / 10 10 0 0 BRD 23 33 17 31 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 20 35 14 32 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 25 36 17 33 / 0 0 0 0

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-146>148.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Thursday for LSZ140>143-150.

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